reference to the limited fiduciary capabilities in the planning
industry (and more) and why they may/will remain as such given
sophomoric DOL rules and flaccid organizational enforcement.
Specific commentary to sexism and ethical and moral lapses
of society impacting women. Not the standard drivel
for investors and advisers. The economic changes from
the Great Recession caused major adjustments in investing.
One of the major issues is the flip flop
of the correlations in bond funds versus equities
coupled with a truly lower return and an increased overall
risk. It will take a lot more effort to provide adequate return
for those in need and the discussion will address pros and cons
particularly for retirement purpose Emphasis on risk, Click for
not the Fed’s job to stop people from losing money.”
Jay Powell- head of the Federal Reserve
Update on yield curve
Flattening yield curve raises alarms.WSJ's Daniel Kruger and
"The gap between short- and long-term Treasury yields is at
in more than a decade, reflecting investors’ confidence that
Reserve will maintain its current pace of interest-rate
continuing skepticism about the longer-term outlook for
economic growth and
inflation. The difference between the two-year Treasury yield
and the 10-year
Treasury yield, known on Wall Street as the 2-10 spread,
settled Tuesday at
0.428 percentage point, its tightest since 2007, before
Wednesday. Two-year yields tend to rise along with investors’
tighter Fed interest-rate policy, while longer-term yields are
to sentiment about prospects for the economy."
Simplified Underwriting is One Way Life Insurers Can Reach
the 19 Million 'Stuck Shoppers' LIMRA
researchSimplified Underwriting - Life Insurance
shows there are about 19 million “stuck shoppers” -
potential life insurance
buyers who start the process but never finish. To help
combat this issue, many
companies are implementing simplified underwriting processes
to lower costs and
improve customers’ buying experience. LIMRA finds only 15 percent
of all U.S. households
shop for life insurance in a 24-month period. Of those,
actually get a quote for a life insurance policy. A
possible deterrent can be
the time consuming and complicated nature of the full
Fifty-two percent of potential life insurance buyers said
they would be more
likely to purchase life insurance if they didn’t have to go
through a physical
exam, according to the 2018 Insurance Barometer Study by
LIMRA and Life
The 'no physical; quotes may be higher than those who will go
through full medical review. Those who take the 'no physical'
may be a pool of those with less than perfect health
OPM doesn’t have a contingency plan if long-term care
insurance market upends Long-term care insurance premiums
rose as much as
126 percent the last time OPM re-competed its contract for
the program back in
2016. The premium hikes affected roughly 264,000
active and retired federal
employees, who are paying an average of $111 more per
month for the same
coverage they had in previous years. With the current pace of change
in the long-term
care insurance market, FLTCIP participants could see
even higher premiums in
the future, the IG said. Premiums rose the previous
time OPM re-competed its
long-term care contract in 2009, but the increases weren’t
4/19:. The probability that the Fed will raise
rates three more
times in 2018, derived from prices in futures markets, rose
above 80 per cent
on Wednesday, up from 66.3 per cent a week ago. (FT)
this has happened in human history. A combination of
government decree and modern medical technology in the world’s
countries has created a gender imbalance on a continental
scale. Men outnumber
women by 70 million in China and India. Now both nations
are belatedly trying
to come to grips with the policies that created this
respondents generally felt they lacked sufficient knowledge
about disruptive technologies. Read More
today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this
week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top
news events taking place in the global energy complex over the
past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Before we take a look at this week’s data, we would like to
inform you that we've just published a special reporton
breakthrough technology in solar. This report along with
several other reports will turn you into an expert in the
rapidly growing and dynamic solar power industry. Find out how
you can consistently make money from investing in renewable
energy. Click here to
find out more.
oil production is expected
to rise by another 125,000 bpd in May, compared to a month
- The gains will, unsurprisingly, come from
the Permian basin, which is expected to add 73,000 bpd.
- Interestingly, the number of drilled but
uncompleted wells (DUCs) continues to rise, an indication that
supply chain bottlenecks are causing some delays.
Giraffes have been a friend to fly fisherman for decades. They are
comfortable, easy going and their
long necks allow them to see fish that the angler couldn't.
Here you see the angler trying to put a Large floating Trump
fly with a 5x tippet in front of a hippo which has just risen
because he heard a twitter on the water..
occurs through savings, investment, and economic growth.
Unless all three factors exist in sufficient quantities, a
society’s ability to provide retirement benefits to older
the US, all three factors are moving in the wrong direction:
In the 1970s, Americans saved 9% to 15% of their income.
Today, we save only about 4%.
In an era of near-zero interest rates, it’s a lot tougher to
generate safe investment returns. When my father retired in
1981, he could buy a certificate of deposit (CD) that paid 14%
interest. Sure, inflation was higher in 1981 than it is now.
But his after-inflation return on investment was nearly 6%
higher than it is today.
CD interest rate: 14%
on investment: 3.7%
inflation rate: 2.38%
CD interest rate: 0.75%
on investment: -1.63%
In the 1970s and 1980s, there were six years in which the
economy grew at a rate of 9% or higher. Since then, the
growth rate has exceeded 5% in only a handful of years. In
2017, the economy expanded at only a 2.3% rate.
of these factors forces retirees – and anyone thinking of
retirement – to save a great deal more money to supplement
Social Security and pension income they receive or expect to
Best audience I ever had.
Rapt with attention
proportion of people paying into the Social Security system to
beneficiaries is now at a historic low. And in the next 25 to
50 years the ratio will go even lower. In 1960, the
worker-to-beneficiary ratio was 5.1:1. In 2005, it was 3.3:1.
In 2020, it will be about 2.6:1. It is projected to be 2:1 by
FindingsIn 2016, the US spent 17.8% of
its gross domestic product on health care, and spending in the
other countries ranged from 9.6% (Australia) to 12.4%
(Switzerland). The proportion of the population with health
insurance was 90% in the US, lower than the other countries
(range, 99%-100%), and the US had the highest proportion of
private health insurance (55.3%). For some determinants of
health such as smoking, the US ranked second lowest of the
countries (11.4% of the US population ≥15 years smokes daily;
mean of all 11 countries, 16.6%), but the US had the highest
percentage of adults who were overweight or obese at 70.1%
(range for other countries, 23.8%-63.4%; mean of all 11
countries, 55.6%). Life expectancy in the US was the
lowest of the 11 countries at 78.8 years (range for other
countries, 80.7-83.9 years; mean of all 11 countries, 81.7
years), and infant mortality was the highest (5.8 deaths per
1000 live births in the US; 3.6 per 1000 for all 11
countries). The US did not differ substantially from the
other countries in physician workforce (2.6 physicians per
1000; 43% primary care physicians), or nursing workforce (11.1
nurses per 1000). The US had comparable numbers of hospital
beds (2.8 per 1000) but higher utilization of magnetic
resonance imaging (118 per 1000) and computed tomography (245
per 1000) vs other countries. The US had similar rates of
utilization (US discharges per 100 000 were 192 for acute
myocardial infarction, 365 for pneumonia, 230 for chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease; procedures per 100 000 were 204
for hip replacement, 226 for knee replacement, and 79 for
coronary artery bypass graft surgery). Administrative costs of
care (activities relating to planning, regulating, and
managing health systems and services) accounted for 8% in the
US vs a range of 1% to 3% in the other countries. For
pharmaceutical costs, spending per capita was $1443 in the US
vs a range of $466 to $939 in other countries. Salaries of
physicians and nurses were higher in the US; for example,
generalist physicians salaries were $218 173 in the US
compared with a range of $86 607 to $154 126 in the other
United States spent approximately twice as much as other
high-income countries on medical care, yet utilization rates
in the United States were largely similar to those in other
nations. Prices of labor and goods, including pharmaceuticals,
and administrative costs appeared to be the major drivers of
the difference in overall cost between the United States and
other high-income countries. As patients, physicians, policy
makers, and legislators actively debate the future of the US
health system, data such as these are needed to inform policy
it came to many of the measures of health system function, the
United States was in the middle of the pack, not an outlier, as
Dr. Jha had expected. Many analysts have called for the country
to shift its physician training away from specialty care and
toward more primary care medicine, for example. But the study
found that 43 percent of U.S. doctors practice primary care
medicine, about typical for the group.
often argued that patients in the United States use too much
medical care. But the country was below average on measures of
how often patients went to the doctor or hospital. The nation
did rank near the top in its use of certain medical services,
including expensive imaging tests and specific surgical
procedures, like knee replacements and C-sections.
data are consistent with other evidence that health care systems
to converge, as information and technologies spread around
the world among doctors and administrators.
the other humanitarian crisis
A generation ago, it was the wealthiest country in Latin
America. Now, following the implosion of the economy,
thousands of desperate migrants are fleeing into Colombia and
Brazil daily. At the current rate, over 5 per cent of
Venezuela’s population will depart this year.
I gave up on South America a long time ago.. So much is in
conflict that it will take two decades to- at a minimum.
Overdose deaths from heroin, synthetics like fentanyl, and
prescription painkillers, reached 42,000 in 2016
put the number of Amazon Prime members at 65 million.
medical advanced directive but expressly intended for one’s
on the stage of the disease and the degree of disruption of
brain systems important for self-awareness, patients have widely
varied insight into their predicament and appreciation of the
impact of their neurological disease on their work.
lack of self-awareness was disturbingly evident in the case of a
professor in her mid-60s who continued to give lectures,
supervise students and even consult, despite being diagnosed
with Alzheimer’s disease of mild to moderate severity.
(EFM- someone must step in to 'correct' the situation due
to, among other things the liability exposure of causing harm to
others. That said, a lot of employees may not want to take
action because the person is a superior. Even if not,
there still is the element of getting fired because it was not
your job, not every one would agree (enablers) etc.
strong cognitive-testing evidence of her deteriorating mental
status and examples of her difficulty carrying out
professional responsibilities were brought to her attention,
she insisted that her problems were only minor. "
Studies also show that the person may have absolutely no clue
to their situation and refuse to receive any feedback on their
condition. I had thought that most people- certainly in
'higher functioning' positions - would know something was
going wrong from the beginning of dementia- was simply wrong.
blueprint exists to guide me in this process, so I have broken
down this seemingly overwhelming task into manageable steps:
Crafting a written document articulating advanced directives for
work that represent a personal commitment to how, depending on
my cognitive status, I would want to comport myself in the
Sharing the document with others I trust, who can support me
through this process.
Recording a video that communicates my wishes and can be used to
speak to my future self.
Identifying a few peers or colleagues I can confide in, who can
access my work and make a fair and reasonable assessment of my
Explicitly empowering these individuals to share their
observations with me.
Finally, if concerns are raised, having a plan in place for
evaluating — via formal assessment by a cognitive neurologist or
geriatric psychiatrist — whether my decline exceeds the bounds
of normal aging and is truly worrisome."
central bank is concerned riskier assets such as stocks and
high-yield corporate debt could be set for widespread losses
if there is a sudden increase in government bond yields.
bank warns current asset valuations, which are reliant on
global bond yields staying low, are "elevated relative to
addition, it says returns for holding many risk assets have
fallen to record low levels.
RBA cautions that a sharp increase in long-term government
bond yields toward historically normal levels "could result in
widespread asset price falls if it is not accompanied by
for fixed income securities could fall sharply if interest
rates rise substantially because of higher realised or
expected inflation, while valuations for assets more broadly
could fall if risk premia return to historically more normal
chart from the RBA shows how riskier assets performed during the
"taper tantrum" of 2013 when US bond yields spiked as the
Federal Reserve announced that it would begin reducing monthly
asset purchases as part of its quantitative easing program.
my issue with this and all other risk identification for the
last 60 years is this .......article
led people to the conclusion that risk, not the best price,
should be the crux of any portfolio. Furthermore, once an
established, building a portfolio was an exercise in
plugging investments into the formula.
for an investor dealing with retirement or some other specific
goal ends up being some type of superficial and sophomoric 1)
drivel of simply asking the investor. And broker dealer firms
questionnaires back up what the investor state by asking how
much experience have you had in the market. Rubbish. Being in a
401k for 20 years does not make sophistication. What about the
agent/broker> On what basis will the expertise come from. Not
from licensing training where you do not have to know how to use
a financial calculator. Not from software- many now extolling
their value because they include behavioral elements. Nope.
Better maybe(?) but still subjective. So as repeated here (maybe
too often I admit) is to break down the various investments to
how much they can lose. Admittedly the analysis can only
estimate for the worst case situation (recession) for mutual
funds and ETFs (with track records) so that the range of numbers
can be delivered to the client with the statement. "this is how
much you will probably lose in a recession. Is that acceptable/"
As to what range that loss is in (conservative, moderate, etc.
here is a link to a Linkedin
article explaining the first phase of the Preliminary Patent
Process noted above.
the past decade, medical professionals have increasingly been
diagnosing and treating seniors with relocation stress
syndrome (RSS), also known as “transfer trauma.” The syndrome
is characterized by a combination of symptoms – including
anxiety, confusion and loneliness – that often present
themselves after a move to a senior living.
A series of downbeat business surveys in the eurozone,
plus an unexpected third successive monthly fall in industrial
production in February, have cast some doubt on the robustness
of the European recovery. Employment in the US has been
weaker than expected, as has Japanese consumer spending and
wage growth, meaning Japan is likely to remain below its 2
per cent inflation target for some time to come. Activity in
the Chinese economy, meanwhile, also appears to be soft.
Overall, the global economy is performing below expectations:
Citigroup’s economic surprise indicator, which measures actual
data relative to predictions, has turned sharply down. More
policy-induced risk, especially from such an erratic source as
US President Donald Trump, is precisely what the world does not
bad news should remind policymakers that the world economy
remains in uncharted territory. Wage and price
inflation have manifestly failed to respond as normal to years
of sustained growth. Expectations that economies are
at or close to sustainable capacity and that prices are just
about to take off have repeatedly been confounded. Even in
the US, wage growth remains weak. Perhaps the most dangerous
idea in modern policymaking is that of normalisation: the
belief that the world economy went through a time-limited
period of extraordinary weakness following the global
financial crisis, but that it will necessarily return to the
status quo. The reality is that the growth in sustainable
output may have slowed indefinitely since before the crisis
across many of the advanced economies. And even so, given that
the monetary policy pedal is still pressed close to the floor in
some economies, particularly Japan, it is far from clear that
policymakers can sustainably maintain domestic demand expansion
sufficiently to fill the output gap.
EFM- I have had and continue to have a rather a bleak
attitude toward the world economy. With a potential trade war,
Syria, North Korea and a raving mad President, it may be
possible to get through 2018 but a lot of bad stuff will through
the world out of spin in 2019. Should be pretty bad with Trump.
One way to understand China is to look at the statistics. Real
income per person has increased nearly tenfold since 1990. Since
the early 1980s, the number of extremely poor people in China
has fallen by more than three-quarters of a billion people, more
than half the population of the country. China consumed more
cement in a recent three-year period than the US used in the
entire 20th century.
Some will be tempted to dismiss the statistics as irrelevant
book-learning, and declare that only personal experience
matters. There is certainly something in that, especially when a
situation is fast-moving or contains soft, hard-to-quantify
details. As the Nobel laureate economist Friedrich Hayek
remarked, the “knowledge of the particular circumstances of time
and place” is important and often neglected.
HR McMaster — who before he was US president Donald Trump’s
former national security adviser, was a counterinsurgency
pioneer in Iraq — had a similar concern. He once told me the
army used to wrongly believe that “situational understanding
could be delivered on a computer screen”. It would be
convenient if that was possible, but as Gen McMaster and his
colleagues learnt the hard way, it is not. Sometimes you have
to be there to understand
A new book by the late Hans Rosling and his family, Factfulness,
advocates the merits of understanding the world both through
the data and through personal experience — not of news
stories or tourist traps, but of the everyday lives being lived
all over the world. “Numbers will never tell the full story of
what life on Earth is all about,” wrote Rosling, despite being
the world’s most famous statistical guru. But the story they do
tell matters. In statistics, as elsewhere, hard logic and
personal impressions work best when they reinforce and correct
need to increase financial literacy “seems like an obvious
solution,, but “like many obvious solutions, upon closer
inspection it’s clear that financial education alone
hasn’t worked — and perhaps it never can.” She suggests
that this is because “the way our brains are wired to process
information typically works against us when it comes to making
sound financial decisions, and changing behavior takes more
than a single class.”
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) shares that view,
Menard points out, citing a 2016 NPR broadcast in which the
CFPB said that, “There’s no clear link between taking
personal finance classes and saving more, paying off debts
or raising your credit score.”My issue when hearing of
financial literacy covers investing, mutual funds et al. What
is really disconcerting the fact that the issue of savings et
al is done at the grade school- certainly high school- level.
I can do the instruction for people who have had some basic'
knowledge of the world.' But an instructor for the schools
noted that the students did NOT learn- or at least retain-
what they were taught and it would not work unless and until
there were real life examples to validate the learning. He
then said that the school coursework was a failure. As
to that level of knowledge, it is next to impossible for my
effort to succeed.
of the problems with financial education,” says Menard, “is
that it can become obsolete in a relatively short span of
time,” adding that “new financial products are engineered and
introduced more quickly than organizations offering financial
education can keep up with them.” She argues that “old
rules of thumb” are not sufficient now. Other problems, she
cognitive bias to lend more importance to present needs and
wants than those in the distant future;
tendency to hold on to the first bit of information one
acquires as a baseline for comparison;
bias toward new information that confirms preconceived
notions, and to ignore evidence that contradicts them; and
I submit that loss aversion is a key element but my recent
work pretty much changes that concern. However, it may never
be recognized by the industry since it changes the status quo
of investing. In essence even though one builds a much better
mouse trap, no one may know about it if the powers to be want
it squashed. I do not have the power- read lots and lots of
money- to force the system to adhere to a fiduciary duty. I
know what I have done and it will keep major losses to about
12% in a recession. No liquid alternatives, hedging, futures,
derivatives, yada, yada, yada. Simple. Another issue is the
new financial products ARE growing like weeds. Certainly with
all the indexed offerings which seem to come out each week. .
But different than Menard's comments above, the industry never
has been that astute anyway, They cannot grasp (as a whole)
new products because they do not have the requisite skills to
begin with. Pundits and advisors have railed at this for a
long time but the simple fact is that no broker, registered
investment advisor or insurance agents has been required to
know how to use a financial calculator. You CANNOT do
financial 'whatever' without some skills in what the
numbers represent. Purchased software does not include
formulas or lessons to work in the real world. I mean, a life
insurance agent able to grasp the nuances of a new indexed
annuity without running pertinent numbers on a calculator??
are further comments: The
CFPB also offers some ideas, Menard says. She cites a 2017
CFPB report in which it sets forth five principles of
financial education that can lead to greater success:
information to individuals’ specific circumstances,
challenges, goals and situations.
timely information that is relevant and that can be used to
address a specific situation or meet a specific goal.
general skills such as knowing where to obtain reliable
information and how to process it.
individuals’ confidence regarding meeting financial goals
and support their ability to focus on their standards and
values, and to persevere when challenged.
create habit and systems that make it easy for individuals
to implement their decisions.
suggests that employers and retirement plan professionals
that are pondering instituting a financial education program
may find the following considerations helpful:
does the financial education look like? Will it work for our
who is doing it?? What background? Has done education for how
long? Does it include insurance ,(life and disability), long
term care, life settlement ( as applicable)
the program offer access to human coaches or advisors?
Only for large companies. Can get expensive
problems will the program address? How does it help employees
to address their financial needs and set goals?
Everything starts with risk. Which is not taught for investing
in the real world
there mechanism that encourages employees to be accountable
about their financial decisions?
An ongoing budget which many hate to do. Monthly or quarterly
newsletter (though must be simple)
the program include a way for employees to estimate their
income during retirement?
it can be done without too much difficulty.But must consider
RISK of LOSS first and foremost. Most practitioners will screw
this up if employee may not have enough .
4/15: Frankly I do not believe that
consumers recognize just how far AI and automation will go. AI
et al will take over many/most functions of humans by 2050. We
may become 'unnecessary"
inverted yield curve remains a powerful signal of a looming
recession and that is still the case even if the current
ultra-low level of U.S. interest rates are taken into account,
according to fresh research by the Federal Reserve Bank of San
negative curve, where the return to investors on shorter-dated
securities is above that on longer-term bonds, has predicted all
nine U.S. recessions since 1955, with a lag of six to 24 months.
Some have argued that this time is different, because interest
rates are so low and a flattening yield curve doesn’t
necessarily mean the U.S. economic expansion is heading for
findings, published Monday in the San Francisco Fed’s regular
Economic Letter, show that the term spread, or the difference
between short- and long-term interest rates, is as good today as
it’s always been at spotting problems ahead. But there’s no
urgency just yet. While relatively flat, the current yield
curve doesn’t signal a high risk of a downturn even though the
U.S. economic expansion is already the third longest on
future economic developments is a tricky business, but the
term spread has a strikingly accurate record for forecasting
recessions,” study authors Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens,
who are both economists at the San Francisco Fed, wrote in
their analysis. “While the current environment appears
unique compared with recent economic history, statistical
evidence suggests that the signal in the term spread is not
these hypotheses have some intuitive appeal, our analysis
shows that they are not substantiated by a statistical
analysis that incorporates the suggested factors into the type
of predictive models we use,” they wrote. “An extensive
analysis of various models leads us to conclude that the term
spread is by far the most reliable predictor of recessions.”
concern is the extra supply of bonds and other upward
pressures on longer rates even as the Fed hikes, keeping
long-term yields from falling below short-term yields.
The ballooning budget deficit that will exceed $1 trillion
next year and debt held by the public will rise from the current
74.3 percent of gross domestic product in coming years to more
than 90 percent in 2026 — and that doesn’t include the impact of
the recent tax reform. Debt-to-GDP was barely 40 percent at the
end of the Reagan administration. The deficit has to be
financed, and I suspect that will mean ever-higher rates,
which will curb economic growth, to attract overseas buyers
because we don’t have enough savings on the domestic front to
do it on our own.
we end up with a bunch of bozos who vote for a 1.3 trillion
dollar budget and nary a one had read the 2,200 page summary. It
had only been put together the night before. Actually this
is a fine example of what Congress does- it attacks a number of
critical areas/errors (such as Facebook) that may deserve
additional scrutiny but where there own kitchen is dirty.
Facebook will hurt a number of people whose background was
stolen. Every person in America is going to get creamed by the
deficit blowing up on us due to incompetency by Congress. )
It’s not only about government debt. Corporate debt stands at a
record 45.3 percent of GDP, and companies will face massive
refinancing needs — at higher rates — as that debt matures over
the next few years. All I ;lhear is that the money saved from
lower corporate taxes and the overseas cash — mostly held in
Treasuries, by the way — that can now be brought back to the
U.S. will be used for more share buybacks and M&A activity,
not to reduce debt. Again, a source of upward pressure on rates.
add in tariffs, which can raise prices inefficiently, thus
giving an upward tilt to inflation that is not based on demand.
In the case of steel and aluminum, the U.S. produces far less
than it uses. The consulting firm Trade Partnership put out a
report saying the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs would
eliminate a net 179,000 jobs, overwhelming any gains enjoyed by
the U.S. steel and aluminum manufacturers. And, we don’t even
know the impact of any retaliatory tariffs by other countries or
if certain countries decide to respond by purchasing less U.S.
debt. Either way, this again points to upward pressure on yields
rates for reasons unrelated to actual growth or demand-based
more? Consider that real income gains remain tepid and
consumption that has been fueled by a lower savings rate, which
fell to a 10-year low of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
Presumably, borrowing at higher interest rates will prove at
least somewhat problematic to consumers. Oh, and the Fed said
last month that American households’ outstanding debt
climbed to a record $13.1 trillion in the October-December
period. (EFM Just look at the margin debt right now, Way out
change in the structure of U.S. deficits, the ownership of
debt, and influences from the likes of tariffs and stimulus
well into an economic recovery suggests the path to a yield
curve inversion will be harder than before. Looking at
recessions before the 1950s, only about half were preceded by
an inverted curve.
is all to say we may not need an inverted yield curve as the
final arbiter of a recession. I could see it as a late 2019
event, just before the 2020 elections.
climate change may cause so-called ’100-year’ floods to occur
more frequently, even more people may be exposed to flooding
in the future. All of this highlights the critical need for
comprehensive floodplain and flood risk management
Annuity rates- I know the FED wants to keep raising rates but I
am not sure the global markets will hold up.
• 3 year
surrender period guaranteeing 2.50% for all 3 years
• 5 year
surrender period guaranteeing 3.60% for all 5 years
• 7 year
surrender period guaranteeing 3.85% for all 7 years
if it weren’t enough to deal with forgetfulness and
confusion while caring for your loved-one with Alzheimer’s,
but aggressiveness, wandering and paranoia can really put
you over the edge. Managing your loved-one’s difficult
behavior is your true testament of love and devotion. You
know it isn’t their fault, it is their disease that is
making them scream, cry or yell terrible things out at you.
Who ever said patience is a virtue, didn’t care for a
loved-one with Alzheimer’s or dementia. Perhaps a
caregiver’s only defense is to understand how to react to
difficult behaviors and be ready for them.
behaviors can be broken down into the following categories:
Wandering, Sleeping and Eating Problems, Agitation, Paranoia
and difficulty with personal tasks. This is not to say these
categories are the only forms of behavioral problems
displayed by people living with Alzheimer’s, but their
remedies may intersect other problems.
is not an uncommon hallmark of Alzheimer’s disease or
dementia. Stress in the variety of noise, clutter or
crowding can cause your loved-one to wander. The best idea
is to reduce excess stress. A person living with Alzheimer’s
disease should be settled in a quiet, clean, and spacious
environment. This will eliminate many of the unwanted
stressors, which could cause your loved-one to wander. Other
reasons why your loved-one may wander include: Feelings of
being lost, boredom, need to use the restroom or medication
order to prevent your loved-one from feeling lost or foreign
to his or her environment, provide them with familiar
objects and reassure them quite frequently that they are at
home or in a safe place. Maybe a family photo or an award he
or she has won always jogs their memory so keep it close by.
If your loved-one displays signs of boredom, give them a
task of limited difficulty. This will keep them entertained
but won’t frustrate them. Folding laundry is a great
activity for people living with Alzheimer’s or dementia.
is possible that your loved-one is wandering because they
need to use the bathroom. In which case, place elaborate
signs or pictures on bathroom doors to help guide them.
Also, it is a good idea for you to implement regular toilet
times. This will keep both of you on schedule. If your
loved-one is wandering due to medication side effects,
contact their physician to initiate a change in prescription
or to lower the dosage. Wandering can be a dangerous
behavior. Caregivers should contact their local Alzheimer’s
Association to obtain information about ‘The Wanderers
Program’ in their area.
living with Alzheimer’s or dementia often experience
sleeping and eating problems. Common causes for these
problems include: discomfort, medication, pain, dehydration,
depression and excessive sleeping or eating.
discomfort can sometimes not be conveyed by your loved-one
depending upon the severity of the disease but it can cause
eating and sleeping disturbances. Frequently monitor your
loved-one’s room temperature, lighting, noise level, and
chair or bed position. If you think your loved-one’s
medications could be curbing his or her appetite or ability
to sleep, speak to their doctor about changing or
can be a factor in eating or sleeping disturbances. Again,
sometimes a person with Alzheimer’s or dementia cannot
express their feelings; if you sense a change in appetite or
sleeping pattern has suddenly occurred without due cause,
set an appointment for a medical examination. Dehydration is
a known factor of sleeping and eating disturbances. Make
sure your loved-one is drinking plenty of water. Place a
pitcher filled with water near your loved-one at all times.
Remind them it is there frequently and check to make sure it
remains somewhat full. Too full can result in another
problem- slip and falls.
you feel your loved-one is showing signs of depression, have
him or her evaluated by their physician. Anti-depressants or
bedtime sedatives may be a productive treatment option.
Depression can also cause excessive sleeping or eating. In
which case, increase their exposure to light and reduce or
eliminate nap time or snack time.
Have Americans accepted a shift in responsibility for their own
retirement security? A new study by MetLife seems to indicate
that they have. … READ MORE
understand why employees- or just about anybody- wants
additional help.with investing (and more). Very few people of
average income can afford to lose another 50%+ in this next
recession. Problem is their employer has no idea who is best
utilized in providing solid risk education with mutual
funds. Ergo, education will help in certain areas but will
continue to be woefully inadequate in preparing for retirement
(and other goals) but few . It starts with
debt levels rose by $US21 trillion last year to $US237
trillion, the highest level on record.
the increase in global debt levels over the past five years
has occurred in emerging markets.
nominal GDP growing faster than debt in 2017, the global
debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 318%.
debt levels rose by a further $21 trillion last year (US
dollars), leaving total outstanding debt at $US237 trillion, the
highest level on record.
sectors recorded an increase in debt loading from the end of
2016, lifting by $4.5 trillion, $6.5 trillion, $4.5 trillion and
$5.5 trillion respectively for households, non-financial
corporates, governments and the financial sector.
paper documents a strong association between stock-bond (SB)
correlations and monetary policy regimes for a sample of 10
developed markets. Negative stock-bond correlations are
associated with periods of accommodating monetary policy, but
only in times of low inflation. Irrespective of the inflation
and/or growth regime, stock-bond correlations are always
positive when monetary policy is restrictive. Pure inflation
and growth regimes instead have little explanatory power for
stock-bond correlations. Our findings are consistent with
recent theoretical research that attributes an important role
not only to the cyclicality of inflation but also to monetary
policy stance for understanding the dynamics of stock-bond
risk tolerance has deteriorated sharply, according to the
latest Retirement Advisor Confidence Index –Financial
monthly survey of wealth managers. The component tracking risk
tolerance plummeted 20.8 points to 37.2, the biggest monthly
drop since the index was launched in 2012. Readings above 50
indicate an increase, while readings below 50 indicate a
report they are frequently reviewing risk positions with
clients, with a particular focus on those nearing or in
retirement. “We’re having discussions about moving some funds
to annuities” to preserve future income, one advisor says.
advisors say the volatility has reinforced expectations for a
deep correction in stocks and that clients are braced for more
pain. The slide in stock prices following the highs set last
year “serves as a reminder that the markets can pull back,”
one advisor says.
freefall in the risk component was the biggest factor behind a
7.1-point drop in the composite RACI to 50.9 – also the
largest retrenchment in the history of the index. The
composite tracks asset allocation; investment product
selection and sales; client risk tolerance and tax liability;
new retirement plan enrollees and planning fees.
at just above 50, the composite remains in expansion
territory. Advisors say they remain confident in the
fundamental strength of the economy and that, while they have
had to coach some clients not to stray from long-term plans,
many have taken higher stock volatility in stride.
a person withCMT.
The lack of muscle, a high arch, and claw toes are signs of
this genetic disease.
such as high arches and hammertoes are common. ... Poor
tolerance for cool or cold temperatures is typical and many
people have chronically cold hands and feet.
abnormalities and difficulty walking are common problems for
people with CMT. Having the right shoes can make a huge
difference! The right pair of shoes can make walking and balance
easier and far more comfortable. But how do you know what type
of shoes to look for?
kinds of problems do people with CMT experience with their
with CMT develop feet with increasingly high arches and lateral
instability (the outside of their feet roll out). This makes it
increasingly difficult for their feet to adequately fit into
shoes, adding to a feeling of greater instability during stance
and in gait; this can lead to ulcerations, ankle, knee and hip
disturbances, balance problems, postural weakness, and long term
are common kinds of concerns that people with CMT should have
when looking for shoes?
the usual concerns of style, color, etc., people with CMT should
think of their shoes as an appliance or device to aid them to
improve stability and balance while standing and walking. This
should include the amount and type of support they receive,
particularly along the lateral side of their feet. They should
focus on finding something that the foot fits into and allows
for necessary modifications to improve balance and gait.
does a pedorthist do?
pedorthist is a footcare pharmacist, providing shoes and related
devices to help improve balance, alignment, posture and gait.
Pedorthists are trained to properly fit people with shoes and
orthotics, ready-made and custom-made. Pedorthists fill footwear
prescriptions from physicians. He or she is trained in anatomy,
biomechanics, foot pathology, and the use of shoes and orthotic
based approaches to help people suffering from mechanical
problems that occur in the foot and ankle. A pedorthist is
trained to proactively alleviate pain and imbalance and help
people lead more active lives.
people with CMT need custom shoes?
on the degree of deformity, some people require custom shoes to
accommodate their needs. Each case must be individually assessed
and evaluated. Often people with CMT do best with ready-made
shoes that are customized to their needs.
people with CMT get modifications in their old shoes as their
People with CMT know that their condition is progressive. Their
shoes should be modified to slow down the progression and
provide improved balance, alignment and gait each step of the
way. Also remember that shoes wear out; they should be repaired
on a regular basis. This will also improve wear life. And, at a
certain point, it is best to start with a fresh pair.
any shoes already designed with extra room to fit braces,
without having to get them modified?
are many brands of ready-made shoes called Extra-Depth Shoes.
These are shoes designed and manufactured with extra room to
specifically meet the accommodative needs of braces. Also people
should consider a shoe that goes above the ankle and a removable
good shoes prevent further foot problems? Can it reduce the
future severity of walking difficulties?
can’t stop the progression of their condition. We can help slow
it down by helping them improve their body balance. Proper
footwear can aid in ambulation and accommodate their feet,
ankles and legs.
there any insurance plans that would cover part of the shoe?
would have to check with your insurance provider. This is
something that varies considerably from policy to policy.
can I find a pedorthist to set up a consultation?
to the websitewww.abcop.org to
locate a pedorthist or pedorthic facility in your area.
special thanks to Robert Schwartz, President, CEO Eneslow
Pedorthic Enterprises, Inc., Dr. Justin Wernick, Sarah Goldberg
and Bart Sherwood for providing us with the answers to these
over age 65 lapse or surrender more than 250,000 policies
with a combined face value of more than $57 billion back to
life carriers each year.
EFM- Certainly owners can simply stop making
payments. But those over 70 have a significant opportunity to
sell the policy in many different ways. That said, I still
believe the policy should be shopped to more than one
company.since the offerings can vary widely.
$1.3 billion was spent in 2016 on outpatient treatment,
according to Kaiser, with the average expense coming in at
$4,700 and employees paying $670 of that bill. Some $911
million went toward inpatient care, which cost $16,100 on
average. Workers were responsible for a little more than
$1,600. Prescription drugs used for treatment cost $435
4/10 I feel so inadequate
By chance I ended up watching a
Japanese kid juggle (yes juggle in the air) three Rubik cubes
and get them all correct in 5 minutes and 20 seconds. The hand
eye coordination was unbelievable
participating in defined contribution plans, like
401(k) plans or similar savings plans, are
responsible for managing their retirement savings
while employed and during their retirement years.
participants their retirement plan account balance
as level monthly payments for their lifetime will
help them assess their retirement readiness and
plan for their retirement. As described in an
advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPRM), the
Department of Labor is considering proposing a
rule that pension benefit statements include the
participant's account balance as a single sum as
well as an estimated lifetime income stream of
level payments using both the participant's
current account balance and the projected account
balance at retirement. For married participants,
the statement also must include joint and survivor
lifetime income payments.
assumptions described in the ANPRM (noted below),
an annuitization approach to estimate the monthly
lifetime income streams based on both the
participant's current account balance and on the
projected value of the account balance at
retirement. For both balances, the calculator
develops two level lifetime payments: one for the
life of the participant (with no benefits to any
survivors) and the second for the joint lives of
the participant and the spouse with a fifty
percent survivor's benefit for the spouse's
calculator uses a simplified computation (e.g.,
annual contributions, mid-year retirement).
Depending on the comments received in response to
the ANPRM, the next version of the calculator may
provide a more precise computation (e.g., monthly
contributions, retirement in a specified month).
maybe so- but the world will see massive changes
till then (and thereafter). The global divide
between rich and poor will destabilize many
countries (including the U.S.). The pattern will
probably get worse after 2030 and a major
confrontation along with massive changes in the
weather (as we are seeing right now) plus a
virulent strain of some virus will cause a
breakdown of civilization by 2050
world’s major economies started to pick up steam together last
year, in a break from years of sluggish post-crisis growth in
which the U.S. often seemed like the lone bright spot.
Global output expanded by 3.7% in 2017, up half a point from
2016, according to International Monetary Fund
estimates. The return of higher growth abroad gave investors
hope that the long bull run could keep going, even as U.S.
economic expansion entered its later stages.
recently, the global economic comeback has been in a bit of
a rut. In the U.S., gauges of manufacturing and services
activity have been pulling back. Retail sales have
fallen for three straight months, construction spending
decelerated at the start of the year, and auto sales have
largely plateaued. On Friday, government data showed a sharp
slowdown in U.S. jobs creation last month, reversing some of
the labor market’s recent momentum.
financial markets also have started to reflect a more
pessimistic view of the economy. The differential between
short- and long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which tends to
grow and shrink alongside the economy’s prospects, was
recently at its smallest in more than a decade.
activity was down in March from the previous month in 21 of 30
countries, led by declines in Asia and Europe, according to
Bespoke Investment Group. Though there’s little fear of an
imminent global recession, the less-than-stellar numbers are
forcing investors to consider that the global growth surge may
be turning into a synchronized stall.
Inc.’s global surprise index tipped below zero on Friday for
the first time since August, indicating that economic data
in aggregate are missing economist forecasts rather than
U.S. investors, much of the economic outlook hinges on trade.
A trade war could have massive repercussions, such as
posing new challenges for production of American goods or
sparking decline in foreign demand. Even a prolonged threat
could cause some companies to hold off on investment until
they have more clarity.
Depression has many causes—it may
be genetic, triggered by a specific event or situation, such as
loneliness, or brought on by lifestyle choices. But it’s really
about an unhealthy brain, and too often people forget this.
“When we think of cardiac health, we think of strengthening an
organ, the heart,” says Drew Ramsey, a psychiatrist in New York,
assistant clinical professor of psychiatry at Columbia and
author of “Eat Complete.” “We need to start thinking of
strengthening another organ, the brain, when we think of mental
bad diet makes depression worse, failing to provide the brain
with the variety of nutrients it needs, Dr. Ramsey says. And
processed or deep-fried foods often contain trans fats that
promote inflammation, believed to be a cause of depression.
what should we eat? The research points to aMediterranean-style
up primarily of fruits and vegetables, extra-virgin olive oil,
yogurt and cheese, legumes, nuts, seafood, whole grains and
small portions of red meat.
EFM- You really REALLY must look at 10 yr minus 2 years. If
the short term rates end up higher than long term rates,
a recession may be next. With such rates now so close, how
could the FED end up raising rates again??? Short term rates
would rise but not necessarily long term.
4/9:Looks like they should be
reversed. As Germany goes, so goes the EURO.
Spain Industrial Production Feb. 2018: 1.5% In line with our expectations, industrial production increased
1.5% m/m in February thanks to solid energy production amid
the unusually cold weather over the month.
Industrial Production Feb.
production disappointed in February, dropping 1.6% m/m
following a revised 0.1% gain in January
This is noted because it is another element of senile
dementia. Good article
4/9: Syria used chemical agents
least 42 people died and more than 500 others exhibited
“symptoms indicative of exposure to a chemical agent,”
we do anything? We should/must. It will strain the relationship
with Russia further. If nothing is done, it is just another line
in the sand where we were gutless to respond previously.
is the future of food:
A rising global population coupled with a warming planet will
lead to increasingly scarce water and energy resources — what
Sir John Beddington, formerly the UK’s chief scientific adviser,
has called a “perfect storm”. Demand for food and
animal feed is set to at least double by 2050. Rural
populations are moving to cities and arable land is being
degraded. As our climate changes, green revolution
technologies will become riskier, costlier and more demanding
on the planet. We will need not one but several solutions
to transform agriculture so that it nourishes us without
diminishing the natural resources on which we all depend
In his Nobel Peace Prize speech “Peace and Humanity”,
Borlaug described the green revolution as: “A temporary
success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation; it has
given man a breathing space.” Fifty years later, this space is
running out. To “breathe”, we need to diversify
agriculture beyond a few crops grown intensively as
monocultures. For “space” we need to cultivate more complex
urban landscapes, such as roof surfaces and gardens, to
encourage city dwellers to contribute to a new kind of
Our global diet — energy rich and nutrient poor — is linked to
an increase in diet-related diseases such as obesity,
diabetes and high blood pressure. The double burden of
over and undernutrition is especially evident in emerging
economies, where active rural communities are rapidly becoming
sedentary urban dwellers. Not only are there now more
obese than underweight people on the planet but, in both
cases, their diets are impoverished. More than 1.5 billion
people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies caused by
monotonous, calorie-rich diets; this is known as “hidden
hunger”. Supermarkets may stock thousands of food products
but they use the same ingredients again and again, often blended
into processed products that are transported across the world.
EFM- In the end, will new
innovations feed another 1.5 billion people by 2050. NOPE. More
and more money will be dedicated to the military.
Sure, some successes will be noted
but not to stare off starvation and all the civil plights
that accompany agricultural global genocide.
4/8: Male ego, arrogance, old
'habits' and a large dose of stupidity
Federal Reserve's benchmark rate is near neutral and
should not be increased much further, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Wednesday.
Bullard has said continued rate increases could make
monetary policy too tight.
: Get a Better Deal on Cable TV and Internet
If you're moving or just looking for a better deal on cable
and/or internet, visit CableMover.
CableMover is a non-profit marketing organization
that helps people find cable and internet providers and
connects them with current promotions. Seeing what is
available in your area is easy. Simply fill out the form on
their site to see special offers.
monthly market valuation updates have long had the
same conclusion: US stock indexes are
significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious
expectations on investment returns. In a "normal"
market environment -- one with conventional
business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest
rates and inflation -- current valuation levels
would be a serious concern.
suicide rate for veterans has gone up35
percent since 2001,
in part because of increases in post-9/11 veterans killing
2013, the United States Department of Veterans Affairs
released a study that covered suicides from 1999 to 2010,
which showed that roughly22
dying by suicide per day, or one every 65 minutes.