for Asset Allocation- Increase Returns, Reduce Risk
SEQUENCE OF RETURNS PLANNING
like the romance is fading. NK has an additional 19 sites
that are doing more construction for missiles. And since
Trump has already pissed off England, Iran, Canada, France,
Germany- and who knows how many more- he can now turn
his attention to Melania and her needs. But he is sure to
get rid of Kelly and a bunch of others soon so that should
make him feel better.
While House is in dire need of a leader
OIL- With prices coming down, will rigs be shut??
today’s newsletter, we
will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and
data in the energy
markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early
this week before
providing you with the latest analysis of the top news
events taking place in
the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope
- The IEA says that the petrochemical
industry will drive
crude oil demand forward over the next 20 years.
- The developing world is set to
experience more than 5 mb/d
of demand increase from passenger vehicles, but that is
mostly offset by demand
destruction in rich countries.
- That leaves heavy trucks and
petrochemicals as the main
sources of demand growth
- As a result, the IEA does not see
overall peak oil demand
on Board: Does the Gender Diversity Reduce Default
9th Conference on Financial Markets and Corporate Governance (FMCG) 2018
SEARAT ALI, Griffith
University, Griffith Business School, Department of
Accounting, Finance and Economics, Students
BENJAMIN LIU, Griffith University - Department of
Accounting, Finance and Economics
J.J. SU, Griffith University
the first comprehensive and robust evidence on the causal
effect of boardroom gender diversity on default risk for
831non-financial Australian firms over the period from 2008
to 2013. We show that the proportion of female directors
have an overall negative effect on default risk. The inverse
effect of gender diversity on default risk is robust to
alternative measures of gender diversity and default risk,
and to alternative econometric specifications including the
control for time-invariant firm characteristics,
instrumental variable approach, propensity score matching,
difference-in-differences, models based on changes in
variables, and dynamic panel data estimation techniques. We
also find that gender diversity reduces default risk through
the mechanism of decreased information asymmetry (i.e.,
improved information environment). Further, we show that the
inverse effect of gender diversity on default risk is
stronger for firms with weak external governance and strong
internal governance, suggesting that gender diversity could
act as partial substitute for weak external governance
quality but complementary for internal governance quality.
Since the benefits of adding more females to boards are
under current discussion, these findings will enrich the
regulatory debate and also provide a guideline to
investors and firms in designing appropriate trading
strategies and governance structures, respectively.
Overall, our results support the recent calls for more
females sitting on corporate boards.
Men die on average five years earlier
than women, according to the US
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
and testicular cancer contribute to the disparity. Also, four
out of five people who kill themselves are men
Tolerance and Circumstances
investor’s risk attitude is a stable characteristic, like a
personality trait, but risk-taking behavior can change based
on the investor’s age, recent market events, and life
experiences. These factors change investors’ perceptions of
the risks. Differences in risk tolerance between men and
women or in different circumstances trace back to emotional
as much as rational considerations. Financial advisers
should consider all of these factors when advising clients
and can use four simple steps to incorporate best practices:
be aware, educate, nudge, and hand hold.
term risk tolerance is defined and used in different ways.
Whether risk tolerance is a stable characteristic of a
given investor or also takes into account external
circumstances (e.g., economic shocks or the domain of the
decision) depends on how it is defined and measured. This
brief focuses on a definition of risk tolerance prevalent
in the practitioner community—namely, an investor’s
willingness to take perceived risk or the trade-off an
investor is willing to make between the perceived risk and
expected return of different investment choices. This
definition derives from a psychological interpretation of
the risk–return framework of classical portfolio theory.
It treats risk tolerance as an attitude toward risk and
decouples this pure attitudinal variable from the
perceptions of risks and returns—psychological variables
in their own right and distinct from the expected value
and variance of the distribution of possible outcomes.
Wrong Risk should be (and is by me for decades)
by how much you can lose (mutual funds and ETFs- which are
the main investments used by 90%+ of Americans) during a
My formula provides an approximation of what could be lost
by most funds and ETS (with histories- cannot work with
newly minted investments). Client is then asked- how much
do you want to lose?'
That is a definitive risk acceptance or denial based on
numbers not esoteric banalities from a client
questionnaire. . Steps three and four of my Process
identified above then shows how investors can reduce risk
to 12% to maybe 15% (depends on the funds selected.) The
Process has nothing to do with selection. The Process
(step 4) then shows the time to get back in based on an
Does race matter? Of course. How about just a name
'team' sent 6,500 emails to randomly selected
professors from 259 US universities. The
sender of the email was a fictional, out-of-town, prospective
PhD student who expressed interest in the professor’s graduate
program and sought his or her guidance. The emails were
identical and impeccably written, varying only in the name of
the senders, which included Meredith Roberts, Lamar
Washington, Juanita Martinez, Raj Singh and Chang Huang.
We used 20 different names in 10 different race-gender
categories; some could be perceived as white and male, some
could not. (Our study examined another issue related to the
timing of the request, but for the findings reported here, the
prospective student was requesting a meeting for the following
67 percent of the faculty members responded; of those, more
than half agreed to meet with the fictional student. (As soon
as the professor wrote back, we immediately canceled the
meeting.) However, professors were more responsive to white
males compared to other students in almost every discipline
and across all types of universities and bias was most severe
at private universities and in disciplines paying higher
faculty salaries (with business showing the most bias). Even
when the student and the faculty member shared a race or
gender, we saw the same levels of bias. The only exception was
Chinese students writing to Chinese professors; they received
more responses. Nonetheless, Chinese students were the
most discriminated-against group in our study.
somewhat surprised when faculty and student were of the same
race or gender, there still was bias. I would have liked to
know WHY? Is THAT much bias programmed in our society. Seems
is only 1 generation away from losing its’ freedom."
This has to stop-
is paying 80 percent more than other nations for drugs.
federal government is projected to issue $1.34 trillion
of new debt in 2018 — its most since the depths of the
Great Recession — according to Treasury Department
projections released Monday.
will ultimately put us into a very bad corner and devatate
Only partly right
How 401(k)s Can Help Recruit and Retain Employees
by Roger Lee / Workforce
Four in five employees indicate they want benefits and perks
more than a pay raise, and a 401(k) ranks in the top five
requested benefits, according to a recent Glassdoor survey.
On top of that, when it comes to millennials, benefits are
particularly appealing – 90 percent of employees 18 to 34
years old say they would prefer benefits over pay.
Attracting, recruiting and retaining employees is a costly
and time-consuming process. That’s why it’s imperative to
bring in top candidates and hire them with the intent of
keeping them at your company as long as possible.
Here are three ways a high-quality 401(k) can help your
recruiting and retention efforts:
1. Attract top talent and build high-performing teams
2. Tip the balance in your company’s favor
3. Increase employee retention
the missing part is solid information/knowledge on
investing. They are not getting it. Check losses in 2000
(49%) and 2008 (57%). Should not have exceeded roughly 15%.
What people spend out-of-pocket on healthcare in 23 states
Morgan Haefner / Becker's Hospital CFO Report
In 2017, patients in Utah faced the highest out-of-pocket
healthcare costs compared to 22 other states, according to a
report from global think tank JPMorgan Chase Institute. The
report analyzed data on 4.7 million Chase customers in 23
states between January 2013 and December 2017. Researchers
found the average annual out-of-pocket healthcare spending
climbed 8.5 percent in 2017 compared to the year prior.
Here is how average annual out-of-pocket spending stacked up
among the 23 states featured in the report, listed from
highest to lowest:
New Jersey: $702
Not Seeking Help for the Hardest Retirement Concerns
study found the top financial tasks individuals
need help with include choosing when to retire,
choosing appropriate investments and developing a
strategy to withdraw from multiple accounts. Read more >
Or they end up using their parents, friends, co-workers et
al for advice. In a way I cannot blame them since finding a
planner is extremely difficult. You should at least get one
who has had experience with the last mess of 2008 and
preferably for 2000 as well. Means at least 15 years
experience. That's good for a start.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2017
by Jill Mislinski, 10/19/18
this week, we updated our commentary on
household income distribution to include
the Census Bureau's release of the 2017
annual data. Our focus was on arithmetic
mean (average) household incomes by
quintile (and the top 5%) over the 50+
year history of this data series. The
analysis offered some fascinating
insights into U.S. household incomes.
activity has decimated
reducing species counts by an average of 60% over the last
populations of more than 4,000 mammal, bird, fish, reptile
and amphibian species, the WWF researchers found
staggering declines between 1970 and 2014. These
reductions are thought to be directly linked to human
activity since current rates of species extinction are
now 100 to 1,000 times higher than before human
pressures became a factor.
Living Planet Report
Apparently China can't Read
move marks a major about-face for China,
which has taken steps to curb its image as
fueling the slaughter and illicit sale
of endangered animals
advisory panel wants 'fiduciary' in Reg BEST INTEREST
article meant to clarify the use of fiduciary by the SEC. Go
ahead and see if you can make sense out of it. I really
couldn't. Imagine how consumers will get confused
Concerns Inform Education Opportunities
life expectancy among Americans—which currently
stands at 76 years for men and 81 for women—has
extended the average retirement period to 18
years, and it highlights the need for individuals
to have a comprehensive plan for saving and
investing, according to BMO Wealth Management U.S.
A survey of more than 500 Americans age 55 and
older finds top concerns about a lengthy
retirement are health care costs and quality of
life (46%), being a burden on family members
(45%), and running out of money during retirement
(44%). BMO says individuals should know to plan
for living beyond the average life expectancy and
what medical expenses to expect, among other
things. Read more >
you should however see life expectancy stagnate by 2035 and
even drop thereafter. Why? Climate change will change the
world negatively and irreparably by man. Mother Earth is
When it rained in WWI, none of the soldiers on either side
came out to fight. And that is why we should give Trump a
pass for not going to the cemetery.
is warming much faster
a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere's landmass sits above
permafrost. Trapped in this frozen soil and vegetation is
more than twice the carbon found in the atmosphere.
fossil-fuel burning warms the Earth, this ground is thawing,
allowing microbes to consume buried organic matter and
release carbon dioxide and shorter-lived methane, which
is 25 times as potent a greenhouse
gas as CO2.
a region's active layer stops freezing consistently,
consequences can be swift. Once unfrozen, soil microbes in
the active layer can decompose organic material and
release greenhouse gases year-round—not just in summer.
And it exposes permafrost below to more heat so that
layer, too, can begin thawing and releasing gases.
More climate changes
lush, El Salvador is dangerously close to running dry
country's shrinking water supply is in jeopardy as weak
regulation, lagging services, and climate variability fuel a
fell below the $60 level,
a day after slipping into a bear market. That means U.S.
crude is now down by around 20% since early October as
rising supply and concerns of an economic slowdown pressure
prices. Fresh U.S. sanctions are unlikely to cut as much oil
out of the market as initially expected with Washington
granting temporary exemptions to Iran's biggest buyers.
American production has also reached a new record high of
prices have hit a multi-month low as bearish sentiment takes
over markets and OPEC considers reimplementing a production
Term Care and veterans
than 40 million people in the United States serve as unpaid
caregivers, usually for an aging parent or a grandparent.
only do they lack compensation, but they spend on average
one-fifth of their income on caregiving expenses, according to
a recent report by AARP. These out-of-pocket expenses keep
them from saving for their own retirement.
one-fourth of those unpaid caregivers are Millennials, trying
to balance their work and family obligations and handle the
financial stress of paying out of pocket to support a parent
or grandparent while still paying off student loans.
all likelihood, the number of unpaid caregivers will continue
to grow as the elderly population doubles over the next
for veterans or their surviving spouses, there may be some
relief. VA Pension benefits -- commonly called Aid and
Attendance (A&A) benefits -- help veterans and their
surviving spouses pay for in-home care, assisted living-,
memory- or nursing care as well as medical supplies and
pension benefits are available to former service members (who
are older than 65 or completely disabled) or their surviving
spouses. Additionally, the service member must have been
discharged (not dishonorably) after at least 90 days of
consecutive, active-duty service with at least one of those
days during a wartime period.
applicants must meet limited asset requirements. The net worth
limit is $123,600 for 2018 and is indexed for inflation. Net
worth does not generally include the veteran’s primary
residence or vehicle. It does include assets in bank accounts,
stocks, bonds and commercial or secondary property holdings as
well as one year’s Income for VA Purposes (IVAP).
calculating IVAP, veterans and surviving spouses can deduct
certain unreimbursed monthly care expenses. These include
skilled nursing, assisted living costs, and long-term care and
health insurance premiums. They also include in-home care
provided by a non-spouse relative.
applying for A&A, you could help defray the costs of your
own care and compensate your relatives so they do not have to
defer their own retirement planning or deepen their debt.
AARP study, Millennials:
The Emerging Generation of Family Caregivers, found
that millennials spend 21 hours per week on caregiving duties.
Nearly three quarters of them, 73 percent, work also. More
than half, 54 percent, say their work or career prospects have
been negatively affected by their caregiving commitments. The
average respondent reported spending $6,800 per year of their
own income on caregiving expenses.
were similar for older caregivers in a 2016 AARP study. That
study found that more than three quarters, 78 percent paid
out-of-pocket for caregiving expenses. On average family
caregivers spent $6,954 per year. This amounted to nearly 20
percent of their annual income on average.
than half of employed caregivers, 56 percent, said caregiving
affected their work. Due to their caregiving responsibilities,
respondents said they worked different hours, fewer/more
hours, or took time off (whether paid or unpaid).
family caregivers also cut back on other spending because of
caregiving obligations. One in six reduced contributions to
their retirement savings and almost half cut back on leisure
spending such as eating out or vacations.
you are concerned about costly long-term care and the effect
it could have on your family’s future financial prospects,
consult with a trusted, VA-approved elder law attorney. An
attorney can help you determine your options to not only pay
for your care but help your family stay out of debt.
homes caught in wave of climate gentrification
levels are rising, and that could be causing waves of
unexpected house price increases in poorer coastal areas.
rich will buy the homes since they are able to pay for
higher insurance. The article also noted that in areas like
New Orleans, the poor neighborhoods did not rebuild so the
rich could buy into newly built homes in an exclusive
certain areas remain in critical ocean areas and their
prices have gone down by up to 10%
Another big one bites the dust (life insurance)
is the latest U.S. life insurer to exit a business
that was once a core part: life insurance sold to
company will keep its existing block of life-insurance
policies and pay out claims as they come due.
move follows the withdrawal by MetLife
Inc. from sales of new life policies to individuals
last year. Then the largest U.S. life insurer by assets,
MetLife hived off much of its U.S. retail life-insurance
operations into a new company named Brighthouse
Inc. Brighthouse became a publicly traded company
in August of 2017.
Voya and MetLife continue to sell life insurance to
employers through group-benefit arrangements. But those
and many other insurers face a sluggish environment for
selling these policies directly to American families, many
of whom are more concerned about outliving their savings
than dying prematurely. Voya has a large business
selling 401(k) and other tax-advantaged retirement-savings
Rising Costs Could Threaten Puerto Rico’s
that's a no brainer article. But costs for the Carolinas,
Texas, et al are also rising. The U.S. will leave a lot of
areas free of more building simply because more dramatic
storms will be coming. Puerto Rico- I am not sure they will
ever get back to where they were- which wasn't that great to
if we can spend a few hundred million on our Army to roll
out some barb wire due to a rampant invasion by a massing
hoard of immigrants carrying children for 1000's of
miles with no shelter, ............................
occasional characteristic of Tourette’s syndrome in which
the sufferer involuntarily utters socially inappropriate
remarks. It's now called Trumpette syndrome
called Trumpolalia- though this disease is where the
sufferer intends on uttering such remarks and
defending it as something else. Will last until death. Even
after if some tweets are left in storage for use later on.
stated, not all his issues are bad- and I never said they
were. But I have stated he is a schmuck many times. The
stuff about McCain and women was just insufferable. And
unforgivable for me)
the Federal Budget Deficit Keeps Getting Bigger
Lear Capital Research (Nov 5 2018)
the nation, American families have to keep their budgets
balanced in order to make ends meet. But the same has
never been true of the U.S. federal government, which has
routinely run budget deficits by spending more than it
brings in through taxes and other revenue sources.
deficits have been a bipartisan effort, with Republicans and
Democrats trading positions of power in Congress and the
White House without having found any permanent resolutions
to the issue.
a couple of answers
have totally and completely misunderstood the trends
within the global economy and as a result, they are
actually creating one of the worst economic debacles in
United States is taking on too much debt right now, a
problem that is will only worsen moving forward, former
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Tuesday.
I had a magic wand, I would raise taxes and cut retirement
spending," Yellen told CNBC's Steve Liesman at
the Charles Schwab Impact conference in Washington, D.C.,
who characterized the U.S. debt path as "unsustainable."
Come The Robos
Schwab has published a new report, “The
Rise of Robo: Americans’ Perspectives and Predictions on
the use of Digital Advice,
Despite the benefits of
automation with a robo advisor, it is clear that Americans
still see value in the ability to interact with a person
when needed. Seventy-one percent of people want a robo
advisor that also has access to human advice and nearly half
(45 percent) not using a robo advisor today would be more
likely to use one if it has quick and easy access to human
support. Even among millennials, 79 percent want a robo
advisor that also provides access to human advice.
Beyond investing, 42 percent of
boomers are more comfortable relying on technology than
people to answer questions and solve problems, and boomers
also report that technology has helped them improve their
financial lives: 51 percent say technology gives them more
confidence of mind when it comes to finances and 44 percent
say technology has helped them reach financial goals.
Although robo advice is often thought of as a tool primarily
for younger investors, older generations see the appeal as
well. In fact, nearly half of baby boomers using a robo
advisor today say the service is perfect for their life
stage. Among all boomers, 62 percent agree that robo advice
takes the emotion out of investing, nearly half (49 percent)
say it helps them maintain a diversified portfolio, and 46
percent trust robo advisors to provide more transparent
Happens in the Arctic Doesn't Stay There
Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research who was not involved with the new
research, said the study has some "compelling new evidence on
the link between amplified Arctic warming and extreme
mid-latitude weather during the summer months."
happens in the Arctic doesn't stay there. Increased melting of
reflective sea ice in summer exposes more dark-colored ocean
to absorb heat, and that heats the surrounding land. As Arctic
warming races ahead of the rest of the global average, the
temperature contrasts that drive the jet stream are reduced,
and the river of wind more frequently twists into sharp and
slow-moving or stationary waves.
the jet stream enters this wavy state, extreme weather tends
to occur on either side of the amplified ridges and troughs as
the storm track becomes locked in place," Swain said. Then,
specific regions experience long periods of cool and stormy
or, contrarily, hot and dry weather, he added.
OIL- the U.S. is doing GREAT
today’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the
critical figures and data in the energy markets this
We will then look at some of the key market movers early
this week before providing you with the latest analysis of
the top news events taking place in the global energy
complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
- U.S. monthly oil production jumped to
11.3 million barrels per day in August, a new all-time
record high. Production in Texas topped 4.6 mb/d in
- The jump was enough to make the U.S.
the largest oil producer in the world, overtaking
Russia’s 11.2 mb/d.
- Pipeline constraints and other
bottlenecks were expected to slow development. “However,
industry efficiencies in pipeline utilization and increased
trucking and rail transport in the region have allowed crude
oil production to continue to grow at a higher rate than EIA
expected,” the EIA wrote in a report.
first Aid Kit for Caregivers
it’s not funny how often we forget to do this simple act and
how well it lifts our spirits
someone who makes you feel good, especially if you haven’t
spoken with them in a long time
a bite of something sinfully delicious, while being
conscious your own dietary limitations. When was the last
time you treated yourself to a snack?
a bubble bath, once you make sure that your loved one is
safe and secure, nothing expresses caregiver self-care
better than a leisurely bubble bath
pick up that novel or re-read that motivating poem. When was
the last time you turned off the television, turned down the
phone and read something nice? (P.S. this tip goes very well
with tip number 3.)
a massage. It’s like taking a mini vacation. It will relax
you and take care of all the tension you build up every day.
yourself some flowers. You deserve it and the sight and
smell of something beautiful and fragrant will give you a
reason to smile (see number 1).
a walk at a pace that allows you to feel the energy of the
wind washing over you.
shopping buy something “just for you”, something that makes
you feel special.
online. You can explore different places, find new friends
and learn new things. Make the Internet your getaway even
when you can’t get out of the house.
5.5 million Americans have Alzheimer disease or dementia.
Results of a study published in the Journal of Law, Medicine
& Ethics indicate that individuals who have knowledge of
their Alzheimer disease biomarker status may possibly be
exposed to adverse long-term care insurance coverage
studies suggest that decisions can be influenced by
apparently irrelevant actions or events that took place just
before the cusp of choice. They have been a boom area in
psychology over the past decade, and some of their insights
have already made it out of the lab and into the toolkits of
policy wonks keen on “nudging” the populace.
The killing of Khashoggi has brought the atrocity of Yemen to
the surface. If his death can stop the killing, then he
certainly did not die in vain. He may have done more good for
humanity than anyone this year. Unfortunately, as of this
morning, more bombing is going on
How the War in Yemen Became a Bloody Stalemate — and
the Worst Humanitarian Crisis in the World.He may have
done more good for humaity
Arabia thought a bombing campaign would quickly crush its
enemies in Yemen. But three years later, the Houthis refuse to
give up, even as 14 million people face starvation.
lungs oversee the body’s oxygen needs by taking in air deep
into their corridors (called bronchi), allowing for oxygen and
carbon dioxide to filter in and out of the blood. The dance of
oxygen exchange becomes more complicated with inhaled
pollutants of different kinds, such as tobacco smoke,
pollution and congestion from infections.
lungs also help the body’s metabolic process, releasing more
carbon dioxide in situations where the kidneys need help
keeping the body’s acid and alkaline quantities balanced. They
can release more or less carbon dioxide if needed in a given
body system works with the other to keep the body in a state
of health. Illness can be acute (short term) or chronic
(recurrent). Each disease has its own definition of acute or
chronic. Lung disease can be caused by restrictive conditions
such as spinal curvature, or obstructive conditions like
emphysema. Lung disease is often a mixture of more than one
condition, and both restrictive and obstructive conditions can
occur at the same time.
National Institute of Health estimates that 12 million people
have been diagnosed with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
(COPD).The term COPD is a general designation for a group of
lung diseases that includes asthma, chronic bronchitis,
emphysema and bronchiectasis.
causes shortness of breath, and problems with mucus clearing
and oxygen exchange from the lungs to the blood vessels. Each
of the diseases that fall under the COPD classification
creates different changes in the lung tissue, but essentially
similar symptoms and challenges. Air flow is not only
obstructed from going deep into the lungs. The ability to
exhale properly hampers the next breath coming in.
airways can collapse because the smaller airways “flop” closed
when exhaling. The closed airway may need medication to open
them up, or an altered breathing pattern that lets the air
flow out more smoothly. Ideally, a combination of the two
provides consistent help. The trapping of air prevents easy
exchange of oxygen and carbon dioxide, and the “dance” that
occurs when a new breath carries in fresh air causes “old” air
to block the entry of “new” air. It’s similar to people
needing to exit an elevator before others can get in.
IS A BEGINNING
diagnosed in early stages of COPD may have an easier time
adapting to lifestyle changes to assist with management of the
disease. Eliminating smoking is a first course of action; and
the earlier one starts, the simpler it may be.
like pulmonary rehabilitation are designed to adapt to the
current state of health, and provide great benefits at any
stage of diagnosis. Pulmonary rehabilitation by competent
professionals includes breathing exercises, education on
energy conservation and supervised exercise to improve
all cases, COPD increases the amount of work it takes to
breathe. Conserving energy, especially in later stages,
improves breathing and the body’s ability to transfer oxygen.
By supplying the body’s oxygen needs adequately, everything
from digestion to sleep is positively affected.
members and loved ones can have a difficult time with COPD
diagnosis, treatment and day-to-day activities. Meals and
medication schedules may have to be changed to assist the
loved one with maintaining their health. Where meds and meals
could be delayed or possibly skipped until a “convenient”
time, a stricter schedule may have to be adhered to, delaying
may not understand a progressive intolerance to certain odors
from cleaning solutions, pets or colognes. The COPD patient
may have adapted to exposure to some environments, but once
diagnosed and advised on making changes, it may be less
Valorie Bender has been diagnosed with COPD, specifically
emphysema. She and her husband Michael had a number of
adaptations to make during the first few years after her
diagnosis.“Michael is a lot taller than me. If he sprayed air
freshener or any kind of spray, I knew to stay out of the room
until he was done.” Any spray releasing aerosol will have
droplets that can be breathed in. Mrs. Bender learned to stay
away from the area until the droplets had settled to avoid the
mist penetrating her lungs.
goes on to explain that adapting to COPD comes over time, and
requires some creative thinking. With over a foot difference
in height between the Benders, they are able to spot smokers
to steer both of them away from second-hand smoke.“You have to
be careful of people’s feelings” she indicates. Smokers, with
or without a cigarette, carry the odor on their breath or
clothing. The second- hand smoke can irritate lungs and
trigger the need to use an inhaler. Preceding that would be a
may be used to strangers “commenting” on smoking by faking an
intense cough. Mrs. Bender has chosen the middle path of
dealing with this by avoiding the situation as much as
possible. Family members may forget from time to time, or a
new individual may be brought into their circle, requiring
fancy footwork in being direct but kind. As her husband and
caregiver, Michael Bender’s biggest adjustment was identifying
what actions might be needed.“Michael had to learn not to
panic when I went into a coughing attack.”
LEARN TO SAY “WHEN”
ones with COPD may dig their heels in when it comes to
adapting. Caregivers may feel obliged to push the situation.
To eliminate stress on both parties, a middle ground is a
Valorie Bender’s “coughing fits” started, Michael learned to
stay as calm as possible and just observe Valorie’s actions.
If her handheld inhaler was needed, he could help by getting
it for her, or help her to a chair to sit down until the
coughing spasm passed. As they began to accept their roles in
coping with COPD, caregiver and care receiver panic
diminished. Michael learned the general “flow” of her coughing
spasm, and that not all episodes are an emergency. Valorie, as
the COPD patient, has adapted to letting herself get through
the cough experience at her own rate, rather than push herself
to “hurry up and get better so as not to panic Michael.”
Benders have developed a lifestyle that may have limitations
they didn’t have before Mrs. Bender’s diagnosis. Their changed
lifestyle takes their mutual mental, emotional and physical
well-being into the spotlight. Developing coping skills and
creative management of activities has improved their
relationship and mutual health.
Very interesting- but would need more investigation
Attitudes in the U.S. Population: Evidence from Dynamically
Optimized Sequential Experimentation (DOSE)
Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie
Wang and Colin
Working Paper Series from CESifo
introduce DOSE - Dynamically Optimized Sequential
Experimentation - and use it to estimate individual-level loss
aversion in a representative sample of the U.S. population (N
= 2,000). DOSE elicitations are more accurate, more stable
across time, and faster to administer than standard methods. We
find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss
tolerant. This is counter to earlier findings, which
mostly come from lab/student samples, that a strong majority
of participants are loss averse. Loss attitudes are correlated
with cognitive ability: loss aversion is more prevalent in
people with high cognitive ability, and loss tolerance is
more common in those with low cognitive ability. We also
use DOSE to document facts about risk and time preferences,
indicating a high potential for DOSE in future research.
experiments; DOSE; loss
preferences (search for similar items
JEL-codes: C81 C90 D81 D90 (search
for similar items in EconPapers)
references in EconPapers View
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Cost-Benefit Analysis in Reasoning
Larbi Alaoui; Antonio Penta
an individual thinks about a problem, his decision
to reason further may involve a tradeoff between
cognitive costs and a notion of value. But it is not
obvious that this is always the case, and the value
of reasoning is not well-defined. This paper
analyzes the primitive properties of the reasoning
process that must hold for the decision to stop
thinking to be represented by a cost-benefit
analysis. We find that the properties that
characterize the cost-benefit representation are
weak and intuitive, suggesting that such a
representation is justified for a large class of
problems. We then provide additional
properties that give more structure to the value of
reasoning function, including ‘value of information’
and ‘maximum gain’ representations. We show how our
model applies to a variety of settings, including
contexts involving sequential heuristics in choice,
response time, reasoning in games and research. Our
model can also be used to understand
economically relevant patterns of behavior for
which the cost-benefit approach does not seem to
hold. These include choking under pressure and
and incentives, Choice theory, reasoning, fact-free
learning, sequential heuristics
D01 D03 D80 D83
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The causal effect of trust
Björn Bartling; Ernst Fehr; David Huffman; Nick Netzer
affects almost all human relationships – in
families, organizations, markets and politics.
However, identifying the conditions under which
trust, defined as people's beliefs in the
trustworthiness of others, has a causal effect on
the efficiency of human interactions has proven to
be difficult. We show experimentally and
theoretically that trust indeed has a causal
effect. The duration of the effect depends,
however, on whether initial trust variations are
supported by multiple equilibria. We study a
repeated principal-agent game with multiple
equilibria and document empirically that an efficient
equilibrium is selected if principals believe that
agents are trustworthy, while players coordinate
on an inefficient equilibrium if principals
believe that agents are untrustworthy. Yet, if
we change the institutional environment such that
there is a unique equilibrium, initial variations in
trust have short-run effects only. Moreover, if we
weaken contract enforcement in the latter
environment, exogenous variations in trust do not
even have a short-run effect. The institutional
environment thus appears to be key for whether trust
has causal effects and whether the effects are
transient or persistent.
causality, equilibrium selection, belief
distortions, incomplete contracts, screening,
C91 D02 D91 E02
and Real Estate: Do Looks Matter and Do Incentives
NBER Working Paper No. w25174
EDWARD L. GLAESER, Harvard
University - Department of Economics, Brookings Institution,
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
does the appearance of a house, or its neighbors, impact its
price? (EFM- a LOT) Do events that impact the incentives
facing homeowners, like foreclosure, impact the maintenance
and appearance of a home? Using computer vision techniques, we
find that a one standard deviation improvement in the
appearance of a home in Boston is associated with a .16 log
point increase in the home’s value, or about $68,000 at the
sample mean. The additional predictive power created by images
is small relative to location and basic home variables, but
external images do outperform variables collected by in-person
home assessors. A home’s value increases by .4 log points,
when its neighbor’s visually predicted value increases by one
log point, and more visible neighbors have a larger price
impact than less visible neighbors. Homes that went through
foreclosure during the 2008-09 financial crisis experienced a
.04 log point decline in their appearance-related value,
relative to comparable homes, suggesting that foreclosures
reduced the incentives to maintain the housing stock. We do
not find more depreciation of appearance in rental properties,
or more upgrading of appearance by owners before resale.
MICHAEL SCOTT KINCAID, Harvard University
NIKHIL NAIK, Massachusetts Institute of
Buy a whole mess of posies or whatever is colorful and plant
them around the house- particularly the front. If the paint
is bad, consider repainting. It will bring in more money due
to the enhanced curb appeal. Bake cookies, a turkey, use
popcorn- the smell makes it feel like home. Use throw rugs
over a bad carpet. The buyers know it will need to be
replaced but the coverage helps dull the senses. First and
foremost- CURB APPEAL
Another important economic issue
Impact of Permanent Residency Delays for STEM PhDs:
Who Leaves and Why"
NBER Working Paper No. w25175
SHULAMIT KAHN, Boston
University - Department of Finance & Economics
assesses whether delays in obtaining permanent residency
status can explain recent declines in the share of Chinese and
Indian PhD graduates from US STEM programs who remain in the
US after their studies. We find that newly-binding limits
on permanent visas for those from China and India with
advanced degrees are significantly associated with declines
in stay rates. The stay rate of Chinese graduates declines
by 2.4 percentage points for each year of delay, while
Indian graduates facing delays of at least 5 1/2 years have
a stay rate that is 8.9 percentage points lower. The
per-country permanent visa cap affects a large share of STEM
PhDs who are disproportionately found in fields of study that
have been crucial in stimulating US economic growth yet enroll
relatively few natives. Finally, results suggest that the
growth of science in countries of origin has an important
influence on stay rates, while macroeconomic factors such as
GDP per capita affect stay rates only via their impact on
science funding. We conclude that per-country limits play a
significant role in constraining the supply of highly skilled
STEM workers in the US economy.
MEGAN MACGARVIE, Boston University School of
Management, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
I cannot swim that well at all. But then there is this
A British man who spent five months at sea is believed
to be the first person to swim around Britain.
one marathon a day for a couple weeks is bad enough but I am
awestruck that any one would attempt this never mind complete.
Provider Incentives in Long Term Care"
NBER Working Paper No. w25178
MARTIN B. HACKMANN, University
of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER)
patient and provider incentives affect mode and cost of
long-term care? Our analysis of 1 million nursing home stays
yields three main insights. First, Medicaid-covered
residents prolong their stays instead of transitioning to
community-based care due to limited cost-sharing. Second,
nursing homes shorten Medicaid stays when capacity binds to
admit more profitable out-of-pocket payers. Third, providers
react more elastically to financial incentives than
patients, so moving to episode-based provider reimbursement
is more effective in shortening Medicaid stays than
increasing resident cost-sharing. Moreover, we do not
find evidence for health improvements due to longer stays for
marginal Medicaid beneficiaries.
VINCENT POHL, University of Georgia - C. Herman
and Mary Virginia Terry College of Business - Department of
15 Cheapest States for Long-Term Care: 2018
2004 to 2018, Genworth's study has tracked the pace of
increases in the cost of different types of care. For facility
and in-home care services, the increase has been on average
within a range of 1.5%–3.8% per year. “That’s an
increase of $700 annually for home care and up to $2,500
annually for a private room in a nursing home.”
aren’t keeping up with the cost of health care as it is;
adding the cost of long-term care to the package is a real
struggle for many families — particularly since, the study
adds, “At this rate, some care costs are outpacing the U.S.
inflation rate of 2.1% by almost double.”
the annual median cost of care now ranging from $18,720 for
adult day care services to $100,375 for a private room in a
nursing home, the states in the gallery above offer some of
the lowest-cost options.
Is their love dying?:
Future of Healthcare: A National Survey of Physicians
2018 Future of Healthcare report, compiled from the
observations of more than 3,400 doctors, has uncovered a
complex picture of the attitudes of physicians nationwide
toward the important issues facing the industry.
Out of 10 Physicians Unwilling to Recommend Healthcare as a
changes in healthcare likely to lead you to retire over the
next five years?
will value-based care and reimbursement (pay for
performance) impact your relationship with patients over the
next five years?
German chancellor may not be leaving the stage
immediately, but Angel Merkel's announcement on
Monday that she will not seek re-election either as head of
government or of her party, the CDU, opens a huge space
in EU politics
moderate, even-tempered chancellor, affectionately known in
Germany as 'Mutti' (mummy), is bowing out as exponents
of authoritarianism, nativism, anti-establishment populism
and contempt for the west’s post-1945 values consolidate
their power across the world."
going to be very interesting and crucial to calm EU as it
IRS has announced cost-of-living adjustments affecting
dollar limitations for pension plans and other
retirement-related items for tax year 2019. The 2019 limits
are contained in Notice
2018-83, released Nov. 1.
limits for 2019 are as follows.
limitation under Code Section 402(g)(1) on the exclusion for
elective deferrals described in Code Section 402(g)(3) is
$19,000. The IRS set the 2018 level at $18,500; the level
for 2016 and 2017 was $18,000.
limitation on deferrals under Code Section 457(e)(15)
concerning deferred compensation plans of state and local
governments and tax-exempt organizations is $19,000 for
2019. The 2018 and 2017 levels were $18,500 and $18,000,
an IRA contributor who is not covered by a workplace
retirement plan and is married to someone who is covered,
the deduction is phased out if the couple’s income is
between $193,000 and $203,000; the 2018 levels were $189,000
and $199,000, respectively.
AGI phase-out range for taxpayers making contributions to a
Roth IRA is $193,000 to $203,000 for married couples filing
jointly; the 2018 range was $189,000 to $199,000.
singles and heads of household, the income phase-out range
is $122,000 to $137,000; the 2018 range was $120,000 to
AGI limit for the Saver’s Credit (also known as the
retirement savings contribution credit) under Code Sections
25B(b)(1)(C) and 25B(b)(1)(D) is:
limitation on the annual benefit under a defined benefit
plan under Internal Revenue Code Section 415(b)(1)(A) is
$225,000; the 2018 level was $220,000, while the level for
2017, 2016 and 2015 was $215,000. For a participant who
separated from service before Jan. 1, 2019, the limitation
for defined benefit plans under Code Section 415(b)(1)(B) is
computed by multiplying the participant’s compensation
limitation, as adjusted through 2018, by 1.0264.
limitation for defined contribution plans under Code Section
415(c)(1)(A) is $56,000; the 2018 and 2017 limits were
$55,000 and $54,000, respectively.
dollar amount under Code Section 409(o)(1)(C)(ii) for
determining the maximum account balance in an employee stock
ownership plan subject to a five-year distribution period is
$1,130,000; the level for 2018 was $1,105,000, and for 2017
it was $1,080,000. The dollar amount used to determine the
lengthening of the five-year distribution period is $225,000
for 2019; the 2018 and 2017 levels were $220,000 and
dollar limitation under Code Section 416(i)(1)(A)(i)
concerning the definition of key employee in a top-heavy
plan is set at $180,000 for 2019; the level for 2017 and
2018 was $175,000.
catch-up contribution limit for employees aged 50 and over
who participate in 401(k), 403(b) most 457 plans, and the
federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan is $6,000, which
was also the 2018 level.
limit for an individual making qualified retirement
contributions is $6,000; the limit for 2018 and 2017 was
dollar limitation under Code Section 414(v)(2)(B)(i) for
catch-up contributions to an applicable employer is $6,000,
which was also the level for 2018 and 2017. The dollar
limitation under Code Section 414(v)(2)(B)(ii) for catch-up
contributions to an applicable employer plan described in
Code Section 401(k)(11) or Code Section 408(p) for
individuals aged 50 or over is $3,000, which was also the
level for 2018 and 2017.
limitation under Code Section 408(p)(2)(E) regarding SIMPLE
retirement accounts for 2019 is $13,000, up from $12,500 in
annual compensation limit under Code Sections 401(a)(17),
404(l), 408(k)(3)(C), and 408(k)(6)(D)(ii) is $280,000; the
2018 level was $275,000, and the level 2017 was $270,000.
limitation used in the definition of a highly compensated
employee under Code Section 414(q)(1)(B) for 2019 is
$125,000; for 2018 and 2017 it was $120,000.
annual compensation limitation under Section 401(a)(17) for
eligible participants in certain governmental plans that,
under the plan as in effect on July 1, 1993, allowed cost of
living adjustments to the compensation limitation under the
plan under Code Section 401(a)(17) to be taken into account,
is $415,000; it was $405,000 in 2018 and $400,000 in 2017.
compensation amount under Code Section 408(k)(2)(C)
regarding simplified employee pensions (SEPs) is $600, which
was also the 2018 level.
compensation amount under Treas. Reg. §1.61 21(f)(5)(i)
concerning the definition of “control employee” for fringe
benefit valuation is $110,000 for 2019, which was also the
level in 2018; it was $105,000 in 2017. The compensation
amount under Treas. Reg. §1.61 21(f)(5)(iii) is $225,000; it
was $220,000 in 2018 and $215,000 in 2017.