ERROLD F.MOODY JR.
2295 W. Ave 133
San Leandro, CA 94577
Phone & Fax 510 352-4127
September 8, 1995
XYZ Coproration
La Cienega Blvd.
Inglewood, CA 90301
RE: 401(k) Investment Selections
Dear Mr.
Pursuant to your request, I have conducted a review of the mutual funds your
company utilizes for their 401(k) plan in conjunction with the requirements
and fiduciary obligations as identified in ERISA code section 404(c). I addressed
the issues of performance, fees and current teachings in securities applications.
Unfortunately, it is my opinion that the use of these funds could subject
XXXXXX Training Corporation and its selection committee and officers to liability
due to the lack of diversification, onerous fees and expenses as well as
the sole use of managed funds. I will address these issues as follows with
the first area focusing on established teachings in the field.
Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street and Professsor
at the University of Chicago, as well as many other pundits of managed
funds have consistently studied and verified that the average MANAGED mutual
fund does NOT outproduce the S&P 500 index. William Sharpe, who won a
Nobel prize in economics for his studies on securities, noted that on a net
of expense basis, in the aggregate, fund and institutional managers will
tend to underperform the market by an amount equal to the fees that they
charge for managing the portfolio, plus associated costs. Vanguard's Bogle's
study of the Wilshire 5000 Index from 1971 to 1990 tended to show exactly
that- professional managers underperformed the index by an average of 1.8%
per year- approximately the cost of managing the fund; 1% for management
fee, 0.5% in fund transaction costs and 0.3% due to cash positions required
by investor inflows and outflows. Another study by Brinson, Hood and Beebower
of the quarterly returns of 91 large pension funds between 1974 to 1983 compared
the returns from the asset classes they were investing in. 93.6% of the return
was explained by the movements in the underlying asset classes they were
investing in. They also showed that active managers, in the aggregate,
underperformed the benchmarks by 1.10% a year. In other words, the
active selection of stock did little to nothing to the overall return- it
was where the money was invested that made the difference.
Money Magazine (August, 1995), though certainly not an education tool in
itself, also had a lengthy commentary regarding how passive investments (index
funds) should be considered because of the lack of management expertise in
consistently beating or even meeting the S&P 500 Index annual returns.
A study by Barksdale and Green of 144 institutional equity portfolios over
the rolling 10 year periods between January 1, 1975 and December 31, 1989
showed that portfolios that finished the first five years in the top quintile
were actually the least likely to finish in the top half
over the next five years. The results were entirely random. That meant that
what might have beaten the market for a certain period of time had little
consistency in doing so in the near future. Robert Stalla, instructor for
Chartered Financial Analysts, stated in his material that "a properly diversified
portfolio should be utilized first in many portfolios unless there is a
compelling reason to do otherwise". Most recently, Jack Beebe, Director
of Research for the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco and a former stock
and bond analyst, stated that "I learned that you cannot easily beat the
market" and uses mostly index funds in his portfolio. The point with this
limited commentary is that 401(k) funds, since they are limited in number,
should at least offer a S&P 500 index fund as well as an Intermediate
Bond index fund since these could/should be the major platforms from which
an investor then moves. That is not to say that an investor MUST use them,
but that they are made available. Without adhering to basic investment teachings,
XXXXX Training Corporation is probably at risk in the future if the
funds actually selected underperform baseline indexes- particularly when
high fees are also noted.
Admittedly, this review is not to suggest that managed funds cannot or do
not provide returns exceeding the S&P 500 index. A study by Lipper found
that, in the extreme, with the very good and the very bad funds, there does
tend to be repetitive performance under similar conditions. Therefore, from
the vast universe of funds, it is possible to use a fund(s) that can consistently
outproduce the market- at least for some period of time. But another study
reviewed the Forbes Honor Roll over periods of 1980- 1984 and 1986- 1990.
Only once did those in the honor roll outperform, in the
aggregate, the S&P 500 index- and that by a very slight margin in the
first five year period. Further, the group never outperformed both the index
and the average equity fund during any five year periods. So, since a 401(k)
plan offers normally just a few funds from one fund family, the odds of one
of those funds consistently outproducing an index, on a risk adjusted basis,
is relatively remote. It again reinforces the necessity of the offering of
some index funds.
The above is corroborated by the returns of the funds selected. The Basic
Value (mostly growth but with some income) has generally underperformed the
market. The Capital Growth (mostly growth but with convertible securities
and cash) and the Global Allocation Fund (both US and Foreign securities)
have both consistently underperformed the index for all periods. That does
not mean that an investor may not wish to use them nor that they might outperform
an index. But when employees have NO CHOICE but to pick a fund(s) that has
consistently underperformed the market, I believe the company is at risk
for future liability in not recognizing basic investment teachings and reflecting
that in the offerings.
While the B category funds (all the above) are exempt from the back end loads
under a retirement plan agreement with Merrill Lynch, they still are subject
to a 1.00% 12b-1 fee for eight years on the Global Allocation, Basic Value
and Capital Fund, a .75% 12b-1 fee for ten years on the High Income and
Investment Grade portfolios and a .50% 12b-1 fee for ten years on the
Intermediate Bond portfolio. Even though most of the 12b-1 fees are reduced
to "just" .25% at those times, the cumulative 12b-1 fees are comparable to
a 6.25% (6.75% at the discretion of Merrill Lynch) total load. Additionally,
high 12b-1 fees on bond funds simply reduce return overall since appreciation
is not a usual consideration for bond funds today.
All the funds must attempt to outperform an index just to account for these
fees- and have essentially been unable to do so. As regards bond funds, it
is generally held that bond investment and returns are effectively limited
for all portfolios of similar ilk and that the only way one fund can outproduce
another is to take more risk- either through lower rated bonds or by use
of derivatives. The returns on the Intermediate and Corporate bond portfolio
have clearly underperformed the indexes. The High Income portfolio, as compared
to Vanguard's High Income portfolio, shows a lower return for almost all
periods and with higher risk. While I am certainly not advocating Vanguard
as your fund choice, it would be utilized as a gauge in almost all law suits
regarding the suitability of fund selection.
In conjunction with the above, it is necessary to relate how the overall
fees compare to industry standards. I have included several performance reports
for Vanguard since they are the industry gauge for low costs. The difference
in fees is most notable on bond funds. Merrill's High Income management fee
is 1.29%- Vanguard is .35%. Merrill's Intermediate portfolio fee is 1.04%
while Vanguard charges .18%. There are other issues that could substantiate
the higher fees- service is one- but they still must be viewed in terms of
performance.
FUND EXPENSES AND 12B-1 FEE COMPARISON
US Stock Fund Average (1994) 1.29%
Merrill Lynch Basic Value Fund 1.55%
Vanguard 500 Index 0.19%
Merrill Lynch Capital (Balanced) 1.55%
Vanguard Balanced Index 0.20%
International Diversified Fund Average 1.77%
Merrill Lynch Global Allocation 1.91%
Vanguard International Growth 0.46%
Corporate Bonds Average (1994) 0.84
Merrill Lynch Corporate 1.29
Vanguard Corporate 0.22%
Merrill Lynch Intermediate 1.04%
Vanguard Intermediate Corporate 0.18%
Merrill Lynch High Yield 1.29%
Vanguard High Yield 0.34%
The above is not a direct comparison due to differences in fund terminology
and use. Nonetheless, the fee comparison easily addresses what I believe
is a major "sticking point" that would hurt the company in litigation-
particularly with bond funds. It is almost impossible to provide acceptable
returns on these funds without taking on additional risk.
In reference to returns, a few examples would suffice.
RETURNS VERSUS THE S&P 500 INDEX (September 8, 1995, Source: Micropal)
One Year Three Years Five Years
S&P 500 Index 21.31% 13.69% 14.91%
Capital Fund 15.52% 11.92% 12.68%
Basic Value 16.85% 15.73% 14.59%
Global allocation 9.54% 11.56 14.07
SUMMARY
The Merrill Lynch Bond Funds should underproduce most other bond funds of
similar nature unless they take more risk because of the very high 12b-1
fees. All the corporate bond funds can utilize futures and options (used
for hedging interest rate movements) but can have as much as 25% of the portfolio
in foreign securities. Under assumed conditions of relatively stable interest
rates and discarding the use of foreign investments, bond funds cannot count
on appreciation through lower interest rates and must focus on yields. It
is my opinion that the Intermediate and Investment Grade portfolios will
underperform the basic bond index while the High Yield fund would need to
use higher risk (lower rated) securities (which it currently appears to be
doing) to offset the additional fees. It is proper to note however that it
has done quite well in the past few years.
And while the Capital and Basic Value Funds are not bad per se, the high
expenses indicate that, over time, they would probably underperform the market.
The Capital fund also allows up to 25% in foreign securities- a difficult
area to address in the overall risk analysis, particularly as a balanced
fund.
The Global Allocation Fund uses both US and Foreign stocks in a NON diversified
portfolio that also allows up to 25% of assets in precious metals, indexed
and inverse securities (derivatives), real estate, up to 35% in low rated
bonds, etc. A most difficult fund to address risk. Even if they don't use
any derivatives, the issue is a cause for alarm for employees. Further, most
funds offer only an annual accounting of the funds investments and it might
be difficult to assess what the fund actually invests in on an ongoing basis.
The Basic Value fund looks for undervalued stock that might appreciate. However
most teachings refer to that philosophy as cyclical in nature. Though it
is far too early to tell, the current one year return, which is significantly
under the S&P 500, might be an indication of a change in investment
direction.
Investments in stocks and bonds since 1984- save primarily for 1987 and 1994-
have found a relatively strong economy and lower interest rates. 1992, 1993
and 1994 were the three least volatile years in the history of the stock
market. A softer economy or a return to more normal volatility could cause
more severe difficulties for all these funds since they will be more greatly
impacted by the high fees.
It is my opinion that the 401(k) portfolio should contain at least two basic
index funds (S&P 500 index fund and probably an Intermediate Bond Index
fund) that an employee can read with some relative degree of understanding
and be able to address risk and reward. Further, employees should not be
subject to onerous fees unless they have been completely forewarned of such
fees and have accepted the consequences thereof- a fact that I do not believe
has been disseminated to date. Under the guidelines of 404(c), it is a
requirement that XXXXX Training Corporation accurately reflect the risks
of these funds and offer a presentation of basic investment concepts (assuming
it does not wish to retain further liability for inadequate retirement accounts
of the employees). I do not think that these funds will attain basic
comprehension by employees nor, upon proper notice, will they willingly accept
the high 12b-1 fees- which are an anathema in current investment teachings.
The company may well be subject to fiduciary liability later on for a poor
selection of funds and fund family. It is not my position or attempt to make
legal opinions- however as an arbitrator and expert witness in securities
cases, I believe that these opinions would be supported by a properly presented
case to a jury. I would suggest your corporate attorney be involved with
a review of this report.
I recommend a complete review by the selection committee to consider
incorporating a different fund family with more normal fees. There are plenty
to choose from.
Very Truly,