LIFE EXPECTANCY TABLES
Department of Health and Human Resources, 1996
Indicator 12: Life Expectancy
|TABLE 12A: LIFE EXPECTANCY BY AGE GROUP AND SEX, IN YEARS, 1900 TO 1997|
|LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH|
|LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 65|
|LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 85|
|Note: The estimates for
decennial years are based on decennial census data and deaths for a
three-year period around the census year. Life expectancy estimates for
years prior to 1930 are based on the death registration area only. The
death registration area increased from 10 states and the District of
Columbia in 1900 to the coterminous United States in 1933.
Reference population: These data refer to the resident population.
Source: National Vital Statistics System.
|TABLE 12B: LIFE EXPECTANCY BY AGE GROUP AND RACE, IN YEARS, 1997|
|LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH||77.1||71.1|
|LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 65||17.8||16.1|
|LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 85||6.2||6.4|
|Reference population: These data
refer to the resident population.
Source: National Vital Statistics System.
|TABLE 13A: DEATH RATES FOR SELECTED LEADING CAUSES OF DEATH AMONG PERSONS AGE 65 OR OLDER, 1980 TO 1997 (PER 100,000)|
|HEART DISEASE||CANCER||STROKE||CRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASES||PNEUMONIA & INFLUENZA||DIABETES|
are age-adjusted using the 2000 standard population.
Reference population: These data refer to the resident population.
Source: National Vital Statistics System.
OLDER: (1999) ( U.S. Bureau of the Census, Americans) The 50-59 age bracket will increase by 50% by the year 2006, and the country's fifty something population will expand to about 38 million by that year. The bureau further projected that by the year 2020, eight states, including: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Washington, Georgia, Alaska and California, will double their older populations. And in the next 20 years, the bureau reported, America will see a 76% increase in its 65 and older population as baby boomers reach their retirement years.
LIFE EXPECTANCY: (1999) In 1900, the life expectancy was 47 years of age. Only one person in 25 had then survived to age 60. Women lived shorter lives due to childbirth.
In the 1990s, the population growth rate for senior males is outstripping that of senior females, according to Census Bureau data. The male population over the age of 65 increased 11% between 1990 and 1996, while the female population increased 7.5%. During the same time period, the number of men in the age group over 85 rose 27 %, compared with 24 % for women. The ratio of women to men in the age group over 85 narrowed from 3.1:1.9 to 3.1:1.95. Women still dominate the population over 65, but the gap is beginning to narrow. In 1990, women accounted for 60 % of the population over 65; by 1996 that share had declined to 59 %, a notable change in a population of this size over this short period. The increasing number of men in the seniors' housing market could affect developers significantly, particularly in the amenities sought. An increased availability of health care for older Americans through the emergence of Medicare is cited as one factor in the increasing longevity of men, as is a decline in cigarette smoking among older males. (Housing the Elderly Report, April 1998)
OLD- AND GETTING OLDER: (1999) World Population: The global average for life expectancy had increased from 45 to 63 years from the1950's. However, 10% of the population is elderly- over 60 years of age. By 2050, it will increase to 20%.
The majority of people 60 and older, 55%, are women.
Among those 80 or older, 65 percent are women. Japanese women now have a life expectancy of 83, highest in the world. Nine million of the 43 million Americans 60 and older live alone and 80% are women.
Striking differences exist between regions with the elderly: one of five Europeans, for example, is 60 or older, compared to one of 20 Africans. By 2020, 46 percent of women 80 and older will live in Asia.
The American Association for Retired Persons said the Internet has been a boon to the elderly, with 47 percent of all online consumers over 50 and seniors more likely to contact family and others in the cyberspace community, thus reducing any feelings of isolation.
WOMEN AND LIFETIME: (1999) Why women live longer: a doctor at Ball State University indicated that "flexibility, resiliency and connections protect women against early death while men are more often wiped out by their own rigidity, aggression and denial of feelings." The life expectancy for men is now 72 years of age while women live in average of 78.8 years. Men smoke more cigarettes and consume more alcohol. They are three times is likely as women to die from accidents and four times more likely to be homicide victims. And as I a stated previously, white men have the higher suicide rates in the country once they get older than age 65. Many of these men have been insulated from the real world due to their positions of power in a corporation. However, once they retire, there entire powerbase may be gone (if there really ever was one). And they cannot boss their wives around since they have tended to develop more independency as they have gotten older.
In 1900, life expectancy for men was 49.7 years and for women 50.9 years. But by the middle of the century, men could now be expected to live to 65.6 years of age and 71.7 years for women. The increase for women, according to Dr. Crose, was due to women getting into holistic health and balancing their lives while men stayed in the "same old macho" roles. She also noted that while women do suffer more ailments and depression earlier in life, they use such adversity's to build into strength that they use later in life. A most interesting comment was the fact that women tend to be interested in more things and have a variety of emotions where men tend to express only two emotions: they are either fine or mad.
Gail Sheehy also commented about the difficulties of men as they get older. While men chuckle about menopause for women, it appears that men are "much more uncertain about the threat of aging than women. And the basis seems to be the threat of losing their potency in all the areas of their lives."
She noted that men should take a long vacation to review their lives and what they would like to change in the second half of life.
LONGEVITY: (Met Life 1999) "In 1997 life expectancy for all persons combined rose to a new record high of 76.4 years. Additionally, average future lifetime for newborn girls and boys also established new peaks-79.3 years and 73.4 years, respectively. For girls the 1997 value surpassed the previous high of 79.1 years recorded in 1992 and 1996 while for boys new peaks have been consecutively recorded since 1994. Last year's longevity enhancements among men were larger than those for women-continuing the trend of the past few years.
Newborn girls could still anticipate living 5.9 years longer than boys-the gap was 6.0 years in 1996 and 7.0 years in 1989-91. Current projections indicate that the disparity between the genders in average future lifetime may decline to 4.6 years by the year 2050. Also worthy of note is the apparent narrowing of the gap in longevity by race. In 1996 newborn white boys could expect to outlive nonwhite newborn boys by 5.0 years compared with 5.7 years in 1989-91; among girls the disparity diminished from 4.1 years in 1989-91 to 3.6 years in 1996."
LIVING LONGER- (1999) In ancient Greece, for example, life expectancy at birth was 20. When the Declaration of Independence was signed, life expectancy was still just 23; the median age was 16. Even as recently as 1900, most Americans died by age 47. In 1870, only 2.5% of all Americans made it to age 65. By 1990, that percentage had increased five-fold to 12.7%. Today, 31 million people are over 65 -- and the figures continue to grow, bolstered by advances in medicine and public health.
What are the odds of surviving?
U.S. Census Bureau, April 1996
Five-Year Survival Rates by Age and Sex, for the Resident Population,
1995 to 2015: Middle Mortality Assumption
(Cohort survival rates are based on projections of population in 5 year
age groups, based on the Method of Demographic Analysis, and assume no
net migration. These rates reflect survival rates by single year of
age and the age distribution within each age group.)
Cohort survival rates
1995 to 2000 to 2005 to 2010 to
Initial age Terminal age 2000 2005 2010 2015
Births........Under 5........ 0.992072 0.992719 0.993336 0.993908
Under 5.......5 to 9......... 0.998449 0.998561 0.998667 0.998772
5 to 9........10 to 14....... 0.999142 0.999207 0.999274 0.999341
10 to 14......15 to 19....... 0.996582 0.996752 0.996852 0.996923
15 to 19......20 to 24....... 0.990289 0.990876 0.991276 0.991569
20 to 24......25 to 29....... 0.995960 0.995982 0.996122 0.996342
25 to 29......30 to 34....... 0.993273 0.992581 0.992610 0.992890
30 to 34......35 to 39....... 0.991106 0.990030 0.989750 0.990161
35 to 39......40 to 44....... 0.988599 0.987458 0.987378 0.987902
40 to 44......45 to 49....... 0.984935 0.984400 0.984651 0.985539
45 to 49......50 to 54....... 0.978987 0.979541 0.980583 0.981945
50 to 54......55 to 59....... 0.968263 0.970129 0.971795 0.973655
55 to 59......60 to 64....... 0.948702 0.951838 0.954769 0.957208
60 to 64......65 to 69....... 0.918789 0.923377 0.927748 0.931705
65 to 69......70 to 74....... 0.881763 0.887422 0.893418 0.899095
70 to 74......75 to 79....... 0.827120 0.834602 0.841668 0.849306
75 to 79......80 to 84....... 0.746711 0.755876 0.765260 0.774255
80 to 84......85 to 89....... 0.638373 0.649110 0.660566 0.672561
85 to 89......90 to 94....... 0.504450 0.520153 0.534485 0.549834
90 to 94......95 to 99....... 0.434950 0.466784 0.491389 0.519664
95 and over...100 and over... 0.226695 0.239185 0.249664 0.260761
80 and over...85 and over.... 0.547183 0.555002 0.564485 0.569495
Cohort survival rates
1995 to 2000 to 2005 to 2010 to
Initial age Terminal age 2000 2005 2010 2015
Births........Under 5........ 0.991029 0.991799 0.992528 0.993204
Under 5.......5 to 9......... 0.998284 0.998421 0.998548 0.998673
5 to 9........10 to 14....... 0.999020 0.999097 0.999176 0.999253
10 to 14......15 to 19....... 0.994939 0.995153 0.995255 0.995311
15 to 19......20 to 24....... 0.984349 0.985290 0.985893 0.986304
20 to 24......25 to 29....... 0.994509 0.994529 0.994713 0.995021
25 to 29......30 to 34....... 0.990283 0.989111 0.989107 0.989514
30 to 34......35 to 39....... 0.987322 0.985411 0.984868 0.985439
35 to 39......40 to 44....... 0.984127 0.981902 0.981475 0.982156
40 to 44......45 to 49....... 0.979805 0.978432 0.978454 0.979556
45 to 49......50 to 54....... 0.973313 0.973698 0.974957 0.976805
50 to 54......55 to 59....... 0.960641 0.963184 0.965622 0.968388
55 to 59......60 to 64....... 0.936597 0.941406 0.945943 0.949888
60 to 64......65 to 69....... 0.899867 0.907817 0.915144 0.921780
65 to 69......70 to 74....... 0.854231 0.865135 0.875965 0.885895
70 to 74......75 to 79....... 0.785012 0.798333 0.810630 0.823259
75 to 79......80 to 84....... 0.684922 0.698163 0.711786 0.724741
80 to 84......85 to 89....... 0.560197 0.572500 0.585381 0.599385
85 to 89......90 to 94....... 0.426313 0.440636 0.454257 0.469634
90 to 94......95 to 99....... 0.349801 0.369966 0.384045 0.400173
95 and over...100 and over... 0.185287 0.190554 0.193462 0.196053
80 and over...85 and over.... 0.488976 0.498312 0.508221 0.514424
Cohort survival rates
1995 to 2000 to 2005 to 2010 to
Initial age Terminal age 2000 2005 2010 2015
Births........Under 5........ 0.993164 0.993682 0.994182 0.994645
Under 5.......5 to 9......... 0.998622 0.998708 0.998791 0.998875
5 to 9........10 to 14....... 0.999270 0.999321 0.999377 0.999432
10 to 14......15 to 19....... 0.998303 0.998426 0.998521 0.998607
15 to 19......20 to 24....... 0.996493 0.996704 0.996893 0.997056
20 to 24......25 to 29....... 0.997464 0.997481 0.997575 0.997705
25 to 29......30 to 34....... 0.996375 0.996165 0.996213 0.996361
30 to 34......35 to 39....... 0.995024 0.994795 0.994755 0.994983
35 to 39......40 to 44....... 0.993177 0.993168 0.993410 0.993735
40 to 44......45 to 49....... 0.990092 0.990455 0.990947 0.991579
45 to 49......50 to 54....... 0.984612 0.985353 0.986221 0.987102
50 to 54......55 to 59....... 0.975703 0.976936 0.977863 0.978874
55 to 59......60 to 64....... 0.960272 0.961862 0.963298 0.964314
60 to 64......65 to 69....... 0.936197 0.937883 0.939603 0.941123
65 to 69......70 to 74....... 0.905493 0.907130 0.909168 0.911186
70 to 74......75 to 79....... 0.860207 0.864093 0.867843 0.871952
75 to 79......80 to 84....... 0.789186 0.797261 0.805430 0.813260
80 to 84......85 to 89....... 0.681708 0.694815 0.707777 0.721140
85 to 89......90 to 94....... 0.537671 0.556376 0.573923 0.591486
90 to 94......95 to 99....... 0.462403 0.499421 0.530117 0.566154
95 and over...100 and over... 0.236645 0.251044 0.263701 0.277672
80 and over...85 and over.... 0.574389 0.583036 0.593794 0.599359
Life Expectancy on the rise: (2000)"Human lifespan increased enormously in the 20th century. Researchers examined mortality over five decades in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). In every country over this period, mortality at each age has declined exponentially at a roughly constant rate. Forecasts of life expectancy are substantially larger than in existing official forecasts. In terms of the costs of aging, researchers forecast values of the dependency ratio (that is, the ratio of people over 65 to working people) in 2050 that are between 6% (UK) and 40% (Japan) higher than official forecasts."
This could make a real mess of annuities if it is shown that the purchasers are living much longer (annuity purchasers tend to) and thereby reduce insurance company profits. Also it can mess up long term care policies. You may not need the care as soon, but you may need MORE of it in the later stages of life. Are there sufficient premiums to pay for the higher level of care???
And I am also wondering what the much higher levels of obesity will do to both mortality and morbidity. Since it is a more likely occurrence for the poor who don't buy life or long term care insurance anyway, maybe the issue- at that level- is moot. But both issues have a severe impact on health insurance along with Medicare and Medicaid.
TABLE 1D: PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION AGE 65 AND OLDER, BY STATE, 2000
RANKED BY PERCENTAGE
|DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA||13.2||CONNECTICUT||14.0|
|MASSACHUSETTS||13.6||DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA||13.2|
|NEW JERSEY||13.3||SOUTH CAROLINA||12.4|
|SOUTH DAKOTA||14.2||NEW HAMPSHIRE||11.6|
|Note: Data are middle–series
projections of the population.
Reference population: These data refer to the resident population.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections for States by Selected Age Groups and Sex: 1995 to 2025, available online at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.html (accessed April 7, 2000).
LIVING: (2000) During the twentieth century the 17 year survival rate of 50-64 year old men rose by 24 percentage points. The author examines waiting time until death from all natural causes and from all chronic, all acute, respiratory, stomach, infectious, all heart, ischemic, and myocarditis disease among Union Army veterans first observed in 1900. The effect of such specific early life infections as stomach ailments, rheumatic fever, syphilis, measles, respiratory infections, malaria, diarrhea, and tuberculosis on older age mortality depended upon the cause of death that was being investigated but all of these infections reduced cause-specific longevity. Men who grew up in a large city faced an elevated mortality risk from all causes of death controlling for later residence. The immediate effect of reduced infectious disease rates and reduced mortality from acute disease accounts for 62 percent of the twentieth century increase in survival rates and the long-run effect of reduced early life infectious disease rates accounts for 12 percent of the increase. The findings imply that although the current effects of improved public health and medical care are larger than the cohort effects, cost-benefit analyses and forecasts of future mortality still need to account for long-run effects; that mortality in populations in which infectious, respiratory, and parasitic deaths are common is best described by a competing risks model; and, that the urbanization that accompanied early industrialization was extremely costly.
Worldwide Life Expectancy (http://www.geography.about.com)
Lifetime: (2001)Blacks have a lifetime of 69 years while whites have 75 years. Heart disease and cancer are the major differences. Homicide is the next major cause.
Probability of Living to a Certain Age (2001)
Male, Nonsmoker probability
Male Smoker Probability
Living: (2001) Life expectancy climbed to a record high of 76.9 years in 2000, an increase of a few months from 1999’s 76.7 years. The infant mortality rate also declined to the lowest levels ever, to 6.9 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000, down by 0.2 deaths from 1999. American males born in 2000 now enjoy an average life expectancy of 74.1 years, up 0.2 years from 1999. Females have an average life expectancy of 79.5 years, up 0.1 years. Women can still expect to live longer than men on average, though the gap in life expectancy continued a years-long narrowing trend last year. A 7-year difference between the sexes recorded in 1990 was down to 5.5 years last year. Significant racial differences remain, however. Age-adjusted mortality continued to fall for heart disease and cancer--the top two causes of death--as well as several other leading causes, including suicide, homicide, accidents, stroke, diabetes, chronic lower respiratory disease, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. However, mortality for diseases that disproportionately strike the elderly, such as Alzheimer’s and pneumonitis, increased.
Getting Older: Growth in World’s Elderly Population Unprecedented (United States Census Bureau 2002)pdf
The world's population age 65 and older is growing by an unprecedented 800,000 people a month, according to a report issued December 13 by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Institute on Aging. The report, "An Aging World: 2001," predicts that this phenomenon of global aging will continue well into the 21st century, with the numbers and proportions of older people continuing to rise in both developed and developing worlds. The pace of population aging, the report found, varies widely among countries. Generally, developing countries are aging faster than more developed ones. Demographers estimated that more than three-quarters of the world's net gain of older people from 1999 to 2000 occurred in still-developing countries. The ratio of older people to total population differs widely among countries, too. The United States was 32nd on a list ranking countries with high proportions of people age 65 and older. Italy replaced Sweden as the world's oldest country in 2000, with 18 percent of Italians having attained age 65.
OLD: (United Nations Population Division 2002) The number of people 60 or older will grow to nearly 2 billion in 2050, for the first time in recorded history outnumbering those who are younger than 15, a trend that will have an impact on economic growth, investment strategies, tax policy and elections around the world. The report said the elderly are the world's fastest growing population segment. They now number 629 million, or about one out of every 10 people. While those 80 and older make up 12% of people over 60, they will comprise 19% in 2050, it estimated. The number of centenarians is projected to increase 15-fold over the same period, to 3.2 million in 48 years from about 210,000 today.
Life Expectancy in 51 Nations to Decline Due to AIDS, U.S. Census Bureau Report States
Longevity: (2002) Heart disease remains the nation's number-one killer, claiming the lives of 725,000 Americans in 1999. The figure is down slightly from 20 years ago. Meanwhile, deaths from cancer increased by 32% between 1980 and 1999, reaching nearly 550,000 in that year.
Infant mortality rates remained at 7.2 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 1998, the last year for which data were available. The figure was unchanged from the previous year but is the lowest of the 20th century. The US ranks 28th in the world in infant mortality, down from 12th in 1960. Hong Kong was ranked first, with an overall infant mortality rate of 3.2 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Officials said that they were encouraged by continued improvements in life expectancy, a crude measure of Americans' overall health. But along with the improvements come challenges. The number of Americans over 65 has nearly tripled since 1950, now comprising 13% of the US population. In 1950, seniors accounted for just 8% of the population. "The aging of the population is one of the great challenges the country will face
spent $1.3 trillion on healthcare in 1999, a figure that is expected to rise as the population ages and requires more care. The US already spends 13.1% of its gross domestic product on healthcare, far more than any other nation, according to the report. More than 40 million Americans were without any form of health insurance in 2000.
Officials also remain concerned about exploding rates of obesity among Americans. As many as 61% of Americans are now considered overweight or obese, including 13% to 14% of children. The percentage of overweight children and adolescents has nearly tripled since the 1960s. Experts are beginning to see the effects of obesity on the nation's health. Deaths from diabetes, a leading consequence of obesity, doubled between 1980 and 1999
Dying- (USA Today 2002) With better medical care and a drop in smoking rates, death rates for heart disease have been cut in more than half, and they have declined even more dramatically for stroke and other cerebrovascular disease.
Death rates from injuries, particularly motor vehicle crashes, have also fallen since about 1970, with safer cars on the road and more people wearing seat belts.
It's not all good news. Death rates for diabetes, along with the number of cases, are climbing, largely the result of a sharp increase in obesity.
The average baby born in 1900 could expect to live 47.3 years and that gauge has been climbing ever since. By 1950, life expectancy had risen to 68.2, and it reached 76.9 in 2000.
Throughout the century, women and whites have lived longer, but those gaps are closing, the report shows.
In 1950, whites lived 8.3 years longer than blacks. By 2000, that gap was 5.6 years.
For gender, the gap was at its peak in 1970, when women lived 7.6 years longer than men. By 2000, the gap was 5.4 years.
The report, produced by the National Center for Health Statistics, found drops in death at every stage of life and for many diseases. Specifically:
Infant mortality: The portion of babies dying before their first birthday was at a record low in 2000, 6.9 per 1,000 live births. That rate has fallen 75% since 1950.
Young deaths: Mortality among children and young adults, between 12 months and 24 years, declined by more than half since 1950. Researchers credited drops in death rates in accidents, cancer, heart disease and infectious diseases. Homicide and suicide rates generally increased over the half century, though they have been falling since the mid-1990s.
Adults: Death among adults age 25 to 44 declined by more than 40% between 1950 and 1999. During the mid-1990s, HIV was the leading cause of death for this age group, but these rates have fallen significantly.
Older adults: Mortality among adults age 45 to 64 fell by nearly 50%, including drops in heart disease, stroke and injury. Cancer is the leading cause of death in this group, and those death rates rose slowly through the 1980s and then began to decline.
Heart disease: Much of the improvement in life expectancy is traced to falling heart disease rates. In 1950, just over 585 people in the United States developed heart disease for every 100,000. By 1999, that had been more than cut in half, falling to just under 268 people per 100,000.
Stroke: In 1950, nearly 181 of every 100,000 people died of stroke and other cerebrovascular disease. By 1999, it was just 62 per 100,000.
The report, which also examines trends in the use of hospitals, found fewer people being admitted and shorter stays for those who do go in. It found a sharp drop in use of home health care, a reaction to new Medicare payment restrictions.
Long time: (2003) approximately 40% of individuals currently age 65 will live to be age 90. The results also point out that of married couples currently age 65, there is a 63% chance that at least one spouse will live to age 90.
Life expectancy for the fatties. People who were overweight at age 40 really shorten their lifetimes by about 3 years on average. For those who were obese, the losses were 7.1 years for women and 5.4 years for men. It's about the same as seen for smokers. Also, they will die badly.
Longevity News and Trends in the U.S. and abroad
More and more (2003) The Census Bureau notes that there are 284.8 million Americans. There re about 34.8 million over age 65. Older women outnumber men 20.7 to 14.6 million.
Japan and old: (WSJ 2003) Japan is wrestling with an unprecedented demographic time bomb. With the average woman bearing 1.33 children, the government projects Japan's population will start declining in three years. By around 2007, the proportion of the population over 65 will have jumped to 20% from 10% in just 21 years, a rate of graying that's nearly twice as fast as any other major nation.
Population pressures will continue to sap the country even if it shakes off its deep banking crisis and a crippling bout of price deflation.
With the world's longest life expectancy -- 85 for women, 78 for men -- Japan's society is aging faster than any other now. But by midcentury, the populations of Italy and Russia are expected to have declined even more drastically. Even China, the world's emerging economic powerhouse and most populous nation, will age rapidly starting in 2010, with the elderly making up 22.7% of the population by 2050, up from 6.9% now, according to the United Nations Population Division.
Such jumps in age, coupled with declines in fertility in virtually every country, have led at least one expert to predict that, after zooming ahead in the next 50 years, the world's population could begin to decline. That marks a reversal of long-held predictions of unsustainable population explosions.
In 2002 there were 3.6 Japanese between 20 and 64 to support each person over age 65. By 2025, when he turns 48, the ratio will fall to just 1.9, and it will still be declining. Among self-employed Japanese, who must make their own pension payments, 29% didn't pay their pension premiums in 2001, compared with just 17% in 1996. Among those aged 20 to 24, 46% didn't pay up. Some economists fear that any further rise in pension-dodging might trigger a collapse in the system unless the government gets more aggressive about collection.
Some economists suggest raising the bar on the definition of "old." If companies extend the mandatory retirement age from the current norm of 60 to 70 later this decade and 75 around 2020, the ratio of pensioners to working-age Japanese would remain below a manageable 20%
Longevity: (2003) Children born in 1902 could expect to live to only 47.3 years. Fifty years later, that number had expanded to 68.2 years. The U.S. Census Bureau estimate for those born in 2050 is 83.9 years. As an indication of how much further we could go, the 2050 estimate for Japan is 90.9 years.
In the U.S., there are currently 35 million people over 65 years old, and as the Baby Boomers, the largest segment of the population, reach that age, by 2030 it is expected that 70 million Americans will be 65 or older.
there are currently some 76,000 Americans over the age of 100. The Census Bureau estimates that the number of centenarians will increase to 324,000 by the year 2030, and swell to the astounding figure of 834,000 by the year 2050
Life and Death. (2003) Life expectancy went up for men from 73.4 years to 74.4 and for women from 79.7 to 79.8. The national death rate dropped to 855 deaths per 100,000 in 2001.
Deaths from HIV and AIDS dropped about 4%. Death from heart disease and cancer dropped 4% and 2% respectively. Strokes dropped 5%. The biggest drop was 7% for flue and pneumonia
The mortality for the general population has been improving about 1% per year for a long time. U.S residents that own life insurance have longer life expectancies than those that do not have life insurance.
The mortality rate for annuity holders age 65 to 75 is about half that of the general population.
The rate of mortality improvement for those over age 70 is slowing whole the rate is improving for those under age 40.
Mortality rates for women under age 40 is improving about 2% per year though deteriorating for those over age 70.
In the Journal of Insurance Medicine, obesity was the leading effect on mortality for middle age non smoking males.
Longevity and Quality of Life: Opportunities and Challenges (2003)The outcome of an international conference held in Paris in 1999, Longevity and Quality of Life encompasses a rich diversity of disciplines and addresses a number of important questions: Will longer lives be productive or will they be lives of extended suffering? Will the cost of caring for the old take away resources from the young? How will the poorest countries cope?
Lifetime: According to the Centers for Disease Control, average life expectancy for men in 2000 was 74 years, versus 70 years in 1980. The average life expectancy for women in 2000 was 79 years, versus 77 years in 1980.
Dying The risk of dying is one in 106.
Most homeowners have a 1 in 88 chance of having property damage to their home.
Most automobile owners have a one in 47 chance of being in an accident.
About one in five has a disability and one in 10 have a serious disability.
Lifetime: New Predictions
Current Age Male Female
0 76 80
30 77 81
50 78 82
60 80 83
65 81 85
Current Age Male Female
0 70 75
30 72 77
50 74 79
60 77 80
65 78 81
Life expectancy: (2003) According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, in 2000, the average life expectancy for American males was 74, up four years from 1980 (when the previous tables were written). For American females, the average life expectancy in 2000 was 79 years, up two years from the 1980 tables. In addition, the annual improvement in male mortality of the general U.S. population has improved by 2 percent in the age group 55-59, and has improved by 1.2 percent for females of the same age group.
Knowledge?: A 2003 GE study noted Only 11% knew the average life expectancy for someone 65 years old today is over age 85; 57% of survey respondents over the age of 55 say they have no idea how they're going to fund their retirement; 31% save 5% or less from each paycheck; 19% know someone who has outlived their retirement or pension; 20% of all Americans have used their savings to get by this year; and only 31% think they will have enough money for retirement.
Living longer: “An individual who reaches age 65 has a life expectancy of age 85. What are the chances he or she will live beyond that age?”
Longevity: (2003) life expectancy at birth continues to rise, reaching a new record high of 77.2 years in 2001, up nearly 2 years since 1990. Girls born in the United States in 2001 can expect to live 79.8 years, an increase of one year from 1990. The life expectancy for boys born in 2001 was 74.4 years, up two years since 1990.
Longevity: based on actuarial tables, a woman who makes it to age 60 has an average life expectancy of 23 years. But that doesn't mean this woman is sure to die at 83.
What it means is that the woman has a 50-50 chance of living beyond 83, as well as a 50 percent chance of dying before that age.
Live long and Prosper: A 65-year-old man, for example, has about a 30 percent chance of living to 90 and a 4 percent or so chance of cracking the century mark.
Live long and prosper: For those individuals who live to age 65, more than half, 53%, of single females and 41% of single males will still be alive at age 85. For married couples, 72% will have at least one spouse alive at age 85.
Longevity and Underwriting: The Centenarian Markers
Living and dying: (2004) It is estimated that in 2001, 72 million of the 6.1 billion inhabitants of the world are 80 years or older (United Nations, 2001). The population of the oldest-old (e.g. those 80 years and older) constitutes therefore 1.2 per cent of the world’s population but, although it is a small fraction of the whole, it is the fastest growing segment of the population. Thus, whereas the world population is expected to increase by about 50 per cent and to reach 9.3 billion by 2050, the number of people aged 80 years or older is expected to increase more than five-fold, to reach 379 million in 2050 (Figure 1). Most of the growth of the oldest-old population will occur in the developing world where their numbers are expected to increase almost eight-fold, from 34 million in 2001 to 266 million in 2050. In the more developed countries, the number of oldest-old will likely triple, passing from 38 million to 113 million. By 2050, therefore, the majority of the oldest-old will be living in the less developed regions of the world. Furthermore, because life expectancy continues to increase, not only are an increasing number of people surviving to very old ages but also deaths to the oldest-old are accounting for an increasing proportion of all deaths. Thus, at the global level, 18 out of every 100 deaths expected in 2000-2005 will be to persons aged 80 years or older (i.e., 10 million out of the expected 55 million deaths). In the more developed regions, the proportion of deaths to persons aged 80 or over is expected to be much higher¾ 42 per cent¾and those proportions are expected to keep on rising.
Life expectancy: (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC 2004) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), "Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2002) Life expectancy in the United States was the highest ever in 2002, but infant mortality increased from a rate of 6.8 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 2001 to a rate of 7.0 per 1,000 births in 2002, the first year since 1958 that the rate has not declined or remained unchanged.
life expectancy in the United States reached a new high of 77.4 years, up from 77.2 in 2001. Life expectancy increased for both men and women, and for African Americans and whites.
Overall, death rates for the total U.S. population dropped in 2002. The national age-adjusted death rate decreased slightly from 855 deaths per 100,000 population in 2001 to 847 deaths per 100,000 in 2002. There were declines in mortality among most racial, ethnic, and gender groups except for American Indians (both males and females) and non-Hispanic white females, whose death rates remained unchanged from 2001.
Among the Nation’s leading causes of death, there were declines in mortality from heart disease (3 percent), stroke (nearly 3 percent), accidents/unintentional injuries (nearly 2 percent), and cancer (1 percent). The biggest decline in mortality among the leading cause of deaths was for homicides – down 17 percent. That number had increased sharply in 2001 due to the September 11th terrorist attacks. Excluding the September 11th deaths, the decrease from 2001 to 2002 would have been 3 percent, which still reflects a continuing downward trend in homicides that began in 1991.
Mortality rates increased for some leading causes of death, including Alzheimer’s disease (up 5.8 percent), influenza and pneumonia (up 3.2 percent), high blood pressure (up 2.9 percent), and septicemia or blood poisoning (up 2.6 percent).
Aging: (2004) The average Ancient Greek lived until age 18. The median life span of a Puritan was 33. In 1991, the average American life expectancy was about 72 years for men, 79 for women.
In 1994, about one in eight Americans was age 65 or older. By 2030, one in five Americans will be a senior citizen.
Immigrants who come to the United States live an average of three years longer than people born here. (NIH)
A growing body of evidence indicates the life span difference reflects both immigrants' innate vitality and their reluctance to embrace Americans' drive-thru, drive-everywhere mentality. They also smoke less.
The life expectancy deficit is true for all races but is most dramatic among blacks. Immigrant black men live nine years longer than black men born in the United States.
The records showed the average American-born black man could expect to reach 64, while a black man born overseas would likely live beyond 73 if he immigrated. In the case of an African-born man remaining in his homeland, he might well have died before his 50th birthday.
Obesity, too, is far more prevalent among American-born residents. Data from the mid-1990s showed that 22 percent of adult immigrants were obese, compared to 28 percent of U.S.-born adults. (Recent numbers suggest about 30 percent of all U.S. residents are obese.)
The smoking numbers were even more dramatic: 18 percent of immigrants smoked, compared to 26 percent of U.S.-born adults.
As they assimilate, however, many immigrants adopt bad health habits. Research suggest that, over time, immigrants behave like the American-born population — more smoke, drink and gain weight.
Census Bureau: (1995) The Census Bureau released a report “Global Population Profile: 2002,” which analyzes global population trends. The report highlights that the growth of the elderly population is projected to be faster than any other segment of the population in every region of the world. In 2002, the globe held 440 million people age 65 or over, approximately 7 percent of the total population. In the future, the size of the elderly population is projected to increase rapidly, almost doubling by 2020 and more than tripling by 2050. Similarly, the relative size of the elderly population is expected to grow to over 9 percent in 2020 and to almost 17 percent by 2050. This growth is due primarily to historical declines in fertility and the general aging of the population. The report also indicates that a number of African countries will experience levels of mortality during this decade that will lower the average life expectancy at birth to around 30 years by 2010, a level not seen since the beginning of the 20th century. Much of this decline in life expectancy is likely to result from AIDS mortality.
Ratio of Population Ages 20 to 64 to Population Ages 65 and Over
Life Expectancy of 65-Year-Olds
Longevity: (2004) A study the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences indicates that human lifespan took a dramatic leap about 32,000 years ago. The study believes that this increase contributed greatly to population expansion and advancements that enabled humans to thrive, as more information was able to be transmitted from one generation to another and social relationships were strengthened.
Aging workers: (NY Times 2004) As workers age, fewer new bodies are coming up the pipeline to replace them. According to projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the working-age population - adults 16 to 54 who are neither in the military nor in jail - will have grown by six million people from 2002 to 2012. By contrast, the 55-and-over age bracket will have expanded by 18 million.
The shift will only intensify in the years that follow. By 2030, people 55 and older will make up 37 percent of the adult population, up from 15 percent today.
Like it or not, to deal with the aging of America's labor force, workers will probably be made to work longer.
"Many businesses feel they have found solutions by sending jobs offshore or bringing immigrants to fill positions here,. "But the problem is much larger. Business is going to have to tap the older work force."
a 65-year-old is expected to live to 83. That is almost three years longer than the life expectancy of a 65-year-old in 1970. But the aging of the work force is not just about longer life spans. It has more to do with a steep decline in the nation's production of young people - a birth dearth.
The labor force started to swell in the second half of the 1960's, when the baby-boom generation began to come of age. But the boom was followed by a baby bust. The fertility rate dropped from 3.5 children per woman in the mid-1950's to about 2 in the 1970's. As a result, when the boomers start exiting the work force - as they will in droves starting around 2008 - they will leave a big demographic hole behind them.
Aging is not just an American issue. According to projections from the United Nations, the median age in Switzerland is 40, five years older than that of the United States. And by the time America's median age reaches 40, around midcentury, half of all Italians will be over 52.
The United States has staved off the national aging process mostly by drawing immigrants
A study by the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston found that new immigrants accounted for 47 percent of the increase in the labor force from 1990 to 2000.
Aging, meanwhile, will steadily worsen America's labor outlook. The participation rate of the general population in the work force climbed to 67.2 percent in 2000 from 59.2 percent in 1950. But projections from the Labor Department call for it to fall back to 62.3 percent by 2030.
As a result, the expansion of the labor force will slow, to just 0.6 percent a year over the first half of the 21st century, from 1.6 percent in the second half of the 20th. And the economy's dependency ratio, which measures the burden of retirees on workers, will narrow. In 2000, there were five people aged 20 to 64 for each person 65 or older. By 2030, the ratio will be less than 3 to 1.
In 1950, some 87 percent of men aged 55 to 64 and 46 percent of those over 65 were working. By 2000, the shares had dropped, to 67 percent for the younger group and 17 percent for the older one.
According to the 2004 Retirement Confidence Survey, barely 36 percent of workers are confident that they will have enough money to take care of basic expenses during retirement. And the share of workers who expect to retire before 65 has dropped to 37 percent from 49 percent a decade ago.
COMMISSIONERS 2001 STANDARD ORDINARY MORTALITY TABLE
MALE AND FEMALE
AGE LAST BIRTHDAY MALE 1000qx MALE LIFE EXPECTATION FEMALE 1000qx FEMALE LIFE EXPECTATION
0 0.72 75.67 0.42 79.87
1 0.46 74.73 0.31 78.90
2 0.33 73.76 0.23 77.93
3 0.24 72.79 0.20 76.95
4 0.21 71.81 0.19 75.96
5 0.22 70.82 0.18 74.98
6 0.22 69.84 0.19 73.99
7 0.22 68.85 0.21 73.00
8 0.22 67.87 0.21 72.02
9 0.23 66.88 0.21 71.03
10 0.24 65.90 0.22 70.05
11 0.28 64.91 0.25 69.06
12 0.34 63.93 0.27 68.08
13 0.40 62.95 0.31 67.10
14 0.52 61.98 0.34 66.12
15 0.66 61.01 0.36 65.14
16 0.78 60.05 0.39 64.17
17 0.89 59.10 0.41 63.19
18 0.95 58.15 0.44 62.22
19 0.98 57.21 0.46 61.25
20 1.00 56.26 0.47 60.27
21 1.01 55.32 0.49 59.30
22 1.02 54.37 0.50 58.33
23 1.04 53.43 0.51 57.36
24 1.06 52.48 0.53 56.39
25 1.09 51.54 0.55 55.42
26 1.14 50.60 0.58 54.45
27 1.17 49.65 0.61 53.48
28 1.16 48.71 0.64 52.51
29 1.15 47.77 0.67 51.55
30 1.14 46.82 0.70 50.58
31 1.13 45.88 0.75 49.62
32 1.14 44.93 0.79 48.65
33 1.16 43.98 0.85 47.69
34 1.19 43.03 0.92 46.73
35 1.24 42.08 1.00 45.78
36 1.31 41.14 1.07 44.82
37 1.39 40.19 1.14 43.87
38 1.49 39.25 1.20 42.92
39 1.59 38.30 1.26 41.97
40 1.72 37.36 1.34 41.03
41 1.87 36.43 1.43 40.08
42 2.05 35.50 1.53 39.14
43 2.27 34.57 1.65 38.20
44 2.52 33.65 1.79 37.26
AGE LAST BIRTHDAY MALE 1000qx MALE LIFE EXPECTATION FEMALE 1000qx FEMALE LIFE EXPECTATION
45 2.77 32.73 1.96 36.33
46 3.03 31.82 2.16 35.40
47 3.25 30.92 2.38 34.48
48 3.42 30.02 2.64 33.56
49 3.64 29.13 2.93 32.65
50 3.91 28.23 3.24 31.74
51 4.26 27.34 3.60 30.85
52 4.70 26.46 3.99 29.96
53 5.21 25.58 4.41 29.08
54 5.83 24.72 4.86 28.21
55 6.52 23.86 5.36 27.34
56 7.26 23.02 5.91 26.49
57 7.95 22.19 6.49 25.65
58 8.63 21.37 7.09 24.82
59 9.42 20.55 7.70 23.99
60 10.40 19.75 8.34 23.18
61 11.59 18.96 9.03 22.37
62 12.98 18.18 9.76 21.58
63 14.47 17.42 10.55 20.79
64 16.04 16.67 11.40 20.01
65 17.65 15.94 12.33 19.24
66 19.27 15.23 13.35 18.48
67 20.96 14.53 14.48 17.73
68 22.74 13.84 15.71 16.99
69 24.69 13.16 17.08 16.27
70 26.94 12.50 18.63 15.55
71 29.71 11.84 20.38 14.84
72 32.94 11.20 22.29 14.15
73 36.32 10.59 24.39 13.48
74 39.96 9.99 26.68 12.81
75 43.95 9.40 29.20 12.16
76 48.44 8.83 31.95 11.53
77 53.67 8.28 34.97 10.91
78 59.72 7.75 38.28 10.30
79 66.48 7.25 41.92 9.72
80 74.02 6.76 46.43 9.14
81 82.20 6.30 51.96 8.59
82 90.82 5.87 57.80 8.06
83 100.22 5.45 63.94 7.55
84 110.69 5.06 70.74 7.07
85 122.36 4.69 77.59 6.60
86 135.17 4.34 85.68 6.16
87 148.99 4.02 95.69 5.74
88 163.00 3.73 106.25 5.34
89 179.03 3.45 116.68 4.98
AGE LAST BIRTHDAY MALE 1000qx MALE LIFE EXPECTATION FEMALE 1000qx FEMALE LIFE EXPECTATION
90 194.28 3.20 124.22 4.64
91 209.27 2.98 131.53 4.29
92 224.94 2.76 143.72 3.94
93 241.46 2.56 160.21 3.61
94 258.86 2.38 180.90 3.29
95 276.12 2.21 203.48 3.02
96 292.95 2.06 225.69 2.79
97 310.86 1.91 240.07 2.61
98 329.95 1.77 247.79 2.43
99 350.32 1.64 263.98 2.23
100 369.76 1.53 285.02 2.03
101 386.96 1.42 307.89 1.84
102 405.25 1.32 333.06 1.66
103 424.70 1.23 360.71 1.49
104 445.35 1.13 390.86 1.33
105 467.29 1.04 422.72 1.19
106 490.57 0.95 455.33 1.05
107 515.28 0.86 488.48 0.93
108 541.49 0.78 522.20 0.82
109 569.27 0.70 557.04 0.72
110 598.70 0.62 591.96 0.63
This actually goes to age 120 but enough is enough.
LONGEVITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY: Major U.K. article (148 pages pdf) By R. C. Willets, A. P. Gallop, P. A. Leandro, J. L. C. Lu, A. S. Macdonald, K. A. Miller, S. J. Richards, N. Robjohns, J. P. Ryan and H. R. Waters [Presented to the Faculty of Actuaries, 15 March 2004, and to the Institute of Actuaries, 26 April 2004]
British health: Office for National Statistics. Probably very similar to the U.S. but I have not seen this study here.
Life expectancy in Great Britain increased between 1981 and 2001. Females born in 2001 can now expect to live an average of 80.4 years (versus 76.8 years in 1981) and males an average of 75.7 years (versus 70.9 years). Although women have also in the past had a longer life expectancy than men, the new data show that life expectancy is increasing at a faster rate for males than for females.
The researchers also looked at the quality of health in the extra years. Healthy life expectancy was quantified and defined as the expected years of life in good or fairly good health. In 2001 healthy life expectancy at birth was 67.0 years for males and 68.8 years for females. Although these values are slightly higher than for people born in 1981, healthy life expectancy has not been rising as fast as life expectancy.
People may be living longer, but the extra years are largely lived in poor health (defined as the difference between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy). In 1981, the expected time lived in poor health for males was 6.5 years; by 2001 this had risen to 8.7 years.
Women are even worse off, according to the data. Those born in 1981 could have expected to live in poor health for 10.1 years in 1981, but this rose to 11.6 years by 2001.
Life expectancy increase: Tables published by the government's National Center for Health Statistics show that life expectancy at birth was 47.3 years in 1900, rose to 68.2 by 1950 and reached 77.3 in 2002. The latest annual report of the Social Security trustees projects that life expectancy will increase just six years in the next seven decades, to 83 in 2075. A separate set of projections, by the Census Bureau, shows more rapid growth.
Social Security says male life expectancy at birth will be 81.2 years in 2075. The Census Bureau, using different methods and assumptions, says that level will be reached much earlier, in 2050.
Likewise, Social Security says female life expectancy will reach 85 years by 2075, while the Census Bureau says it will exceed 86 in 2050.
For the American population as a whole in the last century, most of the gains in life expectancy at birth occurred from 1900 to 1950. But most of the gains in life expectancy among people who had already reached age 65 were seen after 1950.
Lifetime: (2005) Sixty percent of women who reach 65 survive to 85, according to the actuarial academy, while only 47 percent of 65-year-old men reach that milestone.
Life Expectancy: (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2005) average life expectancy rose to 77.6 years in 2003 from 77.3 years in 2002.
Women still live longer on average than men. But the gender gap continued to narrow, to 5.3 years from the peak gap of 7.8 years in 1979.
In 2003, white women lived an average of 80.5 years, while black women lived an average of 76.1 years. White men lived an average of 75.4 years and black men lived an average of 69.2 years.
The death rate -- which has mostly been trending down since 1900 -- declined to a record low of 831.2 deaths per 100,000 people, 1.7% lower than 2002.
Death rates fell for eight of the 15 leading causes of death, with rates for the top two causes -- heart disease and cancer -- falling 3.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Deaths from heart disease and cancer account for more than half of U.S. deaths annually.
Death rates from stroke declined 4.6%, while deaths from flu and pneumonia fell a combined 3.1%. The CDC said a large decline in pneumonia deaths offset a 150% increase in influenza deaths in 2003. Alcohol-related deaths declined 4.3% and deaths by suicide fell 3.7%.
The death rate from HIV continued an eight-year decline, falling 4.1% in 2003. Deaths from homicide fell out of the top 15 causes of death in 2003 compared with 2002.
Deaths from Parkinson's disease continued a two-decade increase, rising by 3.4% in 2003 and ranking as the 14th-leading cause of deaths that year. Deaths from Alzheimer's disease increased 5.9% and were the eighth-leading cause of deaths, while kidney disease and hypertension deaths rose 5.7%.
The overall death rate from accidents, which ranked as the fifth-leading cause of death, fell 2.2%. Deaths from accidents in the workplace declined 13% in 2003 compared with 2002.
The infant-mortality rate stayed roughly the same at 6.9 deaths for every 1,000 live births in 2003 from 2002, the year which represented the first increase in the infant mortality rate in 44 years.
Living: Of men who are now 65,
28% will live to 90,
11% will live to 95;
2% to 100.
Of women who are now 65,
40% will live to 90;
19% to 95;
5% to 100.
Getting old: (2005) The United States is on the brink of a longevity revolution. By 2030, the number of older Americans will have more than doubled to 70 million, or one in every five Americans. The growing number and proportion of older adults places increasing demands on the public health system and on medical and social services.
Chronic diseases exact a particularly heavy health and economic burden on older adults due to associated long-term illness, diminished quality of life, and greatly increased health care costs. Although the risk of disease and disability clearly increases with advancing age, poor health is not an inevitable consequence of aging.
Much of the illness, disability, and death associated with chronic disease is avoidable through known prevention measures. Key measures include practicing a healthy lifestyle (e.g., regular physical activity, healthy eating, and avoiding tobacco use) and the use of early detection practices (e.g., screening for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers, diabetes and its complications, and depression).
Critical knowledge gaps exist for responding to the health needs of older adults. For chronic diseases and conditions such as Alzheimer's disease, arthritis, depression, psychiatric disorders, osteoporosis, Parkinson's disease, and urinary incontinence, much remains to be learned about their distribution in the population, associated risk factors, and effective measures to prevent or delay their onset.
How long will you live: (Michael D. Hurd 2005)Women between the ages of 70 and 74 said they believed they had a roughly even chance of living to 85. In fact, their odds were about 58 percent. By contrast, 85-year-old women said they had a 30 percent chance of reaching 100. Only about 7 percent of them would actually do so.
50% Life Expectancy Measured in Years
Mortality multiples Applied to 1975- 1980 Mortality Tables
|70||12.14||7.59||5.53||4.33||3.54||1.78||1.10||Less than 1.0|
|75||9.01||5.29||3.72||2.83||2.28||1.00||Less than 1.0||"|
|80||6.48||3.57||2.41||1.78||1.40||Less than 1.0||"||"|
85% Life Expectancy Measured in Years
|75||16.51||10.75||7.98||6.34||5.21||2.56||1.49||Less than 1.0|
|80||12.85||7.80||5.55||4.20||3.34||1.33||Less than 1.0||"|
Mean Weight and Height Among Adults Aged 20--74 Years, by Sex and Survey Period --- United States, 1960--2002 (CDC)
From the early 1960s to 2002, the mean weight for men and women aged 20--74 years increased 24 pounds, and the mean height increased approximately 1 inch. During 1999--2002, the mean weight of men aged >20 years was approximately 190 lbs. and the mean height was approximately 5 ft., 9 in.; among women, the mean weight was approximately 163 lbs. and the mean height was approximately 5 ft., 4 in.
HOW LONG WILL YOU LIVE? (2006)
Many people will exceed the average life expectancy for their age group. Here are your odds:
Male, 65 Living to 85 Living to 92
Female, 65 Living to 88 Living to 94
Couple, both 65 One will live to 92 One will live to 97
Source: American Society of Actuaries
a 65-year-old woman has a 31% chance of living to age 90—for a man, it’s 17% (2006)
Life expectancy (2006)
LONGEVITY CONTINUES TO RISE (2006) - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics reports that the life expectancy of Americans born in 2004 rose to 77.9 years from 77.5 years in 2003. The total number of deaths declined by almost 50,000, or 2.4%, from 2003 to 2004, the largest one-year drop in several decades. The last time the number of deaths fell instead of rose was in 1997, when there were 445 fewer deaths than in 1996. The gender gap is narrowing as well. Life expectancy for women is 80.4 years on average, up from 80.1 years in 2003. Men born in 2004 can expect to live 75.2 years, up from 74.8 years. The 5.2-year difference between the sexes was the smallest since 1946.
Too Big To Ignore: The Impact Of Obesity On Mortality Trends (2006) The rising prevalence of obesity runs counter to the overall decline in mortality rates seen in most developed nations over the past few decades. The possibility that the rate of mortality improvement could have been higher without the increase in obesity is too significant to ignore. The question is, can we gain back this lost mortality improvement?
Like the health effects on smoking, obesity usually stems from a choice about lifestyle. The fact that so many public spaces are now 'tobacco-free' zones is the result of education, persuasion and - in many cases - tough action. Tackling obesity likewise calls for a combined and determined effort from all parties: governments, the medical profession, food manufacturers and consumers need to be alert to this emerging risk and to play a role in confronting it. For life insurers - who are not immune to the effects of obesity - addressing the problem means keeping ratings and pricing up to date and in line with emerging experience.
Over the last 30 years or so, the prevalence of obesity has increased two to threefold in most developed countries. It affects nearly one in every three people in the United States, where it is expected to overtake smoking as the leading cause of preventable death. The epidemic is no longer confined to developed countries: in the developing world the prevalence is around 5%, and this is expected to increase in the future.
In adults, the prevalence of obesity is more acute in women than in men, and it is becoming more common in children and adolescents. If this trend is left unchecked, it will have negative consequences for adult health and mortality in the future. The problem is also more widespread amongst the lower socio-economic groups in the developed world.
Living Longer (USA 2007) Average premiums for individual life insurance have been falling about 5% a year since 2000, and they're expected to drop an additional 4% in 2007, according to the Insurance Information Institute. In 2007, a 40-year-old male non-smoker who buys a $500,000, 20-year term insurance policy will pay an annual premium of $615 if he qualifies for the "standard" rate, the institute estimates. If he qualifies for the "preferred" rate, which has more stringent health requirements, he'll pay $340
Mortality (Mercer 2007)
In the first half of the 20th century, to value pension liabilities and costs, actuaries used mortality tables that simply showed the probability of a person aged x dying before reaching age x+1. These calculations were based on the experience of a particular group of lives (for example, the general population, life office annuitants or pension fund members) at a specific point in time. As it became increasingly clear that this approach did not allow for improvements in mortality over time, actuaries began using projected mortality tables. These tables still show the probability that a person aged x will die before reaching age x+1, but they might be set at 80 percent of the corresponding probability in the base (unprojected) table to allow for future improvements. However, in recent years, actuaries have realized that despite their best efforts to accurately model future mortality, they have often understated mortality improvements, as experience has consistently turned out to be better than even the most optimistic projections.
The rates of mortality table (shown below) illustrates different ways in which actuaries construct sets of mortality rates. The rates of mortality circled in red are taken from a static or base table. The probability that a 55-year-old will die in the next year is 36 in 10,000, regardless of when he turns 55. The rates circled in green show the same base rates projected forwards five years, allowing for a small improvement each year. The probability, though now reduced to 28 in 10,000, is still assumed to apply regardless of when the person reaches age 55. The blue arrow shows a possible progression of generational rates. The probability is 36 in 10,000 for someone turning 55 in 2006, but only 30 in 10,000 for someone turning 55 in 2007, 26 in 10,000 for someone turning 55 in 2008.
Live and Die: (USA Today 2007) The following is a snapshot of the "eight Americas" and how life expectancy divides us:
• 1. 10.4 million Asians with a per capita income of $21,566 and an average life expectancy of 85.
• 2. 3.6 million whites in Minnesota, the Dakotas, Iowa, Montana and Nebraska, with a income of $17,758 and an average life expectancy of 79 .
• 3. 214 million middle Americans, with a per capita income of $24,640 and an average life expectancy of 78.
• 4. 16.6 million whites in Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley with an income of $16,390 and a life expectancy of 75.
• 5. 1 million Western Native Americans with a per capita income of $10,029 and life expectancy of 73.
• 6. 23.4 million black middle Americans with a per capita income of $15,412 and a life expectancy of 73.
• 7. 5.8 million southern low-income blacks with a per capita income of $10,463 and a life expectancy of 71.
• 8. 7.5 million high-risk urban blacks, living in counties with a homicide risk that tops the 95th percentile of U.S. counties, with a per capita income of $14,800 and a life expectancy of 71.
AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY, STATE BY STATE
Rank States Life expectancy(years)
1 Hawaii 80.0
2 Minnesota 78.8
3 Utah 78.7
4 Connecticut 78.7
5 Massachusetts 78.4
6 New Hampshire 78.3
7 Iowa 78.3
8 North Dakota 78.3
9 Rhode Island 78.3
10 California 78.2
11 Vermont 78.2
12 Colorado 78.2
13 Washington 78.2
14 Wisconsin 77.9
15 Idaho 77.9
16 Nebraska 77.8
17 Oregon 77.8
18 South Dakota 77.7
19 New York 77.7
20 Maine 77.6
21 Florida 77.5
22 Arizona 77.5
23 New Jersey 77.5
24 Kansas 77.3
25 Montana 77.2
26 Alaska 77.1
27 New Mexico 77.0
28 Virginia 76.8
29 Delaware 76.8
30 Texas 76.7
31 Pennsylvania 76.7
32 Wyoming 76.7
33 Illinois 76.4
34 Michigan 76.3
35 Maryland 76.3
36 Ohio 76.2
37 Indiana 76.1
38 Missouri 75.9
39 Nevada 75.8
40 North Carolina 75.8
41 Georgia 75.3
42 Kentucky 75.2
43 Arkansas 75.2
44 Oklahoma 75.2
45 Tennessee 75.1
46 West Virginia 75.1
47 South Carolina 74.8
48 Alabama 74.4
49 Louisiana 74.2
50 Mississippi 73.6
51 District of Columbia 72.0
Among long-lived people 15 to 44, the death toll from chronic disease was as low as among the Japanese. The profile for the group with the shortest life span resembles Russia.
Income isn't the key to a longer life span. This group is made up of 3.6 million low-income whites living in Minnesota, the Dakotas, Iowa, Montana and Nebraska, with an average life expectancy of 79. "White populations living below the median incomes in northern states have the best level of health among whites.
much of the variation depends on such individual factors as diet, exercise and smoking, not health care. "Yet we spend much of our attention and 16% of our national income on health care,". "There's no way that differences in the quality of health care can explain 20-year gaps in life expectancy."
Old- (2007) At present 12% of the population is over 65. There are 5 people between 20 & 64 for each person 65 or older. According to the Trustees of Social Security in 2030 folks over 65 will make up 19% of the population and the ratio of those 20-64 to those 65 and over will fall to 3:1.
Reduced longevity? (Washington Post 2007) Boomers much less likely to smoke- but large surveys are consistently finding that they tend to describe themselves as less hale and hearty than their forebears did at the same age. They are more likely to report difficulty climbing stairs, getting up from a chair and doing other routine activities, as well as more chronic problems such as high cholesterol, blood pressure and diabetes.
Two-thirds of Americans are overweight, and those extra pounds make joints wear out more quickly, boost cholesterol and blood pressure, and raise the risk of a host of debilitating health problems.
boomers tend to report more stress than earlier generations -- from their jobs, their commutes, taking care of their parents and their kids -- all of which can take a physical toll, which is compounded by having less support from extended families and communities
It is unclear whether boomers are really sicker or are simply more health-conscious by dint of being better educated and having better access to information. They may also have higher expectations, making them more likely to notice and complain about aches and pains that earlier generations would have accepted as just part of getting older.
"Until now people have been living longer and living longer without the need for assistance -- they can dress themselves and take care of themselves. But it looks like we may be on the verge of a change where we'll have an increasing proportion of the elderly needing assistance, and possibly a decline in life expectancy."
From personal experience as a runner for over 42 years, any extra pounds is simply asking for problems. 10 extra pounds makes a material difference on your joints- even if you are not running. You really slow down in all aspects of life. But I tend to see more and more people that are significantly overweight. I suppose one can stay alive longer through drugs- therefore keeping the life expectancy high- but the debilitating effects overall makes one wonder if it is worth it. I know that exercising is not easy- but I haven't found much in life that is. Some things are simply hard.
LIVING: (2007)A male reaching age 65 has a 50% of making age 85 and a 25% chance in living beyond 92. Women live two to three years longer than males .. For a couple reaching age 65, either the husband or wife has a 50% chance of living beyond 92 and a 25% of living beyond 97.
To Insure Longevity Risk Or Not: That Is The Question National Underwriter
Longevity- (2007) U.S. is only 42nd in Life Expectancy Americans are living longer than ever, but not as long as people in 41 other countries. For decades, the United States has been slipping in international rankings of life expectancy, as other countries improve health care, nutrition and lifestyles. A baby born in the United States in 2004 will live an average of 77.9 years, giving America a rank of 42nd worldwide. That is down from 11th two decades earlier, according to international numbers provided by the Census Bureau and domestic numbers from the National Center for Health Statistics. Countries that surpass the U.S. include Japan and most of Europe, as well as Jordan and the Cayman Islands. Andorra, a tiny country in the Pyrenees Mountains between France and Spain, had the longest life expectancy, at 83.5 years. It was followed by Japan, Macau, San Marino and Singapore. Swaziland, in sub-Saharan Africa - part of a region that has been hit hard by an epidemic of HIV and AIDS, as well as famine and civil strife - has the shortest lifespan, at 34.1 years. Researchers said several factors have contributed to the United States' falling behind other industrialized nations. A major one is that 45 million Americans lack health insurance. Among the other factors: Adults in the United States have one of the highest obesity rates in the world. Racial disparities are also a factor: black Americans have an average life expectancy of 73.3 years, five years shorter than white Americans. Another reason for the U.S. drop in the ranking is that the Census Bureau now tracks life expectancy for a lot more countries - 222 in 2004 - than it did in the 1980s. "Many Americans would definitely be living longer if everyone had health insurance,"DEATHS: FINAL DATA FOR 2005,: (2008) The CDC presents a wide range of data about dying in2005. Overall, in 2005, a total of 2,448,017 resident deaths were registered in the United States. The report also finds that life expectancy at birth was 77.8 years, the same as in 2004. More specifically, life expectancy was 80.4 years for females and 75.2 years for males. In addition, life expectancy increased 0.1 year for the black population to a record high of 73.2 years, and for the white population remained the same as that in 2004 at 78.3 years. The difference in life expectancy between the white and black populations in 2005 was 5.1 years, which was a 0.1-year decrease from the 2004 gap between the two races and was the smallest gap ever recorded.
Age-adjusted death rates associated with 11 of the 15 leading causes of death dropped significantly between 2005 and 20006, researchers say.
CDC researchers say life expectancy for men ages 60 to 70 increased by about 0.23 years, and that life expectancy increased 0.1 years for men ages 70 to 100.
Life expectancy increased 0.27 years for women ages 60 to 70, and 0.18 years for women in the 70-100 age group.
Traditionally, women older than 65 have been twice as likely as older men to need nursing home care.
Life expectancy at birth hit a new record high in 2006 of 78.1 years, a 0.3 increase from 2005. Record high life expectancy was recorded for both white males and black males (76 years and 70 years, respectively) as well as for white females and black females (81 years and 76.9 years).
The preliminary number of deaths in the United States in 2006 was 2,425,900, a 22,117 decrease from the 2005 total. With a rapidly growing older population, declines in the number of deaths (as opposed to death rates) are unusual, and the 2006 decline is likely the result of more mild influenza mortality in 2006 compared with 2005.
Between 2005 and 2006, the largest decline in age-adjusted death rates occurred for influenza and pneumonia, with a 12.8 percent decline. Other declines were observed for chronic lower respiratory diseases (6.5 percent), stroke (6.4 percent), heart disease (5.5 percent), diabetes (5.3 percent), hypertension (5 percent), chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (3.3 percent), suicide (2.8 percent), septicemia or blood poisoning (2.7 percent), cancer (1.6 percent) and accidents (1.5 percent).
There were an estimated 12,045 deaths from HIV/AIDS in 2006, and age-adjusted death rates from the disease declined 4.8% from 2005.
The preliminary infant mortality rate for 2006 was 6.7 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, a 2.3 percent decline from the 2005 rate of 6.9.
Alzheimer’s disease passed diabetes to become the sixth leading cause of death in the United States in 2006. An estimated 72,914 Americans died of Alzheimer’s disease in 2006. However, the preliminary age-adjusted death rate from Alzheimer’s did not change significantly between 2005 and 2006.Really old: Among today's 65-and-older population, average life expectancy for American men and women is 17 and 20 years, respectively. Nearly one-third (30 percent) of all women and almost 20 percent of men age 65 can expect to reach 90 years old
Old is getting older: (2008)
Life underwriters may be starting to think of age 70 as the new age 65.
Back in 2000, the majority of underwriters who participated in a Society of Actuaries survey on older age underwriting said the “older age group” included individuals ages 60 to 65.
Just 6 years later, 60% of the underwriters who participated in a follow-up survey said old age starts at ages 70 and up. Over that same period, the maximum issue age the underwriters said they would consider accepting for any life coverage increased to 85, from 80,
“The top 3 indicators are current health, cognitive function and frailty in issuing policies for those age 70+
British life expectrancy:
The average woman born in 2006 is likely to live 2.7 years longer than one born in 1992 while men can expect to live 3.8 years longer.
The data show significant improvements in life expectancy both at birth and for those aged 65 of both genders and in all geographical regions of the country. But what is most striking is that life expectancy and improvements in life expectancy are strongest in parts of the country where incomes are highest.
Actuarial studies for years have demonstrated the gap between the wealthiest and poorest members of society, as well as that between men and women. Indeed, it is common for life assurers selling annuities to charge lower prices to people living in postal codes where median income is lower. That is because they are not expected to live as long and the payout period is shorter.