
COMMENTARY ON ECONOMIC AND PLANNING ISSUES
ERROLD F. MOODY JR.
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN FINANCIAL PLANNING
LIFE AND DISABILITY INSURANCE ANALYST 0626414
REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISER
WIND AND FLOOD: Many consumers are not aware that there is a 30-day waiting period before a flood insurance policy will take effect. To make matters worse, many companies require high deductibles for windstorm claims, forcing an unsuspecting consumer to pay thousands of dollars over the standard homeowner deductible.
LTC: (LTCC) A healthy 51 year old females would need 624 days of assisted living or nursing home care. In addition she would need 2,107 hours of informal care and 454 hours or formal care prior to entering a nursing home. This is a ratio of 4.6 hours of informal care for every hour of formal care.
HOSPICE: (Yale) Families that delay enrolling the terminally ill in hospice programs may suffer from increased depression following the death of those patients.
One interpretation could be that "people who get to hospice late may not be getting adequate counseling preparing them for the death of their loved ones."
Medicare data from 1990 indicate a median Hospice enrollment time of 36 days, with more than 15% of patients dying within seven days of enrollment. That compares with enrollment times of longer than two months previously.
The delayed admissions could be linked to a growing number of hospice-like services offered by many hospitals today and the availability of palliative drugs on the market. These drugs can be used to ease the pain of terminally ill patients and allow them to linger longer at home prior to death.
PBGC: A year ago, it had $39 billion in assets and $62.3 billion in liabilities, leaving a shortfall of $23 billion. The Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that the deficit will widen to $86.7 billion by 2015 and $141.9 billion by 2025.
This is yet another deficit that has to be picked up by the government. And it will become a LOT worse if more companies (like Airlines) go bankrupt and are allowed to drop their pensions.
RETIREMENT FUND SOURCES: (SSA) Americans age 65+ get their money from the following sources:
Social Security: 39%
Work earnings: 24%
Employer Plans: 18%
Personal Savings: 16%
Other: 3%
THE FEELINGS MUTUAL: (Spectrum Group) Although the wealthiest Americans are able to use alternative investments, they have been increasingly turning to mutual funds. The research revealed that mutual fund usage has doubled from 6% of investable assets in 2003 to 12% in 2005. The "Ultra High Net Worth 2005" study showed that managed account investments have declined slightly, from 26% in 2003 to 23% this year. Alternative investments, including hedge funds, private placements, private equity and venture capital, have effectively held steady, going from 9% in 2003 to 8% in 2005.
Lately however, there has been a surge in interest in hedge funds- primarily due to high marketing and poorly informed journalists. Most hedge funds for middle America follow this comment from David Swensen, manager of Yale’s Endowment Fund
Funds of hedge funds generally aren't a good investment for the unsophisticated investor. "The best hedge funds aren't included in them, and the fees are too high. The fee structure, particularly when one adds the fees for the fund of funds, goes from unfair to ridiculously unfair."
Many of the best hedge funds are not available through any fund of funds. The most successful hedge funds often prefer to court only institutional investors who have longer time horizons.”
WEALTH: (Employee Benefit Research Institute) Mean (average) total wealth of Americans reaching or just past normal retirement age grew by almost 85% during the 10-year period from 1992 to 2002 - from $235,514 in 1992 to $435,072 in 2002.
53% of Americans in this age group saw their wealth increase by more than 50%,
21.1% experienced 25%+ decline, and
15% suffered more than 50% decline,
2.9% lost all of their total wealth.
In the study, "total wealth" was defined as all of a household's assets (including home) minus all of its debts.
TAXES: (the IRS's Statistics of Income Bulletin) About 2.4 million individual income-tax returns reported adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more for. That was down from nearly 2.6 million the prior year and nearly 2.8 million for 2000. The number of members was up from each year prior to 1999.
The IRS also said it received a total of about 130.1 million individual income-tax returns for 2002. Thus, about 1.9% of those returns reported income of $200,000 or more, down from about 2% the prior year.
MEDICARE AND HOM'S: The new, sharply higher charges announced for Medicare beneficiaries last week may prompt more elderly people to join Medicare health maintenance organizations operated by private industry, according to health insurance executives and industry analysts.
The 17.4 percent increase, to $78.20 a month in the Medicare premiums that mainly pay for coverage by doctors, was the largest one-step increase since the start of the program in 1965. Patients with chronic conditions that require a lot of hospital care will face an increase in their out-of-pocket expenses - to charges of $228 a day after they spend 30 days in a hospital and $456 a day after 90 days. That compares with $219 and $438, previously. Those higher charges may prompt some consumers to look anew at Medicare-subsidized private insurance programs. Enrollment under the private industry plans was down to 4.6 million elderly patients last year, from a peak of 6.3 million in 1999, because some private insurers stopped offering the programs after a cutback in federal subsidies.
GETTING OLD: (WSJ) Nearly a third of the elderly say they have set up a will, and nearly a quarter say they have set up a health-care proxy, which appoints a trusted individual to make health-care decisions if someone loses the ability to make them. But 30% say they have done nothing to prepare for these events.
SELL TO BUY: The bulk of analyst coverage is positive. Jefferies & Co. currently rates 10 stocks a "buy" for each one it rates a "sell." For A.G. Edwards the ratio is 15 to one. There's nothing necessarily dodgy about those numbers. Retail clients are interested in hearing about attractive stocks, not ones to avoid. Of course, that is just another element of sales marketing.
HOW STUPID CAN YOU BE?: A financial planner out of Miami calls me about how to do a Life Settlement. Gave him some insight. Asked how old the policy was. Brand New. What a schmuck. All companies require the completion of the two year incontestability period. And this guy is a "planner". I pity his clients.
NEVER INVEST LIKE THE PROS: (NY Times) The Yale director of investments wrote a book that ended up showing why the little guy will never be able to invest the way Yale does.
His new book has given David Swensen a greater appreciation of the enormous advantages he has as an institutional money manager, starting with the obvious fact that he has a staff that spends full-time researching investment possibilities. Thus, he takes it as a given that individuals shouldn't pick stocks themselves. "I see every day how competitive the markets are, and how tough. So the idea that you can do this yourself, that's out the window."
He thinks that it is criminal for fund companies to allow popular funds to balloon in size, making it nearly impossible for the manager to beat the market. He hates the way the industry pushes exactly the wrong fund at the wrong time - Internet-oriented funds at the height of the bubble, for instance. He notes, as others have before, that the vast majority of actively managed funds underperform. He uses "invidious," "investor-damaging" and "dirty scheme" to describe the general behavior of the industry.
Mr. Swensen absolutely skewers Morningstar, the company that has built its reputation rating mutual funds. His data shows that, like Moody's belatedly downgrading a corporate bond, Morningstar downgrades this or that poorly performing mutual fund only after the damage has been done. His core point, though, is that the for-profit fund industry has a fundamental conflict between its desire for corporate profits and its fiduciary duty to its investors. And the profit motive wins out every time.
LTC: (WSJ) "In the future, Medicaid will no longer be a resource for middle- and upper-class people."
Part of the proposed Government cuts to Medicaid could come from tightening loopholes that let some older people qualify for aid by sheltering their assets. Patients generally are eligible for Medicaid to help pay for long-term care after using up all but $2,000 of their cash and investments. They also get to keep their house and car. So, instead of spending the next generation's inheritance on long-term care, some parents transfer assets -- including, in some cases, their house -- to their kids before entering a nursing home There are restrictions on the amount of time that must elapse between the asset transfer and Medicaid eligibility, but these are rather weak.
Under the proposals, however, state regulators would tighten these restrictions, counting as belonging to the patient any assets given away within five years of his applying for Medicaid. Such a change could save the government $1.5 billion over five years, according to the HHS commission report.
The proposed change could make it even tougher for older parents to leave their assets intact for their boomer children, while at the same time getting government help with long-term-care costs. Last year, the cost per patient for long-term care averaged $72,240, including nursing homes, assisted-living facilities and home care
Under the partnership program, a person buys a private long-term-care policy that has been approved by state officials. If the person later enters long-term care and exhausts the private policy's coverage, he can still apply for Medicaid to help cover any additional costs. The benefit from the partnership program is that it sets a higher floor for how much the patient can keep as personal assets and still be eligible for Medicaid. That floor is equal to the amount of coverage the patient purchased in their private policy. For example, a policy worth $50,000, when used up, would allow that patient to retain $50,000 in personal assets, plus his house and car, and still qualify for Medicaid coverage.
The partnership program won't solve the larger problem of how long-term care is financed, with many older people already too poor to buy coverage, or too sick to get it. But for someone who is middle-age or part of the middle class, a long-term-care policy with a government guarantee not to wind up penniless might be worth a look. In the states with these programs, the long-term-care insurance market grew 23% faster from 1993 (when the programs were started) to 2001 than in states without them. So far, of the 180,000 policies purchased since 1992, only 89 have been.
Unfortunately, the sticker shock can be just as bad with partnership-approved policies as with traditional long-term-care insurance, for which premiums average about $1,000 a year for three to six years of care for a 55-year-old married person. The price goes up as a person ages, and adding extras -- such as inflation protection -- can push the price higher still.
WORK, WORK, WORK: (Occupational and Environmental Medicine) Those who work overtime are 61% more likely to suffer occupational injuries than those who work regular hours. Working at least 12 hours a day is linked to a 38% increased risk of injury, and a minimum 60-hour week is associated with a 23% greater chance of being hurt at work.
JUST TOO FAT: (American Journal of Health Promotion) an obese employee costs an additional $460 to $2,500 annually in medical expenditures and work absences, compared with a non-obese employee. The report claims that all employees pay higher health-care premiums because of obese workers, and employers pay if they have to hire replacement workers or pick up a bigger share of insurance costs. Normal-weight men miss an average of three work days a year, compared with five days for men who are 60 or more pounds over a healthy weight. Normal-weight women miss about 3.4 days a year versus 5.2 days for women who are obese,
FATTER FAT: (American Heart Association) More than 10% of U.S. children ages 2 to 5 are overweight. That is up from 7% in 1994.
The prevalence of obesity among adults is well-known, with an increase of 75% since 1991. So is the problem with school-age children, reaffirmed by new statistics showing that nearly 4 million children ages 6 to 11 and 5.3 million young people ages 12 to 19 were overweight or obese in 2002.
Other highlights of the report:
• About 1 million youths ages 12 to 19 in the United States — or 4.2% of the age group — have metabolic syndrome, defined as three or more of the following five factors: high triglycerides; low "good" cholesterol; high blood sugar; high blood pressure; and a big waistline. These factors raise the risk of heart disease.
• In 2002, heart disease killed 927,448 Americans, keeping its place as the nation's No. 1 killer.
• The Framingham study found that being overweight or obese can take years off your life. For example, a 40-year-old woman who does not smoke could lose 3.3 years of life because she is overweight and 7.1 years for being obese.
HOSPITAL BILLING ERRORS – Here are the 8 most common hospital billing errors to watch for: 1. Duplicate billing 2. Number of days in hospital 3. Incorrect room charges 4. Operating-room time 5. Up coding (Giving generics and charging for more costly medications) 6. Keystroke errors 7. Canceled work 8. Services never rendered
NOT THERE: Employee absenteeism among shift workers cost employers $111 billion this year, up more than $25 billion over last year’s totals. Circadian Technologies Inc. has found that the rate of absenteeism for those who work nights or twelve-hour shifts rose 12.4% in 2004, up significantly from 2003’s 5.8% increase. A growing demand for goods and services caused employees to work longer hours, and that, in turn, resulted in higher absenteeism rates. Instead of hiring new workers, most firms are offering current employees additional hours.
JUST ONE REASON WHY YOU NEED A WHOLE MESS OF MONEY FOR RETIREMENT: (National Underwriter)
How much will a boomer who retires in 2013 at age 65 need to pay for health care Medicare Part B premiums, medicare supplemental insurance and out of pocket expenses. They assumed the retiree will earn a 4% after tax rate of return on investments and face a 7% annual increase in overall Medicare and out of pocket medical costs due to inflation and aging.
Age at death 80 $158,000
85 223,000
90 297,000
95 382,000
100 479,000
MEDICATIONS: Here are 10 questions to ask your doctor:
1. What is the name of the medicine, and what is it supposed to do?
2. Is this the brand or generic name? (Is a generic version available?)
3. When do I take the medicine and for how long?
4. Should I take this medicine on an empty stomach or with food?
5. What should I do if I forget a dose?
6. What foods, drinks, medicines, dietary supplements or activities should I avoid while taking this medicine?
7. Will this new prescription work safely with the other prescription and nonprescription medicines I am taking?
8. What are the possible side effects, and what do I do if they occur?
9. When should I expect the medicine to begin to work, and how will I know if it is working?
10. How should I store this medicine?
CANCER: Lung cancer kills more people than colon, breast and prostate cancer combined and carries a stigma unlike many other cancers. We all know by now that the vast majority of cases are related to smoking (over 87%), but I for one, didn’t know that of the rest of those who have contracted the disease, there were twice as many non-smoking women as non-smoking men.
VALUE STOCKS: (Russel Wild) Historically, they have (supposedly) provided a greater return along with a greater risk. I say supposedly since it depends who does the numbers and the definition of even what value means. Anyway, assuming there was a positive correlation, it may not exist for much longer.
Most analysts give three potential explanations for value's outperformance. First: The value premium is a reward for higher risk. Second: It's the result of irrational exuberance. Third: It's just a fluke of history, nothing more, nothing less. Let's examine these in turn.
French, finance professor at Dartmouth isn't sure how things will shake out. "It is possible that part of the value premium has been the result of mispricing, and perhaps part of that mispricing will be corrected in the future," he says.
The director of mutual fund research at Chicago-based Morningstar, agrees that some correction seems likely. "The markets have changed. The Internet is allowing for a greater flow of information. The financial industry is more sophisticated. The markets are becoming more efficient." Therefore, he suggests the value premium will probably be less sweet in the future.
Indeed, some argue the value premium is already a relic. Ludovic Phalippou, a finance professor, recently studied the value premium and came to the conclusion that it is "a small, concentrated, and dying phenomenon." He holds that the only true value premium that still exists is found in the world of very small, thinly traded stocks, which tend to be ignored by institutional investors.
BENEFITS OF OPEN-MINDEDNESS (Ben Dean, Ph.D.) Research suggests the following benefits of open-mindedness:
Open-minded, cognitively complex individuals are less swayed by singular events and are more resistant to suggestion and manipulation.
Open-minded individuals are better able to predict how others will behave and are less prone to projection.
Open-minded individuals tend to score better on tests of general cognitive ability like the SAT or an IQ test. (Of course we don’t know whether being open-minded makes one smarter or vice versa.)
Open-Mindedness as a “Corrective Virtue”
Social and cognitive psychologists have noted widespread errors in judgment/thinking to which we are all vulnerable. In order to be open-minded, we have to work against these basic tendencies, leading virtue ethicists to call open-mindedness a corrective virtue.
In addition to the myside bias described above, here are three other cognitive tendencies that work against open-minded thinking:
1) Selective Exposure
We maintain our beliefs by selectively exposing ourselves to information that we already know is likely to support those beliefs. Liberals tend to read liberal newspapers, and Conservatives tend to read conservative newspapers.
2) Primacy Effects
The evidence that comes first matters more than evidence presented later. Trial lawyers are very aware of this phenomenon. Once jurors form a belief, that belief becomes resistant to counterevidence.
3) Polarization
We tend to be less critical of evidence that supports our beliefs than evidence that runs counter to our beliefs. In an interesting experiment that demonstrates this phenomenon[1], researchers presented individuals with mixed evidence on the effectiveness of capital punishment on reducing crime. Even though the evidence on both sides of the issue was perfectly balanced, individuals became stronger in their initial position for or against capital punishment. They rated evidence that supported their initial belief as more convincing, and they found flaws more easily in the evidence that countered their initial beliefs.
What Encourages Open-Mindedness?
Research suggests that people are more likely to be open-minded when they are not under time pressure. (Our gut reactions aren’t always the most accurate.)
Individuals are more likely to be open-minded when they believe they are making an important decision. (This is when we start making lists of pros and cons, seeking the perspectives of others, etc.)
Some research suggests that the way in which an idea is presented can affect how open-minded someone is when considering it. For example, a typical method of assessing open-mindedness in the laboratory is to ask a participant to list arguments on both sides of a complicated issue (e.g., the death penalty, abortion, animal testing). What typically happens is that individuals are able to list far more arguments on their favored side. However, if the researcher then encourages the participant to come up with more arguments on the opposing side, most people are able to do so without too much difficulty. It seems that individuals have these counter-arguments stored in memory but they don’t draw on them when first asked.
AND SOME MORE CRAP: A physician called me to discuss a sale of a life annuity to his infirmed mother. She was fat, on lots of medications, etc., etc. An agent sold her a $50,000 Hartford annuity and she died 3 months later. The son called the agent, the insurance company the Florida department of insurance etc. Initially he felt that they would be receptive to negating the policy since it was so clear that the sale of a life annuity to someone who had effectively no chance of living out a standard actuarial lifetime was unsuitable. Now, you must understand that, like securities- though to a lesser degree- the sale of a life product must be suitable. Unfortunately, there are no guidelines (same as with securities). So he got the runaround. And the runaround. Now, to use the colloquial terminology, he is pissed. Hartford attorneys supposedly indicated that the policy should be rescinded and the money returned (less the three payments). But the company said no. The Florida department of Insurance would provide no assistance whatsoever but did, in private commentary- indicate that should it go to trial, he should win.
But he couldn't find any attorneys that will give him the time of day. Further, they hardly have a clue to the issues of actuarial lifetime, suitability of life products, obesity and so on. Finally he finds me. I tell him the steps to take- similar to my success in another mess in Arizona against the ING company that sold a $20,000 annual premium policy to a 77 year old who did not have enough money to pay for any policy whatsoever.
She ended up getting $26,000 back.
OBESITY AND DISABILITY: A UnumProvident (NYSE: UNM) report released earlier this year cited a tenfold increase over the past decade in short term disability claims in which obesity was identified as the primary diagnosis. The figures released this week look at data from the same time period (1996-2003), pulling from the company’s database of 1.3 million disability claims. The company reports striking increases in claims for conditions in which obesity is either a risk factor or is strongly associated. The disability claim experience of these chronic health conditions includes:
• 4000% increase in syndromes that are primarily symptom-based such as fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue syndrome, irritable bowel syndrome or Gulf War syndrome
• 100% increase in hypertension and diabetes
• 78% increase in musculoskeletal disorders
• 63% increase in cancer
• 46% increase in back disorders
• 17% increase in cardiovascular disease
The National Business Group on Health (NBGH) warns that increasing obesity and related health issues hurt the well being of the workforce and threaten their employers’ bottom line. “Today’s employers must absorb increasing health care costs. “Per the National Institutes of Health, the direct healthcare costs attributable to overweight and obesity are now estimated to be $123 billion, or 9% of total U.S. healthcare costs. The cost of treating type 2 diabetes attributable to overweight and obesity is estimated to be $98 billion. The cost of treating heart disease attributable to overweight and obesity is estimated to be $8.8 billion, or 17% of the total healthcare costs for heart disease.” Nationwide, obesity will cost employers $13 billion per year. In addition, NBGH says obesity is annually associated with 39 million lost work days, 239 million restricted-activity days and 63 million physician visits.
FIRE- (Liberty Mutual ) Each year, fire kills an average of 4,200 Americans and injures another 25,000. Some of the following is obvious but it bears repeating
1. Have working smoke alarms on every level of your home. Test them monthly, and change the batteries once a year. It will cut your chance of dying in a fire by 50%.
2. Never leave cooking food on a stovetop unattended. Cooking fires are the number-one cause of home fires and home fire injuries.
3. Never leave burning candles unattended or near combustible materials. Home fires caused by candles have nearly doubled in the past decade.
4. Replace or repair loose or frayed cords on all electrical devices. Unsafe electrical wiring is the cause of more than 40,000 home fires each year.
5. Keep portable heaters at least three feet away from all combustible materials. Heating equipment is the leading cause of home fires in December, January and February.
6. Keep matches, lighters and candles out of the reach of children. Children ages five and under are twice as likely as others to die in a fire.
7. Develop and practice a home escape plan.
8. Only use a fire extinguisher after all others are out of the house, and only if you have received training on how to safely and properly use one.
9. Alert everyone to leave your home immediately...call 911 or your fire department from outside, either from a cell phone or a neighbor's house.
10. Never re-enter a burning house to retrieve pets or personal belongings.
CLUELESS (Paul Farell) Here are some comments about why people make investment mistakes (and otherwise). My comments follow
1. Distrust all data Here's a fast-moving scenario: The Wall Street Journal quotes a Morgan analyst. Bill Gross is on CNBC. Bloomberg tests Bernanke's inflation strategy. Your stock-picking software signals a "buy!" Your brain sees a pattern, a trend. Big mistake! Why? Kahneman doesn't say don't trust the data, he means don't trust what your brain is doing with data! Brains love seeing things that aren't there, inventing epic dramas. Makes them feel in control (brains hate being clueless).
Me- Depends on the data and how it is distributed. If you look at the yield curve, it has not emotion to it at all. Same with productivity, GDP, employment numbers and so on. There is NO emotion to investing- that's how I do it. Unfortunately, consumers are swayed by marketing and their teeny little brains. And trusting golf buddies. Yuck!
2. Cool it big shot!- Chasing fads and hot investments makes Wall Street drama queens feel important. But even stupid ideas like dotcoms win in bull markets. Psychologists say overconfidence is our biggest saboteur. You win some, think you're a genius, take bigger risks, wind up a loser. It's just a market cycle. You really don't have a clue what's next.
Me- fine. But you HAVE to evaluate economic cycles. If you do not read the Fed, you are not an investor.
3. Distrust all gurus!- All gurus, all the time. In print, cable, online. They're hustlers selling you something. Period. See every talking head, naked on stage, wearing a big "used-car salesman" name tag. Their so-called "advice" is a sales pitch. Now, notice how your brain still wants to believe in them.
Me- Fine again. But Greenspan is not a guru. There are others. Try the Hulbert letter for independent analysis.
4. Stop the obsessive counting Behavioral psychologists note that investors who check their accounts often are more anxious and, ironically, bigger losers. Kahneman's pretty blunt: Looking at your stocks and funds every day is not only dumb, it's "the worst possible thing you can do!"
Me- absolutely true, but most people do exactly that. Long term trends are the issue. Become obsessive about being a reader. And then think.
5. It's the portfolio, stupid -Kahneman calls it "global framing," focusing on the whole rather than worrying about gains and losses in individual assets. Create a well-balanced portfolio diversified enough so that losses in one sector are spread against the returns of the rest of the portfolio.
Me- Generally works. Generally. But look at 2000- 2002. Sure some bonds would have offset some of the 45% losses- but not enough for most retirees. Diversification also means escaping the wrath of extreme down turns. It can be done. It should be done.
6. Autopilot investing -Sorry folks but your brain is a very, very bad computer; irrational, clueless, extremely vulnerable to mistakes. Junk it! Get an upgrade, like Kahneman's "permanent autopilot portfolio." Then set your savings up so new money is automatically transferred from your bank into your portfolio. Get your error-prone brain out of the loop.
Me- don't always agree. Autopilot means different allocations in different economies. Too much stuff changes. Autopilot in 1999 is entirely different than 2005. Not even close
7. Limits on casino betting- Think about CNBC's frenetic "Mad Money" program. Now, if you're an investor with a hyperactive teenager's brain, next time you have a sane moment, lock up 90% of your portfolio. Can't touch it. Limit your self-sabotaging gambler's brain to the other 10%. When that's gone, walk off stage and enjoy a very long Pinter pause.
Me- it's long term investing always. Do take money out for excess debts.
8. Trust yourself -Well, do you? When the curtain falls, when applause dies down, when the lights dim in your little theater, when you are stuck alone with box-office receipts, win or lose, will you walk out into the night your head high, no matter what, proud of your performance?
Me- very few people can trust themselves. Reading and thinking are not part of consumer effort. Actually, reading and thinking are not part of most advisers and analysts.
Harsh? Then how is it that American Express put out bogus software used at least in Tennessee and perhaps the country. How is it that they only provided the positive statistics of investing which violates Rule 2210? And it goes on.
HEALTH CARE GRADES: (Harris) Most insured adults with employer-provided plans (42%) rated their health-care plan a “B,” while a quarter (25%) gave their plan high marks with an “A” grade. By comparison, only 19% rated their plan a “C,” 10% gave it a “D,” and 2% said their plan was a complete failure, with an “F”.
OIL SHOCK: (NY Times) oil shocks, like the one that may be developing, have an awfully perfect - and perfectly awful - track record. They are always followed by recession.
A throng of strategists on Wall Street argue that rising crude prices do not hurt as much as they have in the past because the economy is not as energy dependent as it once was. The amount of energy needed to generate $1 in gross domestic product has fallen by roughly 50 percent in the past three decades.
Further, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said of oil prices and its impact- "I think (the recovery is) self-sustaining, and it's not terribly fragile ... It is in a little soft spot right now and I wish it would strengthen. But I don't think it's in jeopardy,"
Possibly true- but try telling that to a family of four that will pay dearly for heat this winter. They don't read the stuff above and will close down their wallets to other purchasers. I have already stated that Christmas spending will be down. That was due, in part, to Katrina, Wilma and Rita. But they seem to be already forgotten by many so consumers may put their heads in the sand. I still think 2006 will be slow. At some point you really need to address about $100 billion in repairs just for Katrina. And our national highways need a complete overall. Where will the money come from??????
HOME INSURANCE: (NY Times) In a move to cut costs from claims, insurance companies began in the late 1990's to phase out coverage that guaranteed the replacement of a destroyed home, regardless of the expense to the insurer. In place of that unlimited coverage, which had become nearly universal, insurers substituted a similar-sounding policy with a crucial difference: it pays only the amount stated on the policy plus, typically, an additional 20 percent to 25 percent.
For their part, insurers insist that it is the consumer's responsibility to acquire adequate coverage.
Marshall & Swift/Boeckh, a Los Angeles company that most insurers rely on for help in calculating the value of houses, estimates that 64 percent of American homes are underinsured by an average of 27 percent, with some homes underinsured by 60 percent or more.
Another insurance industry company, AIR Worldwide in Boston, estimates that many upper-income homes in New England are underinsured by 30 percent to 40 percent.
The issue of underinsurance has not attracted much attention because, of the millions of insurance claims every year, fewer than 2 percent are for the total loss of a house.
Agents often lacked the training to assess accurately the value of a home, usually done these days with the help of a computer program.
It is my opinion that since real estate consumes so much of a portfolio and has so much risk due to its lack of liquidity and mobility, planners will soon have to be Property and Casualty state licensed as well as for life and health. I admit that the statistics for a loss are low- but the loss of a house has the emotional collapse associated with the financial loss. Far more insight is needed. Instruction would require insight on how to read a contract. Very few planners have any idea what is really involved.
FRAUD (Federal Trade Commission) nearly 25 million adults ― 11.2 percent of the adult population ― were victims of fraud during the year studied.
Certain racial and ethnic minorities were much more likely to be victims of fraud then non-Hispanic whites. American Indians and Alaska Natives were the ethnic group most likely to be victims: nearly 34 percent had experienced one or more frauds in the preceding year. Seventeen percent of African Americans were victims; over 14 percent of Hispanics were victims; and over 6 percent of Non-Hispanic whites were victims.
The most frequently reported type of consumer fraud was advance-fee loan scams, in which consumers pay a fee for a “guaranteed” loan or credit card.
Four and a half million consumers ― 2.1 percent of the U.S. adult population ― paid advance fees but did not receive the promised loan or card. In fact, some consumers reported that more than once during the last year they paid fees to get loans or credit cards they did not get.
SENIORS' CLASS ACTION ON ANNUITIES - An 80-plus year-old couple has filed a class action lawsuit on behalf of themselves and other senior citizens in California who claim to have been sold annuity policies that "offer no hope of benefit payouts for at least ten years" and that may include early withdrawal penalties. The lawsuit alleges that American Investors Life Insurance Company engages in unfair business practices by improperly targeting the marketing and sale of its annuities to senior citizens.
NURSING HOME (MetLife) The average daily cost of a private room in a nursing home in the United States increased almost 6% from last year. the average nursing home cost is $203 per day, up 5.7% from last year’s $192.
That works out to $74,095 annually, compared to just over $70,000 in 2004.
The average daily rate for a semi-private room nationally was $176 ($64,240 annually), up 4.1% from $169 in 2004.
The study found that the cost per hour of a home health care aide increased $1, or 5.5%, to $19 per hour nationally, while homemaker-companion care averaged $17 per hour (homemaker-companion data was not included in prior MetLife studies).
The lowest costs for both home health care aides and homemakers-companions were $17 and $12 per hour in Shreveport, La. The highest cost for a home health care aide was Vermont at $31, while homemakers-companions cost the most in Rochester, Minn., at $23 per hour.
The average stay in a nursing home is 2.4 years, MetLife notes, citing data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta. That would bring the total average cost to $177,828 for a nursing home stay.
(A study published last year by University of California researchers found among more than 1.3 million nursing home residents, half needed help with five activities of daily living and 24% with four ADLs. About 95% required help with bathing, 87% with dressing and 51% with eating. Over 44% were diagnosed with dementia.)
I JUST FINISHED A SUCCESSFUL NEGOTIATION IN CHATTANOOGA. This was part of the issue:
Date initiated: 03/22/2005
Allegations:- Respondent member effected
Transactions where it made recommendations to public customers
To purchase class B and class C shares through its registered representatives without considering or adequately disclose on a consistent basis, that an equal investment in class a shares would generally have been more advantegous to certain customers. The firm's supervisory and compliance policies and procedures during the review period, were not reasonably established, maintained and/or enforced so that the firm, at the point of each sale, provided adequate disclosure of, or consideration to, on a consistent basis, the benefits of the various mutual fund share classes as they applied to individual customers.
Ordered: Monetary/Fine, Censure
Monetary Amount: $13,000,000.00
Other Sanctions: undertaking: create and implement a remediation plan that Includes more than 182,000 transactions involving at least 30,000 customer households. Retain an independent examiner to examine the firm's performance of its obligations under the nasd brokercheck October 27, 2005 Page 8
This information is current as of: 10/27/2005
NASD Member Firm: AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. (American Express).
$13,000,000 is not a slap on the wrist. Use Ameriprise at your own risk.
NORMAL AGING OR DEMENTIA? (Sherri Issa)
In the early stages of dementia, distinguishing dementia from normal aging can challenge families and friends. Initially dementia can be fairly innocuous as most people compensate for minor mental slip-ups with notes, reminders, and "rational-lies".
Since social skills are generally the last to go, short visits with someone who has early dementia may not reveal anything wrong. She may look as she always did, chat about old times, and socialize as usual. Caregivers, who don't want to believe that something might be wrong, often dismiss inappropriate appearance, changes in behavior, and memory lapses without realizing it.
the following include common signs and symptoms of beginning dementia:
Short-term memory loss - important details of recent events are forgotten frequently and permanently.
Self neglect - personal hygiene is neglected, such as mouth care, brushing hair, or wearing the same or soiled clothing.
Erratic emotional responses - the person becomes more anxious, restless, or tearful.
Speech difficulty - one word is confused for another; finding the right word is more difficult.
Impaired abstract thinking- counting and balancing the checkbook becomes increasingly challenging, the person may pay bills twice or forget to pay some bills; a lifetime golfer may have more difficulty choosing the appropriate club.
Poor judgment- the person makes unsafe or unusual decisions, he may not remember to make sure traffic is clear before driving or walking across the street.
NO NONSENSE FINANCE
McGRAW HILL
From a reader: “Thank you for writing the informative and refreshingly honest No-Nonsense Finance.
Unfortunately, I found myself described amongst the pages as the uneducated investor who takes advice from a friend, hires a planner and a broker and loses 60% of her money. Ouch. Luckily, yours is the first publication that actually explains what went wrong and how to take more grounded steps going forward. Your book (and website) have helped me begin to understand many important principles for prudent investing. Thank you again for your dedication to making Finance and Investing accessible for the rest of us.”
BUY NOW FOR CHRISTMAS AT AMAZON.COM
I WANT ONE OF THESE: Women now account for 15.7% of top ranking executives in America's largest companies (compared with 12.5% in 2000 and 8.7% in 1995). In addition, the Center for Women's Business Research estimates that nearly half of privately-held businesses are owned 50% or more by women. Finally, women are now controlling more and more of the household finances - in fact up to 90% of women will take complete charge of their personal finances at some point in their lives.
SHOP AROUND: Weiss Ratings released its analysis of Medigap premium rates, proving once again that it pays to shop around. A few highlights: the national average premium for a Medigap policy covering a 65-year-old female ranged from $1,159 to $3,443, with even more startling pricing disparities on specific plans (e.g., premiums for the popular Plan C varied from $651 to more than $9,000).
ERROLD F. MOODY JR.
BSCE, LLB, MBA, MSFP, PhD
Life and Disability Insurance Analyst
2232 W. Ave 133
San Leandro, CA 94577
Phone & Fax 510 352-4127
Marina Office 510 357-1554
Cell 510 459-7797
TUITION: A USA TODAY 50-state survey of 67 public flagship universities shows that although some schools, including Texas, North Dakota, Illinois, California and Kansas, will see double-digit increases, others are increasing tuition and fees by relatively small percentages.
The average is 9%, which translates to $491. Last year, the average percentage increase was 14%. The most expensive in-state tuition this year of the 67 schools was Penn State at $10,856, a jump of 12% since last year but 30% since 2002-03. Rutgers was next: Tuition increased 8% this year — 40% since 2002-03. The University of Vermont, at $10,226, had a 6% increase this year, 14% since 2002-03. In a few states, tuitions have increased 50% or more since 2002-03.