State John Kerry - In America, "you have a right to be (as)
stupid (as) you want to be."
(But too many Americans are abusing the privilege)
"our economics are based on an
unjustified faith in rational expectations, market efficiencies
and the techniques of modern finance"
You must not believe everything you think
language intentionally designed to influence rather than inform is now ubiquitous in the business of sports and politics and markets
Why? Because it works.
Hatred is too strong an emotion to waste on someone you don't even like
Be careful who you call your friends. I'd rather have four quarters than one hundred pennies.
– Al Capone
Investing is not easy. Anyone thinking that it is, is stupid
There is no sense in being precise when you do not know what you are talking about.
John von Neumann
“ . . . there is always a well-known solution to every human problem — neat, plausible, and wrong.”
Henry Louis “H. L.” Mencken
“As skill improves, performance becomes more consistent, and therefore luck becomes more important.”
Former Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher
reason the professors teach nonsense is that if they didn’t, what would
they teach the rest of the semester?
Teaching people formulas that don’t really work in real life is a disaster for the world.”
“The expected rarely occurs and never in the expected manner.”
– Vernon A. Walters
Nations rise and fall with the quality of their leaders, and their leaders succeed and fail based upon who they are at their core – what they believe, how they think, and what they do. Nothing shapes a leader or a society like their education or lack thereof. Let me be clear: when I refer to an education, I’m not referencing earning a degree, I’m talking about developing a rich intellect – they are not always one and the same.
"If you see fraud and don't shout fraud, you are a fraud"
“We really can’t forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can’t.”
Fail with honor rather
than succeed by fraud
. I do not base my forecasts on mathematical models or some finely honed methodology, but on my sense of where the economic world stands today and where I think it might likely be in the near future.
Actually, I’m going to spend the first few pages demonstrating that the mathematical models used to forecast GDP and all sorts of interesting economic events are basically nonsense.
“The essence of investment management entails the management of risk, not the management of returns.
“If you are not confused about the economy, you don’t understand it very well.”
The least competent are the most certain of their skills
"In equity markets, high-frequency traders (HFTs) ... account for a larger share of transactions. "Indeed, trading in the U.S. nowadays is concentrated at the beginning and the last hour of the trading day, when HFTs are most active; for the rest of the day, markets are illiquid, with few transactions."
The key to success is the ability to fake sincerity.
“I think the reason why we got into such idiocy in investment management is best illustrated by a story that I tell about the guy who sold fishing tackle. I asked him, “My God, they’re purple and green. Do fish really take these lures?” And he said, “Mister, I don’t sell to fish.”
It’s difficult to put in the hard work of reading a great work of literature, when we spend our time writing in 140 characters.
“You cannot manage returns but you can manage risk”
Peter L. Bernstein
There is an important
methodological point here — distrust conclusions reached primarily on the
basis of model results. Models are estimated or parameterized on the basis
of historical data. They can be expected to go wrong whenever the world
changes in important ways.
you think is much less important than how you think.”
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.”
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler
“We observe the world how it is today and make these very simple projections and turn them into a terrible scenario. “This approach fails to take into account that the world is changing.”
World Bank’s Social Protection and Labor Global Practice.
The most glaring problem with current risk tolerance questionnaires is its failure to add any perspective and context to what the risk score means.
Markets are supposed to be be based on informed consumers making rational choices. Instead, the point of marketing is to create uninformed consumers who will make irrational choices often against their best interests
not cease to exist because they are ignored.
A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is getting its boots on.
A wise man can
learn more from a foolish question that a fool can learn from a
In the absence of regulation, someone will always be willing to exploit our irrational tendencies, leading to a “phishing equilibrium” in which individuals are harmed.
Phishing for Phools; George Akerlof and Robert Shiller
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
George E.P. Box
A Single Death is a Tragedy; a Million Deaths is a Statistic
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds
Classical mathematical algorithms often fail to identify in time when the international financial crises occur although, as the classical theory of choice would suggest, the economic agents are rational and the markets are or should be efficient and behave also rationally. This contribution does not pretend to give a complete answer to these questions, but it will highlight some well-known limits of the classical theory of rational choice. In particular, the present paper will focus on the concept of bounded rationality. The work also makes some references to behavioral economics and to the literature of behavioral finance which has given important contributions in explaining the behavior and the anomalies of financial markets. Finally, following the approach of Simon, the paper proposes ananalytical model to describe the behaviour of agents which are rationally bounded, risk averse and loss averse, emphasizing ther elationship between psychology and economics which helps to explain the crisis in financial markets.
There were 28 maternal deaths — defined as deaths due to complications from pregnancy or childbirth — per 100,000 births in the United States in 2013, up from 23 in 2005, the institute found. The rate in 2013, the most recent year for which the institute had detailed data for the United States, was more than triple Canada’s. The institute is projecting that the American rate dipped in the last two years to 25 by 2015.
Increases were extremely rare among rich countries. In all, 24 countries had one from 2000 to 2015, including South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, though their rates were much higher. America’s increase put it above a number of poorer countries whose rates had declined with the global trend, including Iran, Vietnam, Russia and Romania.
Give Me a Lift
By Valeri Thelen, Staff Writer
The toilet seat should not be overlooked as a way to help a loved one stay independent as long as possible. It also can be a location of great concern for those prone to falling or for caregivers who must help transfer their loved ones in order for them to use the toilet.
It may not be the household item that catches a person’s eye or thoughts while looking for hazards, but toilet seats have options available today that many caregivers are unaware of. From extra padding to extra height, these specialized seats make it easier for elderly loved ones to get on and off the toilet. The industry, however, is bringing innovation one step forward with power-lift toilet seats.
On the market
There are two main types of power-lift seats on the market. The first is a spring-powered option. It is already in an upright position when a loved one approaches it, not like the usual toilet seat. It hinges on the front and meets a person’s rear while they are standing. When a loved begins to sit back, the spring and hydraulic piston slowly lowers them to a seated position.
With this option, the device takes about 80 percent of the weight off the person using it. When a loved one is finished, he or she stands up independently, with the weight again being minimized by the hydraulics in the system.
The second option is completely motorized, assuming 100 percent of a person’s weight. This is a great option for someone who needs full assistance. It installs on the toilet and includes a hand controller for raising and lowering the seat. The controls help the seat meet a loved one in their standing position; then, with a small lean back, lowers them directly onto the toilet. When the person is finished, the controller again is available to lift a loved one to a complete standing position. For larger people, a dual-motor option can be bought for additional support.
A power-lift toilet seat is available in either a free-standing or wall-mounted product. The free-standing seats are able to be used bedside, which some people may prefer for flexibility. The good news, if you are considering a purchase, is that if a physical deems this kind of support medically necessary, many insurance companies will help cover the cost. A caregiver can do some easy research to find out their loved ones’ benefits.
Time in a bathroom is typically a very personal thing. Many loved ones may feel embarrassment needing assistance, especially if they still are very mentally aware and simply experiencing the standard bending/reaching issues that often come with age. With more progressive needs, an aide still must assist the person in getting on and off a toilet.
From another point of view, a power-lift toilet seat is an ideal option for someone in recovery from a surgery or illness. It helps people return home and stay home longer. From knee issues to back concerns, a long list can be made of times when a power-lift seat is beneficial. Toileting is one thing that no person can ignore, and a little help can go a long way for someone who just needs a boost.
Safety is of utmost importance to all those involved in caregiving. All power-lift toilet seats come with weight recommendations, but most are between 250 to 500 pounds. There are also bariatric versions available. The power-lift toilet seats help caregivers and loved ones alike, by promoting independence and dignity, while preventing injuries.
Falls are a big safety risk for people with uneven gait, or wobbly knees. Elderly people are especially at risk, as any caregiver will attest. A power-lift toilet seat tremendously minimizes that danger.
While these products were designed originally for hospitals and other care facilities, they are now available for the consumer. Caregivers are thankful for fewer falls and trips to the emergency room, and loved ones are grateful for regaining a sense of self-worth and respect.
By Malika Brown, MSW, LSW
Caregivers often carry around undeserved guilt, believing that they aren’t doing enough for their loved ones. This guilt can make the caregiving role even more stressful than it already is. One might ask why a caregiver feels guilty when they’re doing such a courageous job. Here are some reasons:
Ways to Cope with Caregiver Guilt
Reach out for support from family and friends; seek caregiver support groups or professional help to work through your feelings of guilt. Know that you are not alone in your caregiving journey and the help is available. Most of all, remember that you are doing the best that you can!
1. Has a history of DRUG use.
2. Recently been charged with a DUI.
3.Needs coverage effective immediately - within 24 hours.
4. Client does not want to secure Life coverage (can be done confidentially, without the Insured Person’s knowledge)
-Must have a valid contract in place, and certain criteria met, for this type of coverage
5. Afraid of needles and does not want to have Medical Exam
6. Assignment in a foreign country and they are not able to secure a policy.
7. Travel to War Zones causing the Traditional carrier to decline the application.
8. Has health issues and is willing to accept coverage with an exclusion (i.e. cancer).
9. Limits as high as $100,000,000 with no medical exams just a 1 page application.
By Geri Hall, PhD, ARNP, GCNS-BC, FAAN
Always make sure the doctor does an evaluation to rule out infections, tumors, etc. for both urinary or bowel incontinence.
If the patient is still early in the disease, there are two frontotemporal dementia-specific issues:
Many people with this condition have bowel and bladder
accidents when over stimulated, such as at a shopping
center. I would use this as an indicator of how much
stimulus the individual can manage and try to avoid crowds,
loud places, etc.
Make sure he/she is taken to the toilet (or insist they go) 20 minutes after the first meal. There is a normal reflex that makes us want to have a BM then, so you can try for an evacuation.
Avoid all caffeine as it irritates the bladder.
Do not leave him or her outside to wait for you as anxiety will build.
Increase general fluid intake during the day to enhance the
urge to urinate.
People with this condition have abulia (failure to initiate) and do not recognize they need to find a toilet when the urge presents. I had one client who would wake each morning and then have a BM in bed. It upset his wife as she thought he was doing it to be rude to her. He was continent the rest of the day. All she had to do was wake him at 6 am and tell him to go to the bathroom and he evacuated normally. So, prompting and directing should become a way of life after noting what the patient’s usual schedule is.
In later dementia, the person may have incontinence that may not respond to prompting. This is usually managed by continuing to try to prompt, but using the incontinence products even doubled when necessary. Pad the bed with lawn and leaf bags under the sheets and make a draw sheet to minimize the amount of late night changing.
Provide adequate fiber using two large oatmeal raisin cookies each afternoon with a glass of liquid.
Incontinence briefs need to be changed two or three times per day even if not soiled because of the risk of urinary infections.
To help the individual adapt to the briefs, take the
underpants out of the dresser drawer and replace with
pull-up briefs. After a while, they will “get it.”
The threat to EM growth Demand for emerging market exports has hit a new post-crisis low, with US imports from China dropping sharply in July in the latest sign that the engine of growth for the world’s developing economies is sputtering. (FT)
Innovations in realized volatility are associated with recessions, while shocks to volatility expectations are not.
The market value of a pension reflects the full cost today of providing a steady, guaranteed income for life — and it’s large. Alarmingly large, in fact. This is one reason most states and cities don’t let the market numbers see the light of day.
But in recent years, even the more modest actuarial numbers have been growing, as populations age and many public workers retire. In California, some struggling local governments now doubt they can really afford their pension plans,The problem reaches far beyond pensions, and into the $3.7 trillion municipal bond market. The reason is that municipal bond ratings take into account the strength (or weakness) of government pension plans. If those numbers have been consistently wrong, as dissidents argued, then actuaries were helping mislead the investors buying municipal bonds.
Arguably, the flawed standards worsened the problem with each passing year: Actuarial values determine the annual contributions that states and local governments make to their pension plans, so if the target numbers are too low, the contributions will always be too small. Shortfalls will be compounding, invisibly.
Much of the debate surrounded the routine practice of translating future pension payments into today’s dollars, which is called discountingEFM the discount number can vary a LOT and that has always made me think about what might be objective.
Little is known about how individuals make decisions when they must choose several options from a set of options when the outcomes are risky and the payoffs are rival. When researchers model these decisions, they assume people maximize their expected utility. We design an experiment in which subjects face either rival or independent payoffs. While theory predicts different behavior, subjects behave nearly identically under these payoff schemes. This suggests individuals are not maximizing expected utility. Additional treatments demonstrate that this behavior is likely driven by a heuristic used to simplify a complex math problem, rather than a preference for lotteries with the highest independent expected utilities. Our results suggest that using expected utility as peoples' objective function in these types of environments will lead to biased predictions.
BlackRock Inc. urged regulators to increase scrutiny of robo-advisers as customers flock to automated services, lured by low fees and ease of use.
Regulators should ensure digital advisers understand their customers before offering such services and provide clear disclosure on the algorithms used to recommend securities, the New York-based company said in a report released today. They should also analyze fee disclosures and how the firms protect client data and prevent cyber breaches, BlackRock said.
“If you as an individual signed up for digital advice and tried three different products, you will get three different answers,” BlackRock Vice Chairman Barbara Novick said in an interview Friday. “There are no standards or rules of the road on these things, so you either need disclosure that establishes what are the rules or advice on best practices, but these should be up for discussion.”EFM- I have already done my part.Click on
Britain’s armed forces cannot defend the UK against a serious military attack and have lost much of their ability to fight conventional wars, the recently retired head of the country’s Joint Forces Command has warned.
General Sir Richard Barrons has said a series of “profoundly difficult” strategic challenges are being sidestepped as Whitehall focuses on “skinning” budgets and delivering costly but increasingly redundant big-ticket military projects.His 10-page, private memorandum is the most forthright criticism of defence policy from the UK’s senior military leadership to have emerged publicly in years and will raise grave concerns in Nato.
Reifschneider assumes inh is base case that the Fed funds rate reaches 3 percent before the next recession and treats as an extreme case the possibility that rates will reach only 2 percent before the next recession. As Jared Bernstein points out, market expectations are much more pessimistic than this.
According to the OIS market (basically long term fed fund futures), fed funds are expected even in the long run to rise only to 1.5 percent. This may be a bit misleading because the expected fed funds rate in 2020 of 1 percent includes some probability that it is zero because of a recession. Even so markets, which have been much more right than the Fed so far, are clearly signaling the likelihood that rates will be under 2 percent when the next recession comes.
They vowed to strengthen cooperation on security, reduce illegal migration and improve prosperity for the alliance's disaffected citizens..
The alliance is facing unprecedented division over how to absorb more than 1 million migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia who have traveled to Europe to escape war and poverty back home. Germany has welcomed most of them but other EU members, such as Hungary, don't want to accept any.
There are also widening fissures over how to boost economic growth and trade, concerns that populist political parties are eroding trust in mainstream ones, and squabbles over whether forming an EU army is the best way to secure the region's borders from the threat of terrorism9/18: Help for Low-Income Seniors
The HUD grant program is welcome news for aging Americans and their caregivers. As seniors age, more specialized care needs to come to the forefront, and paying for private assisted living is prohibitively expensive for many families. Furthermore, navigating the Medicaid process to pay for assisted living can be difficult and onerous, notes an article on AssistedLiving.com.
Now, however, 11 facilities in 9 states have be established in order to help seniors stay in place — with much-needed assisted living services such as personal care, safety systems, transportation, elevators, meals and housekeeping. Help with daily living activities like these is key for many seniors who wish to remain independent.
One of the awardees is Delta Volunteers of America Elderly Housing Inc. in Colorado, which has converted 22 of its apartments into assisted living units. Not only will the conversion help more seniors stay out of costly nursing care, according to U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., these units will also “help reduce health care costs by providing access to health care services in the home rather than in a hospital,”
The Plan Sponsor Council of America (PSCA) has launched a mobile application called the PSCA Knowledge Center. The app will serve as a one-stop shop where plan sponsors can access information and resources related to qualified and non-qualified retirement plans via several channels including articles, podcasts, and the council’s own surveys
DAY MANOLI, University
of Texas at Austin
ANDREA WEBER, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)
|EFM- I remember when they first came out. Going to be the best thing since sliced bread/ But I already knew that any new investment has to be tested for a year or two.|
Bank of England The central bank is likely to leave rates at a record low of 0.25 per cent, but the focus will be on its assessment of the economy in the wake of the Brexit vote — new data showed the UK labour market has so far been unruffled by the referendum result. (FT)And we may do the same.
A national 2008 survey found that about 40 percent of adults ages 65 and older drink alcohol. Older adults can experience a variety of problems from drinking alcohol, especially those who:
• Take certain medications
• Have health problems
• Drink heavily
There are special considerations facing older adults who drink, including:
Increased Sensitivity to Alcohol
Aging can lower the body’s tolerance for alcohol. Older adults generally experience the effects of alcohol more quickly than when they were younger. This puts older adults at higher risks for falls, car crashes, and other unintentional injuries that may result from drinking.
Increased Health Problems
Certain health problems are common in older adults. Heavy drinking can make these problems worse, including:
• High blood pressure
• Congestive heart failure
• Liver problems
• Memory problems
• Mood disorders
Bad Interactions with Medications
Many prescription and over-the-counter medications, as well as herbal remedies can be dangerous or even deadly when mixed with alcohol. Medications that can interact badly with alcohol include:
• Cold and allergy medicine
• Cough syrup
• Sleeping pills
• Pain medication
• Anxiety or depression medicine
Drinking Guidelines for Older Adults
Adults over age 65 who are healthy and do not take medications should not have more than:
• 3 drinks on a given day
• 7 drinks in a week
Drinking more than these amounts puts people at risk of serious alcohol problems.
If you have a health problem or take certain medications, you may need to drink less or not at all.
More than half of older adults who visit emergency departments are either malnourished or at risk for malnutrition, but not because of lack of access to health care, critical illness or dementia. Despite clear signs of malnutrition or risk of malnutrition, more than three-quarters had never previously been diagnosed with malnutrition, according to the results of a study published online in Annals of Emergency Medicine (“Malnutrition Among Cognitively Intact, Non-Critically Ill Older Adults in the Emergency Department”).
“We were surprised by the levels of malnutrition or risk of it among cognitively intact seniors visiting the ER, and even more surprised that most malnourished patients had never been told they were malnourished,” said lead study author Timothy Platts-Mills, MD, of the University of North Carolina Department of Emergency Medicine in Chapel Hill, N.C. “Depression and dental problems appear to be important contributors, as is difficulty buying groceries. Given that seniors visit ERs more than 20 million times a year in the U.S., emergency physicians have an opportunity to screen and intervene in ways that may be very helpful without being very costly.”
Of patients age 65 and older, 16 percent were malnourished and 60 percent were either malnourished or at risk for malnutrition. Of the malnourished patients, 77 percent denied have been previously diagnosed with malnutrition. Malnutrition was highest among patients with symptoms of depression (52 percent), those residing in assisted living (50 percent), those with difficulty eating (38 percent) and those reporting difficulty buying groceries (33 percent). Difficulty eating was mostly attributed to denture problems, dental pain or difficulty swallowing.
In this study, nearly all (95 percent) of patients had a primary care physician, nearly all (94 percent) lived in a private residence and nearly all (96 percent) had some type of health insurance. More than one-third (35 percent) had a college education.
Malnutrition is defined as lacking “adequate calories, protein or other nutrients needed for tissue maintenance and repair.”
“For patients who report difficulty buying groceries, Supplemental Nutrition Program, Meals on Wheels, Congregate Meals Programs or community-based food charities can be helpful, although other factors may also need to be addressed,” said Dr. Platts-Mills. “The growing role of the emergency department as community health resource makes it an essential place for identifying and addressing unmet needs of older adults. Implementation of oral nutritional supplementation is inexpensive and may reduce overall costs by accelerating recovery from illness and reducing readmissions.”
that govern the creation of an estate plan are in flux. Courts once
demanded strict adherence to the Wills Act, which requires testators
to express their wishes in a signed and witnessed writing. Yet this
legacy of hyper-vigilance is waning. The Uniform Probate Code, the
Restatement (Third) of Property, and ten states have adopted the
harmless error rule, which excuses botched attempts to make a will
under certain circumstances. Meanwhile, trusts have eclipsed wills
as the dominant method of posthumous wealth transmission.
Supposedly, this movement has further diminished formalism’s domain.
Because trusts are immune from the Wills Act, they do not
necessarily have to be written or signed, and they never need to be
attested. This Article explores three budding topics that threaten
to further complicate this area. First, there are anecdotal accounts
of decedents trying to make electronic wills. In both strict
compliance and harmless error jurisdictions, e-wills raise thorny
issues about the meaning of “signed” and “writing” in the Wills Act,
and when, if ever, courts should be able to overlook violations of
the statute. Second, despite the received wisdom that trusts are
less formal than wills, a rising number of settlors are failing to
observe the arcane principles that govern the transfer of property
into a trust. Third, most state legislatures have adopted or are
currently considering statutes that give fiduciaries access to the
contents of a decedent’s email, text messaging, and social media
accounts. However, the precise steps necessary to convey these
cutting-edge forms of property after death remain unclear.
The Article tries to help courts and policymakers regulate these matters by offering a fresh perspective on the purpose of mechanical, bright-line principles in the realm of estate planning. As conventionally framed, this debate revolves around what the Article calls the “intent paradigm”: the idea that execution doctrines should be gauged primarily by whether they facilitate or frustrate the wishes of individual decedents. Conversely, the Article explores a different virtue of formalism: its ability to prevent decedents from imposing spillover costs. The Article demonstrates how some unyielding principles limit the burden on courts, survivors, trustees, the trustee’s creditors, purchasers of trust property, and other third parties. It then explains how recognizing this anti-externality function can pay dividends in wills law, trust law, and emerging niches such as the inheritability of digital assets.
DARIA ROITHMAYR, USC
Gould School of Law
JUSTIN CHIN, University of Southern California
BRUCE LEVIN, Emory University
Legal actors and the regulators who pursue them often engage in a co-evolutionary game of cat and mouse, as each innovates to out-compete the other. Predatory payday lenders are a prime example of this co-evolutionary arms race. Lenders have discovered increasingly creative ways to escape state regulation, like partnering with Indian tribes to claim immunity from state jurisdiction. In turn, regulators continually adapt their regulation to retarget the latest innovation. A regulator trying to keep pace with legal actors faces a tradeoff: adapting more frequently reduces the prohibited behavior, but increases wasteful innovation for both regulator and lenders, as each innovates in response to the other. In this paper, we draw from dynamic mathematical models of drug resistance to map this process and to advise regulators on how to optimize their regulatory approach. We construct a simple mathematical model using coupled differential equations to describe the arms race of innovation between regulatory strategy and the strategy of the regulated, in the context of payday lending. We conduct numerical approximations, to analyze the evolutionary pathways of regulator and lender strategy over time, and to map the tradeoff between the benefit from reducing predatory lending and the harm from having to return again and again to the drawing board to generate new regulation. We show that, contrary to intuition, a regulator should delay responding to an innovative payday lender strategy: we calculate an optimal response time that balances the need to respond slowly in order to minimize triggering repeated innovation, and the need to respond quickly to minimize the number of predatory payday lenders. We also show that a regulator that is unable to adapt quickly should weaken the strength of its innovation, in order to minimize further innovation by predatory lenders.
ROBERT P. BARTLETT, University
of California, Berkeley - School of Law, University of California,
Berkeley - Berkeley Center for Law, Business and the Economy
JUSTIN MCCRARY, University of California, Berkeley, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
SIMON HALPHEN BOSERUP,
WOJCIECH KOPCZUK, Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences - Department of Economics, Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA), National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
CLAUS THUSTRUP KREINER, University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics, CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)