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COMMENTARY ON ECONOMIC AND PLANNING ISSUES

ERROLD F. MOODY JR.

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN FINANCIAL PLANNING

LIFE AND DISABILITY INSURANCE ANALYST 0626414

REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISER

WWW.EFMOODY.COM

REBALANCING- a 48%S&P 500, 16% small cap, 16% international, and 20% bond index, over the past 20 years, earned a 9.49% annual return without rebalancing and a 9.71% return if rebalanced annually. That's worth describing as "noise," and suggests that formulaic rebalancing with precision is not necessary.

That said, investing has radically changed with the computer and Internet. All best are now off for the future.


READ? One in four read no books at all last year. Women and older people read more but the topics were religious and fiction.

It's nice that they read but unless there is some non fiction, I am not sure how much good it will do save for the entertainment. It takes hard reading to exist in this world.


QUANT FUNDS: As elegant as the models are, they cannot predict unpredictable events, or human panic, some traders say. Further, too many quant funds are full of myopic brainiacs, overly reliant on their tools.

"Most are idiot savants brought to industrial proportion," Nassim Nicholas Taleb and author of the book on improbability, "The Black Swan.".

"They are very smart in front of a textbook but not smart enough to understand very elementary things in reality.

Taleb believes in monkey-wrench events that shatter the models of the quant-jocks. He says their algorithms don't adequately account for huge, rare anomalies, such as the current surprise credit crunch. Or the Russian credit crisis in 1998 that nearly put the superstar quant fund of the time, Long-Term Capital Management, out of business in a matter of days, saved by cash infusion organized by the Federal Reserve.

The sentiment is reminiscent of the demise of Enron, a company said to have been designed by geniuses but run by idiots. The oil-and-gas trader used next-generation financial tools designed by brilliant mathematicians. But they couldn't overcome the inept and criminal actions of the management.

The allure of a unifying, perfect mathematical formula is powerful; it is an alchemy for the enlightened age. Math's universal principles underlie and suffuse everyday life and the workings of the cosmos, offering a glimpse of the eternal. In the frequently irrational financial markets, mathematic models offer the hope of cool reason and certitude, a sort of godlike wisdom.

The quant funds thrive on volatility -- it's how they make their profit margins. But recent weeks have proved too volatile for some of the funds, many of them highly leveraged, which seemingly all at once got spooked into seeking liquidity.

"It became increasingly transparent that many of the highly sophisticated quant funds employed similar investment approaches and held similar core holdings," Thomson Financial wrote in an analysis of the role of the 25 largest quant funds in the market meltdown. "This resulted in the funds selling similar long stocks and covering similar short positions." Oops.






JUST SLAVING AWAY (NY Times) Americans earned a smaller average income in 2005 than in 2000, the fifth consecutive year that they had to make ends meet with less money than at the peak of the last economic expansion, new government data shows.

While incomes have been on the rise since 2002, the average income in 2005 was $55,238, still nearly 1 percent less than the $55,714 in 2000, after adjusting for inflation.

It’s going to get worse. Wages are not going anyplace- actually we are going to see a lot of layoffs. Further, inflation is still going up.


I 've always wanted to have someone to hold, someone to love.

After having met you .. I've changed my mind.


CHARITY BEGINS AT HOME: A former Salvation Army fund raiser pleaded guilty to 12 felony counts of forgery, money laundering, racketeering, and theft. He defrauded the group and four elderly donors of about $350,000 in cash and property. Checks and property deeds donated to the charity were instead steered into a holding company. An anonymous e-mail tip led to his arrest. But the jerk had been previously imprisoned in South Dakota for stealing $2.2-million from an elderly couple in Colorado.

Didn't anyone check that he was previously imprisoned before hiring??? I know it’s not easy, but c’mom, it’s the Salvation Army not a mom and pop business.


PROFITS COME FROM ALL PLACES: (NY Times)


Government figures indicate that the profits of American companies from their overseas operations have been growing at a pace of 13.7 percent in the current decade, nearly twice the rate in this country.

In the 1960s, when the American economy was much less open to the world, about 7 percent of profits came from overseas. By 2007 first quarter, that share was up to 29 percent.

But now look at where we are. Company profits are going to go no place for quite a while.


TRUST NO ONE: On a July morning five years ago, 30 residents of Sun City Roseville gathered at the retirement community's clubhouse for an investment seminar led by one of their own, Sun City resident Robert Koppel.

He outlined an unusual opportunity, a chance to buy shares in life insurance policies held by others. When the policyholders died, the investments -- known as "life settlements" or "viaticals" -- would pay hefty returns.

"This was a gold mine we were falling into," said a widow who invested $30,000.

Today the program is in tatters, and investors are facing big losses. Their “friend” and seven others have been indicted in connection with what officials called a $25 million Ponzi scheme that mainly targeted seniors. Of the 500 or so investors, "many ... are in their 50s, 60s, and 70s,"

The firm used a fake doctor to mislead investors about the policyholders' life expectancies. The firm's bonding company, which was supposed to pay investors if the policyholders didn't die on time, was a fraud. Then, as the scheme unraveled, Secure Investment used cash from new investors to keep up premium payments so the old policies wouldn't lapse.

Well, the "investors" got what they wanted- someone they could trust. He was part of their community. Bet they did no other homework.   

What might that have been? Checking for licensing, both for the agents as well as the entity. None? So why do it? What about reading a book on Viaticals? Bet not one of them did. They got screwed. Life sucks. If you are not going to do some hard review, this is very well the end result.


INVESTMENT ADVISERS- Fidelity reports that 22% of households with over $1,000,000 in investible assets use independent advisors and those advisers, on average, manage 56% of those investors' portfolios. Top reason is the perception that independent advisors put clients' interests ahead of those of a firm.


YO FATSO! That's a lot of food- A child requires about 13 million calories before producing more food for their community than they take in.


PBGC- The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) owes 32,000 missing people a total of $133 million in pension funds.


SCARY- projections based on the Health and Retirement Study, a survey of 22,000 Americans over the age of 50 sponsored by the National Institute on Aging found that by 2019, nearly a tenth of elderly retirees would be devoting more than half of their total income to out-of-pocket health expenses.


ENHANCED INDEX FUNDS: (WSJ) Prior to the recent downturn, these lagged behind market benchmarks in performance, and the magnitude of their losses has taken market folks by surprise, given the relatively conservative nature of these investments whose biggest investors include pension funds. Enhanced index funds typically mimic a benchmark index, such as the Standard & Poor's 500 for stocks and the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate Index for bonds, while attempting to boost returns by, for instance, exploiting price differences through the purchase of derivatives such as futures and options.

"Typically, enhanced index funds have very reliable higher returns than the benchmark index they track" .

"It was eye-opening to people to see larger-than-expected deviations in the losses in enhanced index funds


"If these funds are underperforming the benchmark, it calls into question how stable the model is. "Since the underperformance is widespread, there are also questions on how different the models are from each other and what the value addition is. "It's not a disaster, but it is a disappointment."

So once the market responds again, use these with a bit of caution.

  

EMPLOYEES COPE WITH CARING FOR PARENTS, OTHER FAMILY MEMBERS

With changing demographics and increased longevity, a "sandwich generation" has emerged, as employees often find themselves caring for both parents and children at the same time. It is estimated that 34 million adult children, mostly women, spend an average 21 hours a week as caregivers for other adults. Forty-one percent of baby boomers with a living parent say they provide financial or personal assistance to their moms and dads, while another 37% expect to do so at some point. Between lost wages, pensions, and Social Security benefits, such help comes at an average cost of $659,000 per person. But the cost is also physical and emotional, as caregivers often suffer from elevated rates of chronic conditions like high blood pressure, and old familial tensions can be brought to the surface. These tolls are exacerbated by an ongoing shift away from nursing home care. Grown children are turning to less-restrictive options like assisted living and adult day care out of concern for both finances and maintaining their parents' independence. However, such alternatives require families to take on additional responsibilities and involvement in care; 8% of baby boomers say parents now live with them. Even when a nursing home is chosen, families visit frequently and must be in constant communication with medical and non-medical staff. With a growing number of workers facing these situations, some employers have created programs that include financial and mental support, such as "backup emergency adult care," where costs are subsidized for a trained professional to visit a home and provide help. Many workers can take unpaid time off for parental care under the federal Family and Medical Leave Act.


I 'm so miserable without you, it's almost like you're here.


 ALZHEIMERS: The value of "free" services provided by informal family caregivers to their chronically ill, disabled or aged loved ones jumped to $306 billion, a 19 percent increase over four years. New York is the third-largest caregiving state with services provided valued at $20 billion, behind California and Texas.

Although we know that depression is a major factor in most caregiving, according to a Yale study, 30 percent of the respondents with loved ones in hospice care experienced what could be described as a major depressive disorder.

According to Stanford University, 40 percent of Alzheimer's caregivers will die from stress-related disorders before the loved ones for whom we care.


INDEXES: Over longer time periods, indices continue to exceed a majority of active funds. Over the past three years (and five years), the S&P 500 has beaten 65.7% (72.2%) of large-cap funds, the S&P MidCap 400 has outperformed 68.6% (77.4%) of mid-cap funds, and the S&P SmallCap 600 has outpaced 80.2% (77.7%) of small-cap funds.


DEFINED BENEFIT - The Employee Benefits Research Institute reports only 16 million private-sector workers were covered by traditional single-employer defined-benefit plans in 2005, down 22% from the total in 1988 and the number of actual plans is down 74% since 1985.


BOND DEFAULTS- When a company defaults, investors usually are able to recoup only about 40 percent the par value of the bond



LTC- About 3.3% of such claims are rejected. Data from 2005, shows just one of every 160,000 LTC policies are rescinded by carriers. In 2005, carriers reported over 519,000 claims received out of more than 5.9 million policies,

Looked at on a per-person basis, as required by California and some other states, 90% of claims were counted as eligible. Counting on a per-person basis means that once an individual files a claim, later claims submitted by the same person are not considered new. Of submitted claims counted on a per-person basis, about 8% were not paid because of benefit limitations specified in the policy.

When claims are counted per payment, 12 monthly nursing home bills submitted for one person would count as 12 claims .. Counted per person, those same 12 payments would count as a single claim.

Of the 38 companies reporting data, 24 reported information on a per-person basis, representing 63% of in-force policies and 9% of the number of claims reported to AHIP for 2005.

Using the NAIC or per-payment definition, about 3.1% of claims were denied, while using claims counted on a per-person basis, 6.2% were denied. By weighting the data to account for differences between the 2 methods, AHIP came up with the 3.3% rejection rate.

Many claims were turned down because policy terms had not been met. Of all claims not considered eligible, about 40% of those counted on a per-person basis and 47% of those counted on a per-payment basis had not met the policy’s elimination period.

Almost no claims were rejected due to a pre-existing condition. Yet just recently, another survey said that 25% of claims in California were denied. Just not possible to have that much discrepancy. We will have to wait for more data. Hopefully truthful.


COSTS TO LEAVE BROKERAGE FIRMS UP - Investors are paying more to escape the clutches of brokerage firms. Costs to use the automated customer account transfer (ACAT) system and non-ACAT termination fees have both gone up over the past several years. It can cost between $10,000 and $20,000 to move a book of business between firms and much of that cost is being shifted to customers. The NYSE warned investors about potential transfer problems, saying that hassles can be made worse with an increase in the number of products customers own.



READ A PROSPECTUS???!!!! JUST WON'T HAPPEN."- Joe Borg, President of the NASAA (National Association of Securities Administration Association) and the Alabama Department of Securities


FIDUCIARY??:The CFP Board announced that the nearly 55,000 planners it oversees must put clients’ interests first, act as fiduciary and disclose the scope of their engagement and their compensation when engaging in planning activities.

“The revised standards also require CFP professionals who provide financial planning services do so with the duty of care of a “fiduciary,” a term partly defined as acting “in the best interest of the client.” The heightened duty of care significantly strengthens the current requirement that financial planning services be performed “in the interest of the client,” Schaeffer said.

The new standards also require CFP professionals to:

• Disclose the terms and scope of each planning engagement in writing, as well as potential conflicts of interest.

• Disclose their method of compensation, as well as other sources of compensations (such as referrals) and descriptions of their source.

• Use the term “fee-only” only when the only source of a CFP licensee’s compensation comes from client fees.

• Self report any criminal investigations and regulatory problems.

• Maintain tougher continuing education standards.

My comments- I think the arrogance of the Board is astounding. Planners have to have competency- an issue not addressed in any of the communiques. Brokers have never been taught the fundamentals of investing. CFPs get one semester on money. It is a good designation but it scratches only the surface. However when you add in the element of fiduciary, all MUST have competency. Not one comprehensive planner charging a fee is legal in California (except me) since one must be a Life and Disability Analyst to review any life policies. Not one NAPFA planner. No FPA member.

Once the attorneys get a hold of this, a lot of planners will lose everything simply because they are liars and frauds, grossly incompetent, conveniently stupid or simply unethical.

Was I clear enough? If you hold yourself out to be a fiduciary, you must know what you are doing. 99 44/100% of planners do not. .




CAYMAN ISLANDS: (NY Times) As recently as a decade ago, regulators and law enforcement officials regarded the Caymans, an outpost 480 miles south of Miami that once served as a shelter for pirates like Blackbeard, as a hotbed for money laundering and other dubious financial schemes. Today, it is the corporate home for what the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority estimates to be three out of every four of the world’s hedge funds — more than anywhere else — thanks to its friendly tax and regulatory regimes, as well as an army of foreign bankers, tax lawyers, accountants and fund administrators who make it all work.

Perfectly legal Caymans-based corporations and partnerships that allow major investors to avoid taxes of up to 35 percent that the Internal Revenue Service levies on unearned business income. Cayman tax laws also help American fund managers legally defer domestic taxes on their personal profits by channeling them offshore through their funds.

Some 8,500 investment funds are registered in the Cayman Islands, according to the agency — a near-tripling since 2001.

Despite the Cayman officials’ insistence on propriety, many high-profile financial debacles have washed up on its shores. Enron, the energy company that collapsed amid a huge fraud, used 700 secret, Cayman-based partnerships and entities to carry out financial sleight of hand.

High-profile hedge funds that collapsed more recently — including Bayou Group and Wood River Capital Management — were registered in the Cayman Islands. Both of those funds took advantage of the island’s secrecy and lax regulations to cheat investors and avoid more transparent financial disclosures,


A couple is lying in bed. The man says, "I am going to make you the happiest woman in the world."

The woman replies, "I'll miss you..."


ASSET PROTECTION- (Julianne Frank)  Federal Laws preempt state laws

In October of 2005, Congress threw out the bankruptcy code and rang in the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Cruelty to the Poor Consumer Protection Act----BAPCPA, as it is known--—and everything you thought you knew about your “protected” assets may have gone the way of the dodo.

Let’s take Florida. Most debtors in Florida are told that no matter what, their home is safe from a creditor attack. Florida and four other states have what is known as the “unlimited homestead exemption.” What is that? It’s law that says citizens of the state can not have their homes taken by a creditor no matter how much it is worth...it can’t be liened, can’t be levied against, and can’t be attached. Sounds good, right?

But BAPCPA changed all that. The new federal bankruptcy laws say the unlimited homestead exemption may not apply, and under the principal of federalism, federal laws preempt any contrary state law. “So what?," you say,“I'll simply avoid filing for bankruptcy.” Great idea....but what if someone forces you into bankruptcy?

Is that possible? Sure is....and it is known as “Involuntary Bankruptcy.” Anyone can file an action in bankruptcy court seeking to declare another person bankrupt...and it is not as rare as you might think. And with the enhanced powers vested in creditors under the new bankruptcy code, Involuntary Bankruptcy (we’ll call it “IB”) may well become the new weapon of choice for pursuing creditors.

It only takes one

If you owe less than twelve creditors, it only takes one creditor to throw you into an IB. All they have to do is:

1) Pay the filing fee

2) State that you are not paying a debt you owe

3) Prove it.

They do not even have to use a process server–the petition to throw you into IB can be served on you through the U.S. Mail!

If you don’t respond, you’re toast. If you can’t prove the debt is bogus, you’re toast.

Let’s take our scenario that opened this article. You are a Florida debtor, and you think your home is safe. A creditor has rendered you involuntarily bankrupt. Your Florida homestead rights now give way to the new bankruptcy rules—and those rules can cost you your home.

Exemptions compromised by the IB

If you owned your home for less than 40 months, or only moved to your state within the last couple of years, or you stuffed any cash into the home...you face the prospect that the creditor may reach your home and take it from you.

Using IB, creditors may also be able to reach other types of assets you thought were exempt. That is why the IB is increasingly becoming a weapon of choice for creditors...and why sophisticated Asset Protection is more important than ever before.


LTC- ., only about 8 million LTC policies have been sold in this country.

A 55-year-old individual considering long term care insurance protection can expect to pay $665 a year if married or $1,075 if single

A 65-year-old purchasing comparable coverage would pay $1,292 if married or $1,923 if single.

The costs are about the same as 2006.

The annual index measures current costs for top-selling LTC policies that offer the ability to receive care either at home or in a skilled care facility.

In the past year, some carriers introduced new policies that provide lower-cost coverage for younger individuals who are in good health as well as for nonsmokers, individuals who are married or residing with a partner (since the other person traditionally provides care).

Consumers can reduce premiums about 9% by paying premiums annually rather than monthly, and 8% by being accepted for coverage before their next birthday.

The study compares costs for plans that provide benefits for 3 years. It priced plans that provide $100 in benefits per day, or $110,000 over 3 years, and $150 in daily benefits, or $172,000 over 3 years, for a 55-year-old insured.

If benefits increased 5% compounded annually, the actual benefits would grow to $390,000 for the policy with the $100 daily benefit by the time the insured reached age 80, and to $585,000 for the policy with the $150 daily benefit, Slome says.

In 10 years, if prices rose 5% per year, an individual would need a $240 daily benefit to equal the coverage provided by a $150 daily benefit today.

The average cost of a $240-per-day benefit would range from $3,272 to $4,823.


Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

Isaac Asimov


Theft: 2 million motor vehicles were stolen in 2006.


Healthcare Costs Could Consume Social Security Benefits

A 65-year-old couple retiring in 2007 will need about $215,000 to cover medical costs in retirement, according to Fidelity Investments’ latest healthcare cost estimate. This figure is a 7.5% increase over the 2006 estimate of $200,000. A 65-year-old worker, who is earning $60,000 and retires at the end of the year, should expect 50% of their pre-tax Social Security benefit to be used to pay for personal healthcare expenses in the next 16 to 18 years.

The 2007 estimate assumes that people do not have employer-sponsored retiree healthcare coverage. The estimates include expenses associated with Medicare Part B and D premiums, co-payments, co-insurance, deductibles, excluded benefits, and out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs. It does not include other health-related expenses, such as over-the-counter medications, most dental services, and long-term care.


SOCIAL SECURITY: 2017 the government will start paying out more each year to Social Security beneficiaries than it will collect in Social Security taxes, and by 2040, funding will be sufficient to pay only 74% of projected annual benefits that year.:


MEDICAID: Runs out of money by 2017. If you are old, don’t get sick.


CORPORATE OWNED ANNUITIES: Under the corporate insured annuity strategy, the corporation would buy and own an income payout annuity and life insurance policy on the shareholder. One of the immediate drawbacks of a corporation owning an annuity on the life of a shareholder is the annuity does not qualify as a prescribed annuity, as regulation 304(1)(c)(iii) states that the holder of a prescribed annuity must be an individual, testamentary trust, or spousal trust. Therefore, a corporateowned annuity does not receive the preferential prescribed annuity tax treatment, and the corporate-owned annuity will have a variable amount of taxable income every year. The good news is that the amount of taxable income will decrease each year the payment is made, as future payments will be made up of a larger capital component, and a lower investment component.


INSURANCE TODAY:

Universal Life, 34%

Whole Life, 25%

Term Life, 24%

Variable Life, 17%


LTC: The average annual premium for LTCI policies in force is $1500. But that is deceiving since old policies cost less- and did not include assisted living.





NATIONAL CENTER ON ELDER ABUSE, STUDY ON ABUSE OF ADULTS AGE 60+, NATIONAL TRENDS- ABUSE OF VULNERABLE ADULTS OF ALL AGES

• APS received a total of 565,747 reports of elder and vulnerable adult abuse for persons of all ages (50 states, plus Guam and the District of Columbia). This represents a 19.7% increase from the 2000 Survey (472,813 reports).

• APS investigated 461,135 total reports of elder and vulnerable adult abuse for persons of all ages (49 states). This represents a 16.3% increase from the 2000 Survey (396,398 investigations).

• APS substantiated 191,908 reports of elder and vulnerable adult abuse for victims of all ages (42 states). This represents a 15.6% increase from the 2000 Survey (166,019 substantiated reports).

• The average APS budget per state was $8,550,369, compared to an average of $7,084,358 reported in the 2000 Survey (42 states).

Statewide Reporting Numbers

• APS received a total of 253,426 reports on persons aged 60+ (32 states).

• APS investigated a total of 192,243 reports on persons aged 60+ (29 states).

• APS substantiated 88,455 reports on persons aged 60+ (24 states).

• APS received a total of 84,767 reports of self-neglect on persons aged 60+ (21 states).

• APS investigated a total of 82,007 reports of self-neglect on persons aged 60+ (20 states).

• APS substantiated 46,794 reports of self-neglect on persons aged 60+ (20 states).

• The most common sources of reports of abuse of adults 60+ were family members (17.0%), social services workers (10.6%), and friends and neighbors (8.0%).

Categories of Elder Abuse, Victims Aged 60+

• Self-neglect was the most common category of investigated reports (49,809 reports or 29.4%), followed by caregiver neglect (26.1%) and financial exploitation (18.5%).

• Self-neglect was the most common category of substantiated reports (26,752 reports or 39.3%), followed by caregiver neglect (21.6%) and financial exploitation (13.8%).

Substantiated Reports, Victims Aged 60+

• States reported that 65.7% of elder abuse victims were female (15 states).

• Of the victims aged 60+, 42.8% were 80 years of age and older (20 states).

• The majority of victims were Caucasian (77.1%) (13 states).

• The vast majority (89.3%) of elder abuse reports occurred in domestic settings (13 states).

Substantiated Reports, Alleged Perpetrators of Victims Aged 60+

• States reported that 52.7% of alleged perpetrators of abuse were female (11 states).

• Over three-fourths (75.1%) of alleged perpetrators were under the age of 60 (7 states).

• The most common relationships of victims to alleged perpetrators were adult child (32.6%) and other family member (21.5%) (11 states).

• Twenty-one states (40.4%) maintain an abuse registry or database of alleged perpetrators, while 31 (59.6%) do not.

Interventions and Outcomes, Victims Aged 60+

• Over half (53.2%) of cases were closed because the client was no longer in need of services or the risk of harm was reduced (8 states). Other reasons for closure were the death of the client, client entering a long-term care facility, client refusing further services, client moving out of the service area, unable to locate client, and client referred to law enforcement.

• Only four states, Colorado, Connecticut, Louisiana, and Massachusetts, and Guam provided information on outcomes of APS involvement.

Recommendations

• Accurate and uniform data must be continuously collected at both state and national levels so that abuse trends can be tracked and studied. A concerted effort is necessary to create uniform definitions of, and measures for reporting abuse. As a baseline, all states need to be able to provide the information that this survey requested.

• States should collect detailed age and gender specific information on race and ethnicity of victims and alleged perpetrators. Little is known about the racial composition and ethnic background data of elder abuse victims.

• The inclusion of information on reporters of abuse such as municipal agents, postal service workers, utility workers, and hospital discharge planners suggests that training on the identification of abuse should expand to groups heretofore not known as critical to prevention and intervention efforts.

• It is critical that states collect outcome data on the clients served. This information will be extremely helpful in determining efficacy of APS intervention.

• Increased numbers of reports, investigations, and substantiations lead to the need for increased local, state, and national intervention and education efforts targeted toward the abuse of adults 60+.

• Little information is available about perpetrators and what happens to them as a result of APS intervention. States should collect as much information as possible not only about the victims, but also about the perpetrators. Data collected will inform multiple actors in the elder abuse arena regarding prevention, intervention, and advocacy.

• A national study of APS data, specifically related to the abuse of adults 60+, should be conducted no less than every four years. The increment of every four years is recommended because studies conducted in the past twelve years have been conducted within this time frame. This regularity is desirable for methodological comparability.


LTC: Eight million Americans now own long-term care insurance . The study reported that the average age of buyers dropped below 60 for the first time. "The average age of Americans purchasing individual long-term care insurance protection is now 58,. "That's a significant change from as recently as 2000 when the average age was 67." Increased public understanding of the importance of planning prior to retirement and lower costs available at younger ages are factors impacting the trend.

Women accounted for slightly over two-thirds (66.3%) of individuals currently receiving benefits under a long-term care insurance policy. "Insurers pay over $3.3 billion in yearly long-term care insurance benefits and 68.7% of these payments benefit women,"


QUANTITATIVE INVESTING- This uses computer programs to decide what to buy and when. From the WSJ- Trouble started at one manager's firm when stocks started moving not only in ways that commonly used models didn't predict, but in precisely the opposite directions from what was expected. Equally troubling, the moves were far more volatile than the models based on decades of testing assumed were likely. Those minor anomalies escalated quickly- exploding into a global rout for quant funds (Aug 11th)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. announced it was injecting $2 billion of its own money, and $1 billion from outside investors, into its Global Equity Opportunities Fund after that fund lost more than 30% of its value last week amid global-market turmoil. The Goldman vehicle, known as a "quant" fund, relies heavily on computer-driven programs to buy and sell.

A recurring characteristic of the recent trouble in financial markets is that many lenders, funds and brokerages were following statistical models that grossly underestimated how risky the market environment had become.

One manager noted as a defense-"our risk models failed to pick up the fact that  we were due a corrections. We were highly diversified. It was the perfect negative storm.”

O.K. what was the excuse for the credit mess just a few months later that has caused a meltdown of our economy? Perfect storm again??? Nope. Incompetency and a belief (?) in computer strategies devoid of real life application? Yes. And a bunch of arrogance.


LONGEVITY- U.S. is only 42nd in Life Expectancy

Americans are living longer than ever, but not as long as people in 41 other countries. For decades, the United States has been slipping in international rankings of life expectancy, as other countries improve health care, nutrition and lifestyles. A baby born in the United States in 2004 will live an average of 77.9 years, giving America a rank of 42nd worldwide. That is down from 11th two decades earlier. Countries that surpass the U.S. include Japan and most of Europe, as well as Jordan and the Cayman Islands. Andorra, a tiny country in the Pyrenees Mountains between France and Spain, had the longest life expectancy, at 83.5 years. It was followed by Japan, Macau, San Marino and Singapore. Swaziland, in sub-Saharan Africa - part of a region that has been hit hard by an epidemic of HIV and AIDS, as well as famine and civil strife - has the shortest lifespan, at 34.1 years. Researchers said several factors have contributed to the United States' falling behind other industrialized nations. A major one is that 45 million Americans lack health insurance. Among the other factors: Adults in the United States have one of the highest obesity rates in the world. Racial disparities are also a factor: black Americans have an average life expectancy of 73.3 years, five years shorter than white Americans. Another reason for the U.S. drop in the ranking is that the Census Bureau now tracks life expectancy for a lot more countries - 222 in 2004 - than it did in the 1980s. "Many Americans would definitely be living longer if everyone had health insurance,"


AUTISM: One in every 150 U.S. children has autism.



SOCIAL SECURITY BACKLOG MEANS WAITS FOR DISABILITY The number of people seeking help from the Social Security Administration (SSA) because they are too disabled to work has created a record backlog of appeals that is rapidly continuing to grow. More than 745,000 applicants are waiting an average 17 months for their disability case to be heard, both record numbers. This backlog has doubled in only the last six years, and estimates it could reach 1 million cases by 2010. An increasing overall population and the aging of baby boomers have contributed to the buildup, as older workers are more likely to become injured or sick on the job. At the same time, the agency is at its lowest staff level in over 30 years, having lost more than 2,300 workers since 2005. To receive disability, a state agency of the SSA must first review the claim in a process taking an average of three to four months. Approximately 65 percent of the 2.5 million people filing disability claims each year are denied at first, until appeals are heard by federal administrative law judges. 62 percent of appeals are ultimately approved, but average waits for hearings range from an additional nine months (Harrisburg, PA.) to 31 months (Atlanta, GA). Currently, 15.3 million people are collecting disability benefits, an increase of 24% over the past five years.


MUMBLE, MUMBLE, MUMBLE: 30% of those over 65 have no teeth. For those over 60, if you go back to your childhood, very few elderly had teeth.


HOMEOWNER INSURANCE- (Chubb)  60% of U.S. homes are underinsured by more than 20%. Even when clients own properties north of $25 million, where they place their business is often a matter of someone they heard about on the golf course, which is obviously not optimal. These clients need to be educated about their needs. (Won’t happen- golf buddies will prevail).


REAL ESTATE EXCHANGES: (WSJ) The use of like-kind exchange has surged over the past decade as real-estate investors searched for legitimate ways to postpone, or avoid, taxes on big gains. Taxpayers filed more than 338,500 forms reporting like-kind exchanges in 2004, deferring more than $73.6 billion. That represented a doubling of the number of like-kind exchanges reported in 1998. The total dollar amount deferred "more than tripled" in that time period. These totals include not only individuals but also partnerships and corporations. Individuals accounted for 65% of the forms filed and 39% of the dollar amount.


NEW ASIA FUNDS

          Country Weights and Number of Components

                 S&P Southeast Asia 40 Index             FTSE/ASEAN 40 Index

Thailand 3            0.1% (10 stocks)                                 10.5% (8 stocks)

Philippines             9.4% (4)                                              1.0% (1)

Indonesia             25.8% (7)                                             13.6% (7)

Malaysia               34.8% (17)                                            28.5% (12)

Singapore -                *                                                       46.4% (12)

*The S&P index currently has only 38 components.


JUST ANOTHER DAY AT THE OFFICE- The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) announced it has assumed responsibility for the pensions of more than 500 former employees of Specialty Filaments Inc. A PBGC news release said the nation's private-sector pension insurer stepped in because nearly $4 million in required contributions to the company's two underfunded pension plans were due and unpaid, and the pension plans would be abandoned after Specialty Filaments completed bankruptcy liquidation


RETIREMENT (WSJ) Studies have found that older investors don't cut back their stock exposure, that only a minority of households bother calculating how much they need to save for a comfortable retirement, and that many seniors quit the work force before their target retirement date, perhaps as much as three years earlier. Even more alarming, just 66% of workers report that they or their spouse have any retirement savings at all,

Fidelity Investments' Fidelity Research Institute calculates that the typical household is on track to retire with only 58% of its preretirement income. This figure includes Social Security and pension income.

Well, now add in a dropping stock market for maybe the next year or two and these people will be in a world of hurt.


WEALTH- 0.030% of U.S. households can be considered the high-wealth market - defined by Cerulli as those households with investable assets of more than $25 million or a net worth greater than $50 million. This small population controls approximately 6.85% of the country's total investable assets, nearly $1.64 trillion. While only 3,401 advisors actively target this space, analysts believe approximately 85% of this market has an advisor or advisors.


REUNION: About 13% of Medicare patients are back in the hospital within 30 days after initial release.




RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES OR ASSISTED-LIVING HOUSING: By the year 2020, an estimated 12 million older Americans will need long-term care.


WWII- About 14% of the military were infantry. 1 out of 4 were shell shocked. The army said that an infantry man could only take 240 days of combat before going mad. But the bulk were already dead or wounded before then.


PHYSICAL DISABILITIES: Nationwide in 2005, an estimated 19.6% of adults had a disability. Among states and territories, the prevalence of disability ranged from 11.5% in USVI to 27.1% in West Virginia (Table). Nationwide, a smaller proportion of adults with a disability engaged in recommended levels of physical activity than respondents without a disability (37.7% versus 49.4%; p<0.01). A smaller proportion of adults with a disability met recommended levels for physical activity than adults without a disability in all states and territories except USVI, where the difference was not significant. Among states and territories, the prevalence of persons with a disability who met recommended physical activity levels ranged from 23.2% in Kentucky to 53.3% in Alaska.

Nationwide, 25.6% of persons with a disability reported being physically inactive during a usual week compared with 12.8% of those without a disability (p<0.01). Adults with a disability were more likely than those without a disability to be physically inactive in all states and territories except USVI, where the difference was not significant. Among persons with a disability, the prevalence of physical inactivity ranged from 15.3% in Utah to 50.2% in PR.



ERROLD F. MOODY JR.

BSCE, LLB, MBA, MSFP, PhD

Life and Disability Insurance Analyst

13461 Aurora Dr. #E

San Leandro, CA 94577

Phone & Fax 510 352-4127

EFM@EFMoody.com








ALZHEIMERS: About five million people in the United States are living with Alzheimer’s, . Without a cure or new treatments, the number of those with the disease could grow to 13.2 million by 2050.

The four Alzheimer’s treatments now on the market work by regulating the action of chemical neurotransmitters in the brain. The drugs — Aricept by Eisai and Pfizer, Exelon by Novartis, Razadyne by Johnson & Johnson and Namenda by Forest Laboratories — have shown mixed results treating Alzheimer’s symptoms and do nothing to stop the disease’s progress.

Estimates of its frequency vary, but it strikes one out of every 5 people between ages 75 and 84 and 42 percent of those over age 85. The organization estimates the current direct and indirect costs of the disease at nearly $150 billion a year


HOW TIMES HAVE CHANGED- Alvin Toffler suggests dividing the last 50 ,000 years of man ' s existence into lifetimes of approximately 62 years each. There have been about 800 such lifetimes . The first 650 were spent in caves . Only during the most recent 70 did writing even exist. Only during the last 6 lifetimes did masses of mankind see a printed word. Only during the last 4 lifetimes has it been possible to measure time with any precision . Only in the last 2 lifetimes has anyone anywhere used an electric motor. Only during the present lifetime has the vast majority of all goods used in daily life been developed. Truly , the current generation differs vastly from its predecessors in terms of opportunities and technologies of which it can avail itself. Too bad they gave up the willingness to read and think.